UFC Predictions: UFC 284: Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski

This weekend sees the biggest UFC event in some time. The promotion is set to travel to Perth, Australia, for a major pay-per-view featuring two title bouts.

UFC 284: Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski is perhaps not the deepest event in recent memory, but its top two bouts more than make up for that.

Makhachev. Volkanovski. Lightweight Title. P4P Status. Perth. February. OFFICIAL 🤩

#UFC284 https://t.co/AWag8K4PSE

So with a number of other stars in action alongside the headliners, this is an event not to be missed.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 284: Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski.

#1. UFC lightweight title: Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski

Can Alexander Volkanovski become a double champion in his home country of Australia this weekend?

While this lightweight title fight is somehow not getting as much publicity as it deserves, the truth is that it’s one of the best fights booked by the UFC in recent years.

Not only does it pit the world’s best lightweight in Islam Makhachev against the world’s best featherweight in Alexander Volkanovski, it’s also a fascinating clash of styles. So, who will win?

While there are tons of nuances and X-factors to consider, the most simple way of looking at this fight is like this: if Makhachev can take Volkanovski down and keep him there, then he should win. If he can’t, then ‘Alexander the Great’ should be able to find a way to come out on top.

In that sense, then, it should be more difficult for Makhachev to find a way to come out on top. Volkanovski’s takedown defense is fantastic, and even when he is taken down, he’s difficult to keep there.

However, it is notable that he hasn’t fought a great wrestler in a long time. The last proper wrestler he fought was Chad Mendes, who was past his prime at the point of their fight. ‘Money’ still managed three takedowns, even though he ended up being knocked out.

More interestingly, Makhachev doesn’t shoot in for takedowns quite like a regular wrestler. Sure, he can catch his opponents with double legs and put them down, but he also favors trips and throws from the clinch more than most.

On the ground, meanwhile, he’s much more likely to hunt for submissions than attempt to pound his way to a win, and that makes him very dangerous.

After all, Volkanovski came close to being submitted by Brian Ortega twice in their epic clash. While he did escape, Makhachev is probably much stronger than ‘T-City’ and possesses just as much skill.

Can Volkanovski stop Makhachev on the feet? That’s hard to say. He definitely packs power, but who knows how it’ll translate to 155 pounds? In reality, he’s more of a combination striker who wins his fights by putting volume on his foes until they wilt.

Makhachev, on the other hand, does hold knockout power at 155 pounds. Like his mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov, he’s an underrated striker, and we’ve seen him stop foes with punches as well as knock Charles Oliveira down in their title fight last year.

ISLAM MAKHACHEV IS THE UNDISPUTED LW CHAMPION OF THE WORLD! 🏆

[ @MakhachevMMA | #UFC280 ] https://t.co/aJzHlS6fxF

Overall, it won’t please the Australian crowd, but the styles here seem to favor Makhachev. He’s taken bigger, more powerful men than Volkanovski down, and ‘Alexander the Great’ will probably be taken by surprise by his power in the clinch and on the ground.

Can Makhachev finish Volkanovski? It’s hard to say, but if he can put him in the same positions that Ortega did, then it feels likely. The pick, therefore, is Makhachev via submission.

The Pick: Makhachev via third-round submission

#2. UFC interim featherweight title: Yair Rodriguez vs. Josh Emmett

Can Yair Rodriguez claim featherweight gold this weekend?

With reigning UFC featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski fighting for the lightweight crown this weekend, it made sense for the promotion to book an interim title fight here.

Whether this is the correct fight to make, however, is a question worth asking. Did former titleholder Max Holloway or unbeaten prospect Arnold Allen, who fight later in 2023, not deserve a shot over Josh Emmett and Yair Rodriguez?

After all, Emmett is riding a five-fight win streak but hasn’t really beaten anyone all that notable, while Rodriguez lost to Holloway in 2021 and his only win since 2019 came via an injury against Brian Ortega.

