UFC Predictions: UFC 295: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira

This weekend sees the UFC head to New York City’s famous Madison Square Garden for a major pay-per-view.

UFC 295: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira might’ve lost its initial headliner, but it’s still a big card with two title fights on tap.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 295: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira.

#1. UFC light heavyweight title: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira

Can Alex Pereira become a UFC champion again this weekend? [Image Credit: @alexpoatanpereira on Instagram]

To say the UFC’s light heavyweight division has been messy for a while now would be an understatement, but hopefully this weekend will represent a new beginning for the weight class.

Jiri Prochazka, of course, won the light heavyweight title from Glover Teixeira in one of the best fights of 2022. In a true gutter-war, both men took serious punishment, but ‘Denisa’ was eventually able to find a dominant position and choke out his more experienced foe.

Unfortunately, the Czech native then destroyed his shoulder, forcing him to vacate the crown. When a fight for the vacant title between Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev failed to decide a new champ – going to a draw instead – the UFC then made a strange move.

Rather than calling an immediate rematch, they booked a title fight between Teixeira and Jamahal Hill, which Hill won before tearing his achilles this past summer, resulting in him vacating too.

During this period, Alex Pereira moved up from 185 pounds and beat Blachowicz. Realistically, this is probably the best title fight that could be made right now, albeit one that is a little unfair to Ankalaev.

So which of these two men will come out on top? It’s a bit of a head-turner, to say the least.

On one hand, Prochazka has far more experience at 205 pounds, and holds wins over top fighters like Teixeira and Dominick Reyes. He hits like a truck, is a wildly creative striker, and has an underrated, if chaotic ground game.

On the other hand, though, he’s coming back from a very serious injury after a lengthy period on the shelf, and he’s up against quite a nasty opponent stylistically.

Pereira is unproven at light heavyweight, but he showed against Blachowicz that he isn’t going to be easy to muscle around. Already a huge 185lber, ‘Poatan’ doesn’t appear outsized as a light heavyweight. If anything, he could be stronger than before.

While his ground game is still a question mark, getting him down now looks harder than ever, and on the feet, his left hook is as deadly a weapon as any in the promotion.

Prochazka can definitely win this fight if he can make things crazy and eventually wear Pereira down, dragging him to the ground for a submission. Based on how ‘Poatan’ was also knocked out by Israel Adesanya, the right shot could put him away too.

However, whether ‘Denisa’ is even going to be close to his best after such a layoff is anyone’s guess. More to the point, he’s so wild in his attacks that for a counter striker as slick as Pereira, finding a nasty shot going backwards might be surprisingly easy.

With all of this considered, the pick is ‘Poatan’ to find a counter shot and finish Prochazka off in the second round after a frenetic beginning.

The Pick: Pereira via second-round KO

#2. UFC interim heavyweight title: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall

Can Tom Aspinall become the UK's latest UFC champion? [Image Credit: @tomaspinallofficial on Instagram]

Initially, the heavyweight title bout here would’ve seen Jon Jones defending his crown against Stipe Miocic, but Jones ended up withdrawing with an injury. Quite why Miocic wasn’t kept on the card is anyone’s guess, but realistically, this fight might work better anyway.

Sure, Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall are only fighting for an interim title, but the smart money would be on both Jones and Miocic – assuming they face off – to retire after their bout anyway. Therefore, the likely outcome is that the winner of this one will find their title upgraded.

Which man will take it, then? Unsurprisingly, it’s a tough call to make.

Pavlovich is currently riding a six-fight win streak, and is arguably the hardest hitter in the division. Like Ivan Drago in Rocky IV, whatever the Russian hits, he seems to destroy. The likes of Curtis Blaydes, Tai Tuivasa, and Derrick Lewis have all been put down by his lethal hands.

There are definitely some question marks on Pavlovich. His lone defeat came back in 2018, when Alistair Overeem grounded and pounded him into defeat. Since then, he hasn’t really gone to the ground, and because he’s finished all of his foes so quickly, we don’t really know if he’s improved there.

Likewise, his cardio is also a big question mark, purely because he simply hasn’t left the first round.

