UFC Predictions - UFC 291: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje 2
The UFC heads to Salt Lake City, Utah for a major pay-per-view this weekend, and on paper, it looks like one of the best shows in some time.
UFC 291 features a huge rematch between Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje for the ‘BMF’ title in the headliner, and a number of other thrilling bouts up and down the card.
This event promises to be a can’t-miss one, and so hopefully, it delivers the goods.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 291: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje 2.
#1. UFC BMF Title: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje
While it’s arguable that the UFC’s ‘BMF’ title is nothing more than a gimmick, it’s probably fair to suggest that firstly, this rematch should be a fantastic bout. Secondly, it’s also fair to suggest that the ‘BMF’ epithet fits both Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier down to a tee.
Both men are amongst the most entertaining fighters on the UFC’s roster right now, and it’s almost impossible to recall a dull fight involving either man. The big question, of course, is who will win?
‘The Highlight’ and ‘The Diamond’ first faced off back in April 2018. At the time, Poirier was still quite new to his career at 155lbs, while Gaethje was relatively new to the promotion altogether.
The fight was a tumultuous one that saw both men hurt each other on multiple occasions on the feet, but in the end, Poirier’s pressure-boxing game and heavy hands were able to hurt Gaethje, allowing a fourth round finish.
OH MY GOD DUSTIN POIRIER!!!
#UFCGlendale pic.twitter.com/i7QVcWxpWa
In the years that have followed, though, it’s probably arguable that Gaethje has developed a little more. He remains a hugely heavy-handed puncher who also possesses brutal leg kicks, but he’s much better from a defensive standpoint now and tends to attack his opponents with more of a gameplan.
‘The Highlight’ still allows himself to be drawn into wild brawls at times, and while that approach took him past Michael Chandler, it led directly to his loss to Charles Oliveira, too.
Poirier is largely the same fighter he was in 2018, although he comes into his fights with far more confidence than ever before after his big wins over the likes of Conor McGregor and Max Holloway.
Despite this, ‘The Diamond’ still isn’t quite as durable as Gaethje, and he was also hurt by Oliveira before falling to the Brazilian. Sure, he survived the storm in the first fight, but can he do the same against the newer, more measured and controlled Gaethje?
It’s a very fair question to ask, and one that should probably worry fans of ‘The Diamond’. Overall, this fight should be just as wild as the first one, but it’s hard to look past the smarter, more brutal Gaethje. The pick is ‘The Highlight’ via TKO.
The Pick: Gaethje via second round TKO
#2. UFC light-heavyweight bout: Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira
While this fight isn’t for the UFC light-heavyweight title as some fans suspected it might end up being after Jamahal Hill vacated his crown last week, it’s still a great fight.
More to the point, it’s a huge test for Alex Pereira following his first loss in the octagon earlier this year. The former middleweight champion suffered a devastating knockout loss to old rival Israel Adesanya in their third bout, seemingly ending their feud.
While he could’ve pushed for another title bout, instead he’s chosen to move to 205lbs, which is probably a good decision given the scary weight cuts he was partaking in.
‘Poatan’ has not been thrown an easy debut in his new division, though. Jan Blachowicz is not only a former titleholder at 205lbs in his own right, but he of course defeated Adesanya when he attempted to become a double champion in 2021.
There are a couple of reasons why Blachowicz may not be capable of repeating that performance against Pereira, though.
Firstly, he was able to take Adesanya down largely due to brute force, perhaps because ‘The Last Stylebender’ wasn’t big enough for 205lbs, something that cannot be said for the hulking ‘Poatan’
Secondly, Blachowicz hasn’t actually won a fight per say since that win, which came well over two years ago. He did have his hand raised against Aleksandar Rakic last year, but that came when the Austrian blew his knee out in the third round.
Perhaps most importantly, Blachowicz is now 40 years old, and he’s been fighting for a long time now, dating back to 2007. Quite how much he’s got left in the tank is very debatable, and while he’s largely durable, he has suffered four losses via finish during his octagon career.
‘Poatan’ can probably be outworked on the ground, but it’s highly unlikely that Blachowicz can outstrike him, and it’s almost a given that if the Brazilian lands that lethal left hook of his, this fight will be over.
+410 𝐓𝐇𝐀𝐓 𝐋𝐄𝐅𝐓 𝐇𝐎𝐎𝐊 𝐈𝐒 𝐋𝐄𝐓𝐇𝐀𝐋 😈
Alex Pereira (+100 ML) gets the win over Sean Strickland
Pereira KO/TKO in Round 1 ➡️ +410
pic.twitter.com/eIl4MvGbB6
Blachowicz is definitely capable of winning, but it feels much more likely that at some point, he’ll get a little slack with his defense and allow Pereira to crack him with the left hand, bringing a nasty end to proceedings.
The Pick: Pereira via first round KO
#3. UFC 291: The Main Card
In a welterweight bout, Stephen Thompson faces off with fellow striker Michel Pereira. It’s been a while since we’ve seen either of these men, with ‘Wonderboy’ having last fought in December 2022, and Pereira back in May 2022.
Pereira has developed a lot since his wild debut in the octagon back in 2019, and he’s now a dangerous striker who can also power his foes to the ground as well as knock them out. Despite this, he’s probably still not quite as technical as ‘Wonderboy’.
The result of this one should depend how much Thompson has left in the tank at the age of 40. His only recent losses have come to heavy grapplers, after all. If he’s still capable of picking an opponent apart, then he’ll probably win this one by decision.
In a lightweight clash, Tony Ferguson returns to take on Bobby Green. Ferguson hasn’t been right since his loss to Justin Gaethje back in 2020, and is now on a five-fight losing streak. Many fans, in fact, wanted to see him retire after his September loss to Nate Diaz.
Nate Diaz taps out Tony Ferguson in the 4th round.
#UFC279 pic.twitter.com/SMah2OZoP2
Green, however, may be a slightly fairer opponent for him. At the age of 36, ‘King’ is probably past his best too, and he hasn’t won since February 2022, losing two fights via TKO and also seeing his clash with Jared Gordon end in a No Contest.
This one is hard to pick purely because of how shopworn Ferguson has looked recently, but then he hasn’t been losing to scrubs. With that considered, the pick – albeit risky – is ‘El Cucuy’.
Finally, in a welterweight bout, Michael Chiesa squares off with Kevin Holland. Holland has looked good since his return to 170lbs, winning three of his last five bouts with his only losses coming to Khamzat Chimaev and Stephen Thompson.
Chiesa is a highly dangerous opponent, though, as he’s capable of stifling ‘The Trailblazer’ in the same way that the likes of Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori did. ‘Maverick’ does struggle on the feet, though, and if he can’t take Holland down, he could be in danger.
This is a hugely difficult fight to pick overall, but based on recent form and the fact that he rarely seems to get hurt, the pick is Chiesa via decision.
#4. UFC 291: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC welterweight bout: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Trevin Giles
UFC heavyweight bout: Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima
UFC middleweight bout: Roman Kopylov vs. Claudio Ribeiro
UFC welterweight bout: Jake Matthews vs. Darrius Flowers
UFC flyweight bout: CJ Vergara vs. Vinicius Salvador
UFC welterweight bout: Matthew Semelsberger vs. Uros Medic
UFC flyweight bout: Miranda Maverick vs. Priscila Cachoeira