UFC Predictions: UFC 308: Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway
The UFC heads to Abu Dhabi for a major pay-per-view next weekend. The final event of October promises to be a big one.
UFC 308: Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway features a huge headline bout for the featherweight title, but it also has a packed undercard filled with talent.
So with plenty on the line, this promises to be an unmissable show for the fans.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 308: Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway.
#1. UFC featherweight title: Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway
Depending on how you view the UFC's BMF title, this fight could well be seen as a champion vs. champion affair. Even if you don't count the belt currently held by Max Holloway, it's hard not to see this as the best possible featherweight title fight right now.
It would've been easy for the promotion to book Ilia Topuria in an instant rematch with Alexander Volkanovski. After all, 'The Great' had dominated the division for years - beating Holloway three times - and when 'El Matador' dispatched him, it was a huge upset.
However, Volkanovski realistically needs a break right now, and there would've been no point in making Topuria wait around.
So can the German-born, Spanish-based Georgian knock off another legend of the octagon here?
Thus far in his career, Topuria has been perfect. At 15-0, he's never tasted defeat, and he hasn't been beating scrubs. Outside of Volkanovski, 'El Matador' holds wins over Bryce Mitchell and Josh Emmett, both highly-rated 145-pounders.
While his boxing has become his most talked-about attribute, Topuria is also adept at wrestling. His takedowns are remarkably powerful and from the top he throws ground-and-pound like a far bigger man, doing incredible amounts of damage in a short space of time.
It's his punching power that has people excited, though. 'El Matador' destroys opponents with his punches, chambering them from perfect angles to do maximum damage.
While he can often appear to be throwing nothing but haymakers, too, his setups are much smoother than some give him credit for. The way he knocked out Volkanovski, for instance, was technically brilliant.
Holloway, of course, is a master striker in his own right. More of a kickboxer than a straight boxer - despite the claims he made in his bout with Calvin Kattar - 'Blessed' largely hails from the Nick Diaz school of volume striking.
Essentially, he'll chain combinations together from the outside, often digging into the body and landing slapping hooks to the head. At times it'll look like he isn't putting everything into it - and then suddenly, he'll swarm his foe and batter them into submission with non-stop shots.
Of course, the Hawaiian is also highly regarded as a tough brawler. We saw this in his most recent fight with Justin Gaethje, as he called out the power puncher for one final firefight in the fifth round, and knocked him out cold moments later.
Basically, this one should come down to whether Topuria's power can hurt Holloway before 'Blessed' takes over with his volume.
It's a tricky call to make, but the smart money might be on Holloway. What can Topuria come at him with that he hasn't seen before?
On the other hand, 'El Matador' has never faced a kickboxer as varied, dangerous, and downright tough as Holloway. Even if he lands his hardest punch, whether he can put 'Blessed' out is a question mark, and if he can't, Holloway will be terminator-like in his approach.
Sure, 'El Matador' proved everyone wrong by knocking out Volkanovski, but it feels unlikely that lightning will strike twice here. Instead, the reigning BMF champion will probably overwhelm him late on. Whether that will make him a simultaneous double champ, of course, is debatable!
The Pick: Holloway via fourth-round TKO
#2. UFC middleweight bout: Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev
It's safe to say that this one has been a long time coming. A de facto #1 contender's fight at middleweight, the winner of this one will probably take on champ Dricus du Plessis - or Sean Strickland - in 2025. So who takes it, Robert Whittaker or Khamzat Chimaev?
Of the two, it's safe to say that Whittaker is far more proven at 185 pounds. The former middleweight champ lost to du Plessis last year, making the South African one of just two men to best him at the weight.
However, 'The Reaper' has bounced back in style this year, first outpointing Paulo Costa and then dispatching Ikram Aliskerov in ruthless fashion in June.
Aliskerov, of course, was a late replacement for Chimaev. 'Borz' was forced out of that planned bout with an illness, and a lot of fans probably won't believe this fight will actually happen until he steps into the octagon.
Put simply, while the Chechen is a generational talent, he's already pulled out of so many fights in his short career - four - that many fans worry that he'll never quite live up to his billing.
In fact, 'Borz' hasn't fought now in basically a year, since defeating Kamaru Usman in the first fight for both at 185 pounds.
At his best, though, Chimaev is a force of nature. His takedowns are seemingly impossible to stop, and if he gets a foe down and takes their back, it's usually game over. While he's not technically the best striker, he's explosive, packs tons of power and has a solid chin too.
Whittaker, of course, is a far more proven kickboxer. 'The Reaper' has some of the best killer instinct in the game, he also packs plenty of power, and he has the ability to catch his foes from unorthodox angles, too.
