UFC Predictions: UFC 303: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka 2
UFC 303 might've lost Conor McGregor, but it's still a huge event. This could turn out to be one of the better pay-per-views of 2024.
UFC 303: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka 2 now features a light heavyweight title bout in the main event and a number of other key fights up and down the card. With plenty to look forward to, this event is one that MMA fans can't afford to miss.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 303: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka 2.
#1. UFC light heavyweight title: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka
When this event lost its originally planned headliner of Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler, it would've been easy for Dana White and company to declare utter disaster.
Thankfully, though, they've pulled out a true rabbit from their hat and managed to book a pretty epic main event in its stead.
Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka aren't the stars that 'The Notorious' is, but they're two of the best three 205-pound fighters on the planet right now, and they have unfinished business.
Last time these two heavy hitters faced off, 'Poatan' came out on top. It wasn't without a hint of controversy, though.
After a tight first round, 'BJP' cracked Pereira with a one-two and moved in for the kill, only for the Brazilian to counter and drop him with a nasty left hook. From there, 'Poatan' followed with a series of elbows to the side of the head, forcing a stoppage that some argued was premature.
Whether it was or not is a fair question to ask, but it's fair to say that the bout could perhaps have gone either way. Pereira was looking the slightly sharper striker, but Prochazka still clearly carried a lot of danger with him.
Since then, 'Poatan' has proven himself to be the true champion in the light heavyweight division. He dispatched former titleholder Jamahal Hill with ease in April, barely breaking a sweat before knocking him out.
Prochazka, meanwhile, took out Aleksandar Rakic at the same event, but it wasn't without a fight. 'Rocket' beat up his legs with a series of powerful kicks, and only lost when 'BJP' managed to turn the bout into a filthy brawl.
What's worrying for the Czech fighter here is that Pereira's early success in their fight also came via low kicks, something the former champ clearly hadn't looked to deal with in his later fight with Rakic.
With that in mind, it's easy to see 'Poatan' looking to chew the lead leg up again in order to set up that lethal left hook in particular.
Prochazka is probably the better grappler, but when he took Pereira to the ground in the first fight, he wasn't able to have major success there, largely because he lacked the controlling skills of, say, Magomed Ankalaev.
Which way will this one go? Unless Prochazka can turn the fight into an outright shootout - and even that would be risky against someone with the power of 'Poatan' - then it's hard to see him finding too much success.
Ankalaev remains the most likely fighter to give the Brazilian real trouble, and hopefully, the promotion can put that fight together in the near future. For now, though, expect 'Poatan' to extend his credentials with another finish.
The Pick: Pereira via second-round KO
#2. UFC featherweight bout: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes
Considering that this fight was thrown together literally a week or so ago, it's a pretty amazing co-headliner for this event.
It pits two of the most exciting featherweights on the roster against one another, and it almost certainly has title implications, even if the winner likely won't net a shot outright.
Of the two fighters involved, Brian Ortega is obviously the more well-known quantity. 'T-City' exploded onto the scene back in 2014 and after a bad start to his octagon career thanks to a positive drug test, he shot up the rankings.
After reeling off six wins in a row, all by finish, Ortega fought Max Holloway for the featherweight title in 2018, but came up short.
Since then, while he's fought only sporadically, he has shown himself to be remarkably skilled. His win over Chan Sung Jung showed off a much-improved striking game, and his grappling was as venomous as ever in his win over Yair Rodriguez earlier this year.
Diego Lopes is, of course, more of a wild card in the division. The Mexican-based Brazilian came into the UFC last year as a late-notice foe for Movsar Evloev, and was more noted for his resemblance to Blink-182's Tom Delonge than anything else.
However, he gave the still-unbeaten Russian fits on the ground, and has since reeled off three wins, one by submission and two by knockout. The final one, over the explosive Sodiq Yusuff, was a real eye-opener.
With six losses on his record to go along with his 24 wins, it's clear that Lopes can be beaten, but based on what we've seen, he's an absolutely lethal finisher with the ability to take out anyone.