Regardless of that, this should be a fun fight. Emmett is the more straightforward fighter, as he packs plenty of punching power, but is more conventional. Rodriguez, on the other hand, is fond of throwing low-percentage strikes throughout a bout and somehow making them work.

Creative. Explosive. Unpredictable.

@PanteraUFC returns this Saturday at #UFCDenver! https://t.co/aaPvlZh9eO

Who will win this one, then? Realistically, Emmett probably has the slightly better chance. ‘The Fighting Falmer’ has an underrated wrestling game to go with his punching power, and if Rodriguez gets too wild, then he could definitely catch him with a vicious shot and put him out.

However, Emmett is also not the athlete that ‘El Pantera’ is, nor can he keep the kind of pace that the Mexican has shown himself capable of keeping over the years.

More importantly, while Rodriguez is known for being flashy, he’s also tough as hell. He’s taken crazy punishment in some of his fights and has only ever been stopped once in the UFC, with the doctors calling off his 2017 bout with Frankie Edgar when his eye swelled.

This one will be close to call, but it’s easy to imagine a scenario that sees Emmett having some success with his meat-and-potatoes striking before falling victim to a crazy shot from nowhere from Rodriguez.

That’d make for the better fights going forward, and so with everything considered, ‘El Pantera’ via KO is the pick.

The Pick: Rodriguez via second-round KO

#3. UFC 284: The Main Card

Jack Della Maddalena will be looking for another KO on this weekend's main card

This weekend’s main card features some intriguing bouts, although it’s debatable whether they warranted their placement over some of the preliminary clashes.

In the welterweight division, Jack Della Maddalena takes on Randy Brown. Maddalena is one of the best prospects to come out of Australia in a while and so it makes sense to showcase him here.

He has 13 wins to his name, three of them coming via KO inside the octagon, so can he make Brown his fourth victim?

SEE YOU IN PERTH, JDM. 😮‍💨

🇦🇺 Jack Della Maddalena looking as good as ever as he goes 3 for 3 inside the Octagon! #UFCVegas65 https://t.co/vBG6FRtmEW

‘Rude Boy’ is on a good run of his own right, last beating veteran Francisco Trinaldo. However, despite his skills, he’s not the most durable fighter, having been stopped on two occasions since arriving in the promotion.

Maddalena will need to be careful, particularly due to Brown’s long reach, but this should be a winnable fight for him, and so the pick is the Australian via KO.

In a heavyweight clash, Justin Tafa faces Parker Porter. Quite how this one made the main card is anyone’s guess, but hopefully it’ll be a fun brawl for as long as it lasts.

Tafa clearly has the advantage when it comes to striking power – we saw that when he knocked out Harry Hunsucker in 2021. But if he can’t put Porter away quickly, he could end up being grounded out here.

This is a tricky one to pick, but it’d definitely make the crowd happier to see Tafa win via KO, so hopefully that’s the result we get.

Finally, in the light heavyweight division, Jimmy Crute returns to face Alonzo Menifield. Both of these men have proven to be strong, if limited fighters.

Crute has skills in all areas, but also has a tendency to leave himself open. Menifield, on the other hand, hits like a truck, but has shown serious trouble with takedowns and on the ground before.

These elbows were VICIOUS 💪😤 #UFCVegas56 https://t.co/o7CSbq0jIy

On the face of it, this should be a winnable fight for Crute, who has more overall skills and has shown he can fight smart before. However, he also hasn’t fought in over a year and Menifield has picked up two KO’s in his last two bouts. Therefore, in a mild upset, the pick is Menifield via KO.

#4. UFC 284: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC light heavyweight bout: Tyson Pedro vs. Modestas Bukauskas

UFC featherweight bout: Joshua Culibao vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan

UFC flyweight bout: Shannon Ross vs. Kleydson Rodrigues

UFC lightweight bout: Jamie Mullarkey vs. Francisco Prado

UFC featherweight bout: Jack Jenkins vs. Don Shainis

UFC strawweight bout: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Elise Reed

UFC featherweight bout: Shane Young vs. Blake Bilder

UFC lightweight bout: Zubaira Tukhugov vs. Elves Brenner