UFC Predictions: UFC 307: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr
The UFC visits Salt Lake City, Utah next weekend for the first event of October. Overall, this pay-per-view looks like an excellent event.
UFC 307: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. features two title fights, as well as some other hugely intriguing bouts that will hopefully be exciting.
With any luck, this event should prove to be one of the best of 2024.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 307: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
#1. UFC light-heavyweight title: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
To label UFC 307's headliner a piece of curious matchmaking would be an understatement to say the least.
There's no doubt right now that Alex Pereira is the world's top 205 pounder. Not only has he held the light-heavyweight title since November 2023, he's also defended it twice since, turning back the challenge of the last two titleholders, Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill.
Add in his win over Jan Blachowicz in 2023, and it's hard to question the Brazilian. However, the one area everyone is still a little unsure about when it comes to 'Poatan' is his ground game.
Pereira simply hasn't been tested on the mat, largely because he's fought fighters who were happy to exchange on the feet with him, something that usually leads to their doom.
Magomed Ankalaev, who is currently ranked at No. 2 in the division, would've tested his wrestling for sure. A monstrous Dagestani wrestler, Ankalaev is probably the best takedown artist at 205 pounds.
However, despite Ankalaev not being injured, the UFC has instead given the shot at Pereira to No. 8-ranked Khalil Rountree Jr.
'The War Horse' is riding a five-fight win streak, but hasn't fought since last December, primarily because he was suspended for a positive drug test earlier this year.
Quite why he's been chosen for a title shot, then, is baffling. Thankfully, this fight should be fun for as long as it lasts.
Like Pereira, Rountree is a striker by trade. However, he's far wilder than the Brazilian, favoring huge, sweeping hooks, vicious low kicks, and heavy assaults from the clinch. He's also not averse to landing soccer kicks to the body when an opponent is down, a highly underutilised weapon in the octagon.
'The War Horse' arguably hits as hard as anyone in the promotion right now. His knockout of Anthony Smith, for example, was terrifying, looking like someone had just shut 'Lionheart' down with a remote control.
The big difference between Rountree and Pereira, though, is in technique. 'Poatan' is literally one of the best kickboxers to ever set foot in the octagon, and he's dispatched top kickboxers in that sport as well.
The Brazilian's left hook is basically death to any opponent, he times it perfectly so that his foes don't see it coming, and based on what we saw earlier this year, he can end fights with his kicks too.
Given that Rountree hasn't fought in so long, has been knocked out a few times before, and comes in so wildly, it's hard to give him much more than a puncher's chance in this fight.
Instead, we should probably expect another relatively quick and easy finish for 'Poatan', only adding to his ever-growing legend.
The Pick: Pereira via first round KO
#2. UFC bantamweight title: Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena
This weekend's co-headliner will see the women's bantamweight title on the line, as champion Raquel Pennington defends against former titleholder Julianna Pena.
Firstly, it's worth addressing the elephant in the room. After she destroyed Holly Holm in April, most fans expected Kayla Harrison to be given the first shot at 'Rocky'.
After all, the Olympic gold medallist was the new hot thing in the division, which felt like it'd been floundering since Amanda Nunes' retirement in 2023.
Evidently, though, the UFC had other ideas, even if this fight doesn't make too much sense. After all, for however good Pena is, she hasn't fought since her July 2022 loss to Nunes, and hasn't won since her upset over 'The Lioness' in December 2021.
Regardless of how deserving Pena might be, though, can 'The Venezuelan Vixen' win this fight? Despite her layoff, there's every chance that she can.
With all due respect, it's probably fair to say that Pennington is one of the most unlikely champions in UFC history. 'Rocky' has been around since 2013, and for the most part, she was always seen as a journeywoman fighter.
She did receive a shot at Nunes back in 2018, but fell to a pretty one-sided defeat, and when she then lost to Germaine de Randamie and Holm, her career looked to be coming to an end.
Since that defeat to Holm, though, she hasn't lost, winning six in a row, including her victory over Mayra Bueno Silva to claim the title vacated by Nunes.
Despite her run, though, 'Rocky' is still largely the same fighter she's always been. She's incredibly tough and hard to stop or even hurt, has strong grappling and clinch work, and is willing to exchange.
On the other side of the coin, she's not a natural athlete by any means, isn't that quick, and can be outmuscled or outgrappled by superior athletes.
