UFC Predictions: UFC 300: Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill - The Main Card
It's finally time for the biggest event in recent years, as UFC 300 goes down from Las Vegas this weekend.
UFC 300: Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill may well be the most stacked event in the promotion's history, with legends, champions and hot up-and-comers across the card.
With that considered, these predictions will focus on the main card only, with separate predictions for the preliminary card to come.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 300: Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill.
#1 UFC light-heavyweight title: Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill
It might not be as glamorous a headliner as UFC 100's Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir clash, but this main event is still a fantastic and intriguing fight for the light-heavyweight title.
The story of the 205 pound title has essentially been an odd one ever since Jiri Prochazka unseated Glover Teixeira for it back in 2022.
Prochazka ended up badly injuring his shoulder, forcing him to vacate before he'd even defended it once.
The promotion then put together a fight between Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev for the vacant crown, only to see that bout go to an odd draw despite most fans believing Ankalaev had won.
The poor nature of that fight meant that Dana White and company decided to skip a rematch altogether, instead elevating Jamahal Hill into a fight with Teixeira, and to the surprise of many, 'Sweet Dreams' picked off his veteran foe to claim the title.
However, like Prochazka, Hill picked up an injury that forced him to vacate. This time, a title fight between the returning Prochazka and former middleweight champ Alex Pereira was made, and 'Poatan' shocked 'BJP', knocking him out to take the gold.
Essentially, then, it's hard to argue that Pereira isn't the rightful champ thanks to his win over Prochazka. Hill does have a claim to the title too, though, having never lost it. So can he reclaim it here?
It's a hard fight to call purely because there's so many question marks around Hill's true title credentials. Sure, he beat Teixeira well, but the Brazilian was also ancient by MMA standards and appeared to have spent the last gas in his tank in his fight with Prochazka.
Outside of that, 'Sweet Dreams' has beaten the likes of Thiago Santos and Johnny Walker via KO, but the truth is that those fighters weren't quite elite-level at the time.
Standing at 6-foot-4, Hill does boast a long 79 inch reach, and we've seen him use that range well, most notably against Teixeira, who couldn't come close to him for the most part.
However, will this help him against Pereira, a man who is a far more proven striker? It's debatable, especially as 'Poatan' stands at the same height and has an equal reach.
Where these two fighters aren't equal is in the realm of experience. Sure, Pereira is still a relative rookie in MMA, but he's been a top-ranked kickboxer for years, possesses excellent fundamentals, a hard chin, and ridiculous power in his punches, particularly his coffin-nail left hand.
'Poatan' does have some question marks hanging over him, namely in his ground game. However, given what we've seen of Hill, who looked like a fish out of water on the mat with Paul Craig, he won't be the man to test him there.
Essentially, this looks like a perfect stylistic match for Pereira, who will likely have more difficult challenges down the line. Expect some fireworks with 'Poatan' coming out on top.
The Pick: Pereira via second round KO
#2 UFC strawweight title: Weili Zhang vs. Yan Xiaonan
Largely, due to the stacked nature of this card, this strawweight title bout seems to be flying way under the radar.
In fact, if things go how they could, some fans might even use this fight as a break of sorts, which is disappointing given how good both fighters are.
Of the two, the current champ Weili Zhang is far more proven. 'Magnum' was tipped for greatness after her 2018 UFC debut, and realized that potential in 2019 when she stopped Jessica Andrade to claim the 115 pound title.
She followed that with a wild win over Joanna Jedrzejczyk in probably the best female fight of all time, only to lose her crown to Rose Namajunas in 2021.
However, with 'Thug Rose' then dropping the title to Carla Esparza, Zhang slid back in, smashed 'The Cookie Monster' to reclaim her crown, and has since defended it against Amanda Lemos.
Yan Xiaonan, meanwhile, has earned her shot off the back of an 8-2 octagon record. She's won her last two bouts, beating Mackenzie Dern and most recently, Andrade.
'Fury' is primarily a striker who uses her range to snipe at her foes. That's how she took out both Dern and Andrade, and also how she previously beat the likes of Claudia Gadelha.
Where she might struggle against her fellow Chinese fighter, though, is on the mat.
Xiaonan has tended to give up takedowns against a number of her opponents, and while she was able to fend off Dern on the mat, Esparza controlled and smashed her there in their fight.
Zhang is easily the equal, if not a better grappler than 'The Cookie Monster', and few female fighters are capable of advancing to a dominant position and crushing their foe like she is.
Nor will Xiaonan really hold a big advantage on the feet against 'Magnum'. Zhang is probably the cleaner striker and is almost certainly the heavier hitter.
