UFC Predictions: UFC 305: Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya
UFC 305: Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya features one of the most talked-about title fights in some time, and a solid if unspectacular undercard.
The likelihood of this event delivering some great action seems pretty high, so it should definitely be one worth watching.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 305: Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya.
#1. UFC middleweight title: Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya
To say that UFC 305's main event is a long-awaited bout would be a huge understatement.
The bad blood has been brewing between Dricus du Plessis and Israel Adesanya for some time, dating back to 'Stillknocks' claiming that he was going to be the UFC's "first real African champion" - essentially pouring scorn on the heritage of Adesanya, as well as Francis Ngannou and Kamaru Usman.
The truth of that statement remains a huge debate, and it's probably not one worth really touching on here. Either way, it stoked the fires of something major between the two men.
The racially-charged feud then came to a head in 2023, when du Plessis knocked out Robert Whittaker to seemingly earn a title shot.
Adesanya, then the middleweight champion, entered the octagon to confront the South African, and a wild staredown, complete with racial slurs, went down.
Fans hoped that their fight would take place later that year, but of course, fate intervened. 'Stillknocks' couldn't make the date that the promotion wanted, so Sean Strickland stepped in and promptly upset 'The Last Stylebender', ruining all of the plans.
Thankfully, du Plessis then put things right by dethroning 'Tarzan' earlier this year, and so finally, we're getting the title fight everyone wanted. So who will come out on top?
On paper at least, the match appears to favor Adesanya. Historically, he's snacked on powerful but less technical strikers, usually sniping them from the outside for either a decision, or if they open up a little too much, a knockout.
'The Last Stylebender' is definitely not impervious, of course. Strickland knocked him down and Alex Pereira knocked him out, but overall, he's very hard to hit and his timing is second-to-none.
We still don't know how good his ground game is, but the truth is that du Plessis, a heavy-handed kickboxer not known for his takedowns, isn't likely to test that.
Instead, 'Stillknocks' is likely to pursue Adesanya and look to pressure him backwards. His success tends to be based around that approach, as he refuses to give his foes time to breathe and then unleashes crushing combinations on them, often from wild angles.
If his foes come to him, while he isn't a clean technical counterpuncher, he does have the Chuck Liddell-like ability to absorb their best shots and then hit back with something nastier. Like Liddell, he also has a ferocious killer instinct.
If both men are at their best, then, it's hard to see du Plessis having too much success. If he comes forward, he's likely to walk into a buzzsaw of counterstrikes. If he sits back, Adesanya can snipe him from the outside.
At the end of the day, is du Plessis better than prime Whittaker or prime Paulo Costa? Probably not, and Adesanya knocked out both.
However, there are question marks over 'The Last Stylebender' and where his head is right now. Sure, he's promised to make du Plessis pay for his earlier comments, but he looked hugely jaded and slow against Strickland.
If he fights similarly here, then du Plessis will undoubtedly hurt him and knock him out, perhaps even damaging his legacy in the process.
Despite this, Adesanya has enjoyed the first extended break of his UFC career. He's now free of the pressure of the title, will be fighting in front of his home fans, and given the rivalry, has more to gain with a win than ever before.
With that in mind, it's hard to see him going wrong, especially in a matchup that favors him stylistically.
The Pick: Adesanya via fourth round TKO
#2. UFC flyweight bout: Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg
This weekend's co-headliner is a flyweight bout that pits New Zealand against Australia, as Kai Kara-France takes on Steve Erceg. It also appears to pit a fighter on his way up against one on his way down. So who will come out on top?
Erceg's rise has been rapid to say the least. 'Astro Boy' burst onto the scene just over a year ago and upset the highly-touted David Dvorak on late notice. Two more wins put him in line for a title shot.
Was the Aussie really ready to face off with Alexandre Pantoja? On paper the answer was no, but Erceg actually pushed 'The Cannibal' harder than many people expected.
His striking looked sharp and he busted the champ up, but ended up losing largely due to Pantoja's superior grappling. There was no shame in the loss, though, and 'Astro Boy' showed he belongs at the top.
Kara-France, on the other hand, has had it harder recently. 'Don't Blink' shot up the rankings a few years ago with a wild style that relied largely on his ability to scramble and strike his foes suddenly from points they didn't necessarily expect.
This took him to wins over the likes of Tyson Nam and Cody Garbrandt, and an upset win over Askar Askarov netted him a shot at the interim flyweight title.