Aspinall doesn’t have the big name wins of Pavlovich, but he’s arguably a little more proven. He’s finished six opponents in the octagon, knocking out the likes of Marcin Tybura and Sergei Spivac and submitting Alexander Volkov and Andrei Arlovski.

The native of Manchester is a huge heavyweight, standing at 6’5” and weighing nearly 260 pounds. However, he moves like a much smaller man, and arguably has a smoother boxing game than Pavlovich even if he lacks the ruthless power.

More to the point, though, he possesses dangerous takedowns and is a lethal finisher from top position, and in fact was more known as a grappler prior to arriving in the UFC back in 2020.

Essentially, both men are capable of winning this fight, and if Pavlovich can catch Aspinall cleanly, then he’ll almost certainly knock him out.

However, Aspinall might prove a trickier target than brawlers like Tuivasa and Lewis, and we’ve never really seen him caught yet, as his lone loss came when he blew his knee out in a clash with Blaydes.

Therefore, given that he has more tools in his arsenal, and is more proven as a fight goes deeper, the pick is Aspinall, assuming he can avoid that brutal punching power, of course. The Brit should win this one via TKO, becoming just the third British champion in UFC history.

The Pick: Aspinall via second-round TKO

#3. UFC 295: The Main Card

Talented grappler Mackenzie Dern features on this weekend's main card [Image Credit: @mackenziedern on Instagram]

In a strawweight bout, Mackenzie Dern takes on Jessica Andrade. This one represents another chance for Dern to climb into genuine title contention, as she’s fallen short a couple of times before. Any fighter who beats Andrade tends to make it there, so she’ll be hopeful.

Essentially, this one should come down to whether or not ‘Bate Estaca’ can keep things standing. If she can’t, she may be in trouble as Dern is probably the best grappler in this division, although her takedowns aren’t great.

A few years ago, Andrade probably would’ve been favored to stop the takedown and batter Dern standing, but at this point, the veteran might be close to the end. She’s lost her last three, and two of those losses have come via submission. With that in mind, the smart pick is Dern via tap-out.

In a lightweight clash, Matt Frevola faces Benoit Saint-Denis. This one promises to be exciting, as neither man tends to back down from a brawl. Frevola is on a three-fight win streak, while Saint-Denis is riding four in a row. That means that the winner could rise up into the rankings, too.

So who will take it? Saint-Denis looks like the better grappler. A large 155lber, when he gets his opponents down he seems capable of doing serious damage, and he dealt with Thiago Moises in impressive fashion last time out.

Frevola is a little wilder, but he’s no less dangerous, holding wins over both Jalin Turner and Drew Dober. However, he lacks the brute strength of ‘BSD’ and isn’t that durable. Therefore, the pick is Saint-Denis via TKO.

Finally, Pat Sabatini takes on Diego Lopes in a featherweight tilt. This one looks like a fun bout, as both men have similar records and are largely consummate finishers, too. It’s also a hard one to pick.

With that said, Sabatini has far more experience in the octagon than Lopes, and that could sway things. He’s been around since 2021, and could’ve moved into a ranked spot had he not suffered an upset at the hands of Damon Jackson in 2022.

Lopes, meanwhile, is 1-1 in the promotion, defeating Gavin Tucker but being outworked by Movsar Evloev in his debut. He didn’t do badly against Evloev, though, and had him in trouble on more than one occasion with his grappling.

Basically this should come down to exactly how good Lopes is. He pushed Evloev hard on late notice, and while Sabatini has skills in all areas, he’s probably a step below that kind of level. This could go either way, but the pick is Lopes via decision.

#4. UFC 295: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC flyweight bout: Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa

UFC strawweight bout: Tabatha Ricci vs. Loopy Godinez

UFC lightweight bout: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Viacheslav Borshchev

UFC lightweight bout: Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen

UFC bantamweight bout: John Castaneda vs. Kyung Ho Kang

UFC flyweight bout: Joshua Van vs. Kevin Borjas

UFC featherweight bout: Dennis Buzukja vs. Jamall Emmers