UFC Predictions: UFC 293: Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland

The UFC is set to visit Sydney, Australia, this weekend for the first time since 2017 with what should be a big pay-per-view.

UFC 293: Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland isn’t the strongest overall card on paper, but it should still feature some solid fights and plenty of action.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 293: Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland.

#1. UFC middleweight title: Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland

Most fans expect Israel Adesanya to dispatch Sean Strickland this weekend [Image Credit: @stylebender on Instagram]

If we’re really honest, this isn’t the middleweight title bout that most fans were hoping the UFC would put together next.

The fight that everyone really wanted would’ve seen Israel Adesanya defending his title against Dricus du Plessis.

‘Stillknocks’ became only the second man, after Adesanya, to beat former middleweight champ Robert Whittaker earlier this year, knocking him out in stunning fashion. More to the point, the South African had a ready-made, bitter rivalry with ‘The Last Stylebender’, making their potential fight a huge one.

However, the promotion wanted Adesanya to headline this weekend and du Plessis simply wasn’t ready, and so Sean Strickland has been pushed into the spot instead.

In all honesty, this isn’t a bad fight by any means. Strickland is currently on a two-fight win streak and looked good in dispatching Abus Magomedov in July.

More to the point, ‘Tarzan’ is one of the most charismatic fighters on the roster, even if the trash he’s talked towards Adesanya thus far hasn’t really turned it into a big rivalry or anything just yet.

Unfortunately for Strickland, it’s hard to imagine how he can make this fight a truly competitive one, barring a situation where Adesanya completely overlooks him.

‘Tarzan’ is a big 185lber, he boasts a good reach of 76”, he can sit behind his jab nicely, and he’s also a solid fighter in the clinch and on the ground should the fight hit there.

However, he has a dangerous tendency to hold his chin too high and often drops his hands worryingly low too. More importantly, he isn’t really durable enough to fight that way, particularly not against a sniper like Adesanya.

If Strickland carried one-shot kill power like Alex Pereira – who knocked ‘Tarzan’ out in 2022 – then he’d perhaps be in with a shout here, but that simply isn’t the case. In his seven wins at 185lbs since his 2020 move there, he’s stopped just two opponents.

Adesanya, meanwhile, looked back to his best in his win over Pereira in April and managed to climb over a pretty sizeable mental hurdle in the process. Given his outstanding record, a victory over Strickland here would probably push him towards Anderson Silva territory in the bigger picture.

Overall, barring a freak occurrence, it’s hard to imagine Strickland doing anything to put Adesanya in danger here. It’s more likely that ‘The Last Stylebender’ takes a round to warm up before dispatching his challenger in the second round.

The Pick: Adesanya via second-round KO

#2. UFC heavyweight bout: Tai Tuivasa vs. Alexander Volkov

Tai Tuivasa will be looking for a big win at home this weekend [Image Credit: @bambamtuivasa on Instagram]

While neither of these men will be in line for a UFC heavyweight title shot, even with an impressive win here, this fight should still be a fun one to watch. If nothing else, it’s very unlikely that it’ll go the distance.

Of the two, Alexander Volkov has been on the better form. After losing to Tom Aspinall last summer, he’s torn through Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Alexander Romanov, and looks more aggressive than he once did, being less willing to simply keep his opponents on the end of his huge 80” reach.

Tai Tuivasa, meanwhile, seemed to be sneaking towards a title shot last year after he took out Derrick Lewis. ‘Bam Bam’ found himself on a five-fight win streak, with all of those wins coming via KO.

However, he was then stopped by Ciryl Gane and Sergei Pavlovich, showing that his wild brawling style isn’t always the smartest against the division’s heaviest hitters.

Overall, Tuivasa is deceptively quick for a big guy, hits with insane power, and can take a shot. On the flip side, his ground game is still very much a work in progress, and being willing to absorb the kind of damage he does is always risky at heavyweight.

This one, then, should come down to whether Tuivasa can get inside the reach of Volkov to land the big shot. ‘Drago’ is somewhat chinny, having been hurt or knocked down on a number of occasions during his career, most notably by Lewis in 2018.

However, for the shorter ‘Bam Bam’ to get inside is going to be dangerous, particularly as Volkov’s more aggressive style should leave fewer openings for him. More to the point, if the Russian decides to take Tuivasa down, it’s very likely that the Aussie will be in trouble.

Tuivasa will enjoy a big crowd advantage here, but stylistically, this is a horrible fight for him. Therefore, the pick is Volkov via second-round TKO.

The Pick: Volkov via second-round TKO

#3. UFC 293: The Main Card

The explosive Tyson Pedro features on this weekend's main card [Image Credit: @tyson_pedro on Instagram]

In a flyweight bout, Manel Kape takes on Felipe dos Santos. Kape will undoubtedly be the favorite here. After struggling against some tricky foes in his first couple of bouts, he’s on a three-fight win streak and looks like an explosive title contender.

Dos Santos is making his octagon debut in this fight, and while he is unbeaten, it’s hard to imagine him being able to step in and upset Kape, particularly as ‘Starboy’ is quick even for a 125lber. The pick is Kape via first-round KO.

In a heavyweight clash, Justin Tafa faces Austen Lane. This is a rematch of a fight that took place in June and saw a premature stoppage when Lane suffered an errant eye poke. The former NFL man is still looking for his first win in the octagon, but ignoring that No Contest, he’s on a six-fight win streak.

Tafa, meanwhile, has proven to be beatable if an opponent can drag him into deeper waters, but in a brawl, he’s a nightmare to take on, as he has brutally heavy hands and a strong chin.

Don’t expect this one to go the distance, and as it’s unlikely that Lane will be able to wear Tafa down, the pick is ‘Bad Man’ via KO.

Finally, Tyson Pedro returns to face Anton Turkalj in a light-heavyweight bout. This will be Pedro’s first fight back after he was outworked by Modestas Bukauskas in February, a disappointing showing from a fighter who previously looked like a rapidly improving prospect.

This fight should be better for him, though. Turkalj isn’t the best athlete, hasn’t won in the UFC yet, and looks like a plodding 205lber. On the other hand, Pedro is explosive and has finishing skills in all areas, and his usual recklessness shouldn’t be a huge issue here.

With that in mind, the pick is Pedro via first-round knockout.

#4. UFC 293: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC light-heavyweight bout: Carlos Ulberg vs. Da Un Jung

UFC featherweight bout: Jack Jenkins vs. Chepe Mariscal

UFC lightweight bout: Jamie Mullarkey vs. John Makdessi

UFC lightweight bout: Nasrat Haqparast vs. Landon Quinones

UFC welterweight bout: Mike Mathetha vs. Charlie Radtke

UFC featherweight bout: Shane Young vs. Gabriel Miranda

UFC welterweight bout: Kevin Jousset vs. Kiefer Crosbie