Basically, it's hard to see a route to victory for 'Fury' here. Zhang is superior in every area, and barring a freakish strike, it's likely she'll bully Xiaonan until she takes her down, dispatching her there.
The Pick: Zhang via second round submission
#3 UFC BMF title: Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway
UFC 300's third title fight may well be the most highly anticipated, even if the title it is being fought for is little more than a gimmick.
If we're honest, the 'BMF' title doesn't mean a lot. However, it's also hard to dispute the idea that Justin Gaethje is in fact the UFC's 'baddest motherf*cker'.
'The Highlight' never puts on a dull fight and is willing to go toe-to-toe with anyone. Most recently, he violently knocked out Dustin Poirier, but he also holds big wins over the likes of Michael Chandler, Tony Ferguson and Rafael Fiziev.
Gaethje's style is a simple one. He puts insane pressure on his foes, walking them down with booming leg kicks and big power punches. Technically, he's fine, but he also prefers to brawl wildly, putting faith in his crazy chin to pull him through the fire.
That's why former featherweight titleholder Max Holloway is such a fascinating fight for him.
'Blessed' is the self-proclaimed best boxer in the UFC, capable of putting together insane combinations and pouring them on while never leaving any room for his opponent to breathe.
We've only seen him at 155 pounds once before, in a 2019 brawl with Poirier that he eventually lost, but he's big enough to compete at this weight.
So can the Hawaiian really best Gaethje? It's very hard to say.
On one hand, Holloway is the technically superior boxer, he probably has better cardio, and he's got one of the best chins in the history of MMA. If anyone can survive a big shot from Gaethje, he can.
On the other hand, Holloway's losses to Alexander Volkanovski were largely made possible by the Australian's leg kicks slowing 'Blessed' down. Gaethje, of course, has some of the nastiest low kicks in the promotion.
Basically, then, this one is impossible to pick. It's highly unlikely we get a finish here, so it should come down to which fighter can land the bigger shots at volume and whether anyone slows down.
It could go either way, but based purely on the fact that he's more used to fighting at 155 pounds, the pick is Gaethje.
The Pick: Gaethje via decision
#4 UFC lightweight bout: Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan
This lightweight fight should set up the next top contender to Islam Makhachev's crown, assuming the Dagestani defends against Dustin Poirier in the interim.
So who is likely to claim the shot: Charles Oliveira or Arman Tsarukyan?
Of the two, Oliveira is obviously the more proven. 'Do Bronx' is probably the best finisher in UFC history, with a record number of submission wins to his name and a number of knockouts, too.
He's dispatched the likes of Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler, and most recently knocked out Beneil Dariush. The only fighter to beat him recently was Makhachev.
That should give Tsarukyan some comfort. The Armenian pushed Makhachev all the way in their 2019 clash, and fights in a similar way, with powerful takedowns and a stifling ground control game to back up his heavy hands.
The big difference, though, is that we haven't really seen Tsarukyan fight through any adversity thus far into his UFC career. He's never really been in trouble on the ground, or hurt on the feet, even against Makhachev.
'Do Bronx', on the other hand, is proven in that area. Once considered a glass cannon, it's now impossible to question his toughness after the barrages he survived against Gaethje and Chandler.
With that in mind, it's hard not to imagine him dragging Tsarukyan into deep water and drowning him.
Tsarukyan is definitely good, but there's nothing to suggest he's quite as strong on top as Makhachev, and if Oliveira can avoid eating a big shot early on, chances for him should open up.
Whether 'Do Bronx' can finish the Armenian is debatable, but if anyone can pull it off, it's Oliveira.
The Pick: Oliveira via third round submission
#5 UFC middleweight bout: Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage
The final bout on tap for UFC 300's main card is a curious one, as it pits two unranked middleweights against one another.
The reason it's been positioned here, of course, is because Bo Nickal is widely considered one of the best prospects in the UFC.
The decision to open the main card with this bout has angered some fans, but there's realistically nothing wrong with the promotion pushing its prospects.
What might be wrong is the choice of opponent. Sure, Nickal is still hugely unproven, as he's only got two wins in the octagon to his name, one of which came over a late replacement in Val Woodburn.
However, while Brundage is on a two-fight win streak, there's nothing he's done to suggest he can stop the hype train of 'The Allen Assassin'.
Brundage does have solid takedown defense, but he just isn't on the same athletic level as Nickal, and he's never fought someone with that kind of powerful wrestling background.
We still don't know if Nickal's three NCAA Division I national championships will take him to a UFC title, but it's highly unlikely that Brundage will stop his rise.
More likely, Nickal will take his foe down early, dominate him from the top and put him away with relative ease - hopefully setting up a fight with a higher-ranked foe next time out.
The Pick: Nickal via first round TKO