However, the Kiwi fighter then lost badly to Brandon Moreno, eating a brutal body kick that stopped him, and he's since lost to Amir Albazi.
Realistically, Kara-France's recent record just doesn't warrant his No.4 ranking, but his talent levels, when he's at his best, might.
The issue for him here, though, is that Erceg is a bad stylistic match for him.
'Astro Boy' did struggle with Pantoja on the ground, but 'The Cannibal' is a much better grappler than Kara-France from a technical standpoint.
He's more likely to control a foe, as he did with Erceg, whereas Kara-France wildly hunts for submissions and scrambles. That should allow Erceg chances to escape if he is taken down.
More importantly, on the feet, Erceg's patient style and willingness to chain heavy punches and elbows together when openings arise should prove tricky for 'Don't Blink' as well.
Albazi's win over Kara-France was close, but his success on the feet definitely came from his ability to counter his wilder foe, something Erceg is more than capable of.
With everything considered, it's hard to see Kara-France winning here. He'll need to finish Erceg. Though, if Pantoja couldn't, it's hard to imagine him doing it here.
Can 'Astro Boy' find a finish? It feels unlikely, but to see him get a clear-cut dominant win won't be shocking.
The Pick: Erceg via decision
#3. UFC 305: The Main Card
In a lightweight bout, Mateusz Gamrot takes on Dan Hooker. This is a great fight that pits arguably the lightweight division's most underrated fighter against a dangerous veteran.
Both of these men come into this one in good form, too. Gamrot has won his last three fights and is 7-1 in his last eight. Hooker, meanwhile, has won his last two since moving back to 155 pounds.
It's hard not to favor 'Gamer' here, though. A tricky grappler who's also dangerous on the feet, Gamrot's biggest strength is his ability to take the fight where his opponent doesn't want it to go. He's fast, powerful, durable and has great cardio.
Hooker, of course, has dangerous skills everywhere too. 'The Hangman' is a better finisher than Gamrot and can take out a foe suddenly. He's also one of the most durable fighters in UFC history.
With that said, he won't be as physically strong as Gamrot, and that could prove to be his undoing. Unless he hurts the Pole early and can dispatch him, he'll likely be outworked in a competitive fight. The pick is Gamrot via decision.
In a heavyweight clash, strikers Tai Tuivasa and Jairzinho Rozenstruik are set to square off. Both of these men are still ranked in the top fifteen - Tuivasa at No.10 and Rozenstruik at No.12 - but they both need a win here.
Of the two, 'Bam Bam' is the more desperate. After a breakout win over Derrick Lewis in 2022, he's on a four-fight losing streak. A cult hero in Australia, he's likely to get a huge reaction in Perth, but his roster spot could be in trouble with a loss.
Can he win, then? He's definitely a cruder striker than the more technical Rozenstruik. However, 'Big Boy' doesn't have the best chin for a heavyweight, and he's been dispatched by powerful and fast fighters.
When you consider that the usually conservative Alexander Volkov had success wading into Rozenstruik, this might actually be a good stylistic match for Tuivasa.
If 'Bam Bam' can come in confidently and rough 'Bigi Boy' up before he gets into a rhythm, his losing streak might end. The pick is Tuivasa via first-round KO.
Finally, in a welterweight bout, Li Jingliang faces Carlos Prates. Once considered a dark horse at 170 pounds, Li has been injured for a long time following a 2022 loss to Daniel Rodriguez. So, can he bounce back here?
It's hard to say. Prates is far less proven at this level, but 'The Nightmare' is clearly dangerous. Among his 19 career wins, he has 14 knockouts.
At his best, Li was a stifling grappler with a decent striking game, and it's hard not to think that 'The Leech' would've worn Prates down. After so much time on the shelf, though, and at the age of 36, it's hard to trust the Chinese fighter. Who knows if he's even over his spinal injury?
Considering this, all signs point to the Brazilian gaining victory. The pick is Prates via first-round KO.
#4. UFC 305: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC heavyweight bout: Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker
UFC featherweight bout: Joshua Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramos
UFC flyweight bout: Casey O'Neill vs. Luana Santos
UFC featherweight bout: Jack Jenkins vs. Herbert Burns
UFC lightweight bout: Alex Reyes vs. Tom Nolan
UFC welterweight bout: Song Kenan vs. Ricky Glenn
UFC flyweight bout: Stewart Nicoll vs. Jesus Santos Aguilar