Pena, for all the faults she has, is definitely a better athlete than Pennington. 'The Venezuelan Vixen' is not a natural striker, but she does have a solid chin and is willing to take a shot to give a shot.
On the ground, though, she's a monster from the top, capable of dropping bombs from the mount and also hunting for submissions if she can get into a dominant spot.
Pena's record is a little patchy, but realistically, that isn't a knock on her talent and more on the fact that due to injuries and becoming a mother, she hasn't fought as often as some of her peers.
This one, then, should come down to how rusty Pena is after a two year layoff. If she comes in looking as good as she did in her first bout with Nunes, she should find a way to get past Pennington.
If she's slower or looks past it, though, 'Rocky' could easily beat her up in the clinch for five rounds for a decision victory.
Overall, though, it's hard to favor Pennington here when she's arguably never beaten an athlete superior to herself. With that in mind, it feels likely that 'The Venezuelan Vixen' will win - only to lose to Harrison in 2025.
The Pick: Pena via third round submission
#3. UFC 307: The Main Card
In a bantamweight fight, the legendary Jose Aldo returns to take on rising prospect Mario Bautista.
Aldo, who initially retired in 2022, came back in May to defeat Jonathan Martinez. While it wasn't quite a vintage showing - he didn't get a finish - he did look pretty damn good.
He's never going to be the same fighter who terrorised the featherweight division, but to be fair, that was well over a decade ago. Even slightly slowed down, he still hits hard, has fantastic technical striking, and is a brilliant grappler too.
Bautista's biggest successes have come via his grappling game, which is probably why he hasn't picked up much fanfare. He's won his last six fights in a row, claiming three submissions, but his best win, over Ricky Simon in January, came largely due to an improved striking game.
This will be a huge step up for Bautista, though, and it's not one he seems ready for right now. Aldo has only been beaten by fighters who have either had the punching power to bully him (Petr Yan) or insane takedowns (Merab Dvalishvili) and Bautista has neither.
He's got enough to make it a competitive fight, but so did Martinez and he still lost. With that considered, the pick is Aldo via decision.
In a women's bantamweight tilt, Kayla Harrison takes on Ketlen Vieira. It's highly likely that the winner of this one will challenge for the 135 pound title next time around, so who will come out on top?
With the greatest respect to Vieira, the answer is most likely to be Harrison. Her octagon debut was a real eye-opener, as she absolutely ran through Holly Holm in a way nobody else had really done before. She had no issues making 135 pounds, and destroyed 'The Preacher's Daughter' with ease.
Vieira is a strong fighter in her own right, sure. 'Fenomeno' is a decent striker and an excellent grappler with the capability to grind opponents down. However, she isn't a natural athlete, doesn't have too much explosiveness, and has struggled against fighters who do have those attributes before.
Basically, this feels like a way to push Harrison even harder leading into her inevitable title shot. The pick is Harrison via first round TKO.
Finally, at middleweight, Kevin Holland takes on Roman Dolidze. Initially, this fight would've seen Holland taking on Chris Curtis, but 'Action Man' was forced out in August.
It's hard to call Dolidze a "late" replacement per say, but whether he'll be fully prepared for this bout is hard to say. On paper, at least, 'The Caucasian' probably has an advantage here.
That's because, for all of his offensive talents, Holland has a major hole in his game. Particularly when he fights at 185 pounds, 'The Trailblazer' tends to struggle against heavy wrestlers who can hold him down. It's how he lost to Marvin Vettori and Derek Brunson, for instance.
Dolidze might've struggled to hold down Anthony Smith in his last fight, but he still kept him on the ground for a round, and 'Lionheart' is a sizeable 205 pounder, not someone who can make 170 pounds like Holland.
Holland does hold a small reach advantage, but if he can't stay off his back - and Dolidze, to be fair, is not a bad striker either - it's hard to see him having much success. The pick, therefore, is Dolidze via decision.
#4. UFC 307: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC welterweight bout: Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley
UFC strawweight bout: Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo
UFC middleweight bout: Cesar Almeida vs. Ihor Potieria
UFC strawweight bout: Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington
UFC light-heavyweight bout: Ovince St. Preux vs. Ryan Spann
UFC welterweight bout: Tim Means vs. Court McGee
UFC lightweight bout: Austin Hubbard vs. Alexander Hernandez