'T-City', though, is a big step up for him. As good as Evloev is, he isn't as offensively dangerous as Ortega, who has only been truly beaten by the cardio monsters Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. And as everyone will recall, he came mightily close to taking out the latter.
More to the point, Ortega is remarkably tough. It's highly unlikely that a grappler of his standard is going to get caught in a submission by Lopes, and while the Brazilian has power, 'T-City' has never had his chin properly cracked.
With all things considered, there's the potential for an upset here, but it feels unlikely. Instead, it's more likely that 'T-City' will outwork his foe for a victory.
The Pick: Ortega via decision
#3. UFC 303: The Main Card
In a late-notice light heavyweight bout, Anthony Smith faces Roman Dolidze. Initially, this would've seen Smith taking on hot prospect Carlos Ulberg, However, with 'Black Jag' sidelined, Dolidze has stepped in instead.
On paper at least, then, this looks like a horrible fight for 'The Caucasian'. Not only is he taking on a hardened veteran in 'Lionheart' on eight days' notice, but he's also stepping up from 185 pounds, too.
Sure, Dolidze has fought at 205 pounds before, but never against a fighter the caliber of Smith, who looked as dangerous as ever in his recent win over Vitor Petrino.
Given that Dolidze has also lost his last two fights, it's just hard to see him finding success here. 'The Caucasian' has never been finished, but 'Lionheart' is capable of doing so. The pick is Smith via submission.
In a bantamweight bout, Mayra Bueno Silva faces Macy Chiasson. This will be SIlva's first fight after her failure to claim the vacant 135-pound title against Raquel Pennington earlier this year.
That fight was a hugely disappointing one for 'Sheetara', but prior to that, she'd put together an impressive four-fight win streak, three via submission (ignoring the overturning of her win over Holly Holm).
Chiasson, on the other hand, returned to 135 pounds earlier this year with a bang, dispatching veteran Pannie Kianzad via rear-naked choke.
The result of this one could well come down to how well Bueno Silva can deal with being at a huge reach disadvantage. Chiasson will enjoy a six-inch advantage over the Brazilian, and so if she can keep things standing, she should find success.
However, she's more of a grappler, and if the bout hits the mat, it's hard not to favor Bueno Silva, who looks to be slightly slicker. This one could go either way, but the pick is Bueno Silva via submission.
Finally, in a welterweight clash, Ian Garry squares off with Michael 'Venom' Page. This one could prove to be an instant classic, or it could end up as a bit of a staring contest, depending on how aggressive the two fighters get.
Of the two, Garry is more proven in the octagon. 'The Future' is a slick striker with a long reach, strong fundamentals and a nasty killer instinct if he gets a foe hurt. He holds wins over Geoff Neal, Neil Magny, and Daniel Rodriguez, among others.
Page, of course, made his name in the Bellator cage. 'Venom' was renowned for crushing massively overmatched foes with his unorthodox, flashy striking, but if anything, his record is underrated. He's 22-2 with wins over Paul Daley and Douglas Lima. His octagon debut, meanwhile, saw him largely pick Kevin Holland apart.
This one will likely come down to how Garry approaches things. If he can stay on the outside, it likely won't make for a fun fight, but 'The Future' should be able to just about outland Page for a win.
If he gets aggressive, though, then it's hard to say. 'Venom' could land a counter, or he could end up overwhelmed by his Irish foe. The smart money, though, suggests Garry knows that making things dull might be the correct way to win. Therefore, the pick is Garry via decision.
#4. UFC 303: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC middleweight bout: Joe Pyfer vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
UFC featherweight bout: Cub Swanson vs. Andre Fili
UFC featherweight bout: Charles Jourdain vs. Jean Silva
UFC bantamweight bout: Payton Talbott vs. Yanis Ghemmouri
UFC strawweight bout: Michelle Waterson vs. Gillian Robertson
UFC heavyweight bout: Andrei Arlovski vs. Martin Buday
UFC flyweight bout: Rei Tsuruya vs. Carlos Hernandez
UFC bantamweight bout: Ricky Simon vs. Vinicius Oliveira