What makes this fight worrying for Chimaev is that not only will he be the smaller man, but Whittaker's takedown defense is absolutely phenomenal.
Considering he does not have a wrestling background - hardly surprising given he hails from Australia - his takedown defense stands at a monstrous 82%. The only fighter to reliably ground him, in fact, was Cuban Olympic wrestler Yoel Romero, and even he couldn't really keep 'The Reaper' down.
If Chimaev wants to win this one, he's going to need to buck that trend. It's unlikely that he'll be able to smother Whittaker, so his best bet might be to use a takedown to trigger a scramble, take the Aussie's back from there, and strangle him.
Whether he can do it, though, is another thing entirely. If Whittaker can block the first takedown, then some doubt might come into the mind of 'Borz', and that could lead to him exchanging instead.
Given he was rocked by Gilbert Burns, the idea of Chimaev doing well on the feet with Whittaker might be a pipe dream of sorts. Sure, anyone can get cracked, but it isn't like 'The Reaper' has a poor chin. In fact, he's been capable of absorbing inhuman punishment at times.
Overall, then, this feels like a bad match for Chimaev on paper. It isn't impossible for him, purely because of his huge talent, particularly in taking the back of his opponent.
However, it's hard to shake the idea that he might be better off at 170 pounds, and this could be the fight that proves it. It'd be better for the UFC if Chimaev were to win, but it feels like a hugely difficult task for him.
The Pick: Whittaker via second round KO
#3. UFC 308: The Main Card
In a featherweight bout, the unbeaten Lerone Murphy puts his record on the line against brawler Dan Ige.
The last time we saw Murphy, he crashed his way into the top ten at 145 pounds by outpointing Edson Barboza in a pretty clean sweep. A highly surgical striker, 'The Iceman' sits behind his jab and chains combinations together at a strong pace. Overall, he's tricky to stop.
Ige's forte is all about making a fight a dirty brawl, though. '50K' is happy to wade in and throw bombs against anyone, and he's got the punching power to back it up. The Hawaiian doesn't have the best record, but he's not an easy out for anyone.
Unfortunately for him, he's probably outgunned here. Murphy is enough of a veteran not to be drawn into a shootout with him, and Ige will also be giving up height and reach. 'The Iceman' might need to be more careful than usual, but the pick is Murphy via decision.
In a light-heavyweight clash that could decide the next title challenger, Magomed Ankalaev faces Aleksandar Rakic.
Realistically, Ankalaev should probably have taken the shot at Alex Pereira that Khalil Rountree got a few weeks back. The Dagestani is unbeaten in his last 12 fights dating back to 2018 and has beaten the likes of Anthony Smith, Johnny Walker, and Thiago Santos.
A fantastic wrestler, Ankalaev is most comfortable punishing his foes from the top position, but he's also a capable striker, with ten of his 18 wins coming via KO.
He might be better off looking to take this fight down, though. Rakic is one of the most dangerous strikers in the division, capable of hurting his foes both from range and inside the clinch.
'The Rocket' was doing remarkably well against Jiri Prochazka, even, before 'BJP' turned that fight into a brawl to take him out. At his best, the Austrian is a fantastic fighter who's capable of winning this fight. Can he stop Ankalaev's takedown, though? That's another thing entirely.
Rakic has never faced a wrestler this good, and with a title shot probably on the line, the Dagestani might choose a safer approach to victory. It might not bring fireworks, but the pick is Ankalaev via decision.
Finally, Shara Magomedov faces Armen Petrosyan in a middleweight tilt. This one should be a striking bout first and foremost, and it's quite hard to pick.
While Petrosyan's octagon career hasn't been all that successful - he's 3-2 - both of his losses came to extraordinary grapplers. On the feet, meanwhile, 'Superman' has looked good, most notably dealing with Christian Duncan and Gregory Rodrigues.
There's more hype on 'Shara Bullet', of course, one of the wildest newcomers to hit the UFC in some time. Indeed, the Dagestani is 3-0 in the octagon and 14-0 altogether.
Magomedov hits very hard and is an aggressive, flashy striker, but there's an argument that Petrosyan will be the best fighter he's ever faced, meaning he could be seriously tested. If 'Shara Bullet' looks to exchange with his foe wildly, he might find himself outgunned by a more technical striker.
It's hard to pick against 'Shara Bullet' purely because of his wild reputation, but this one could go either way. In the end, though, it's hard to go against the momentum. The pick is Magomedov via decision.
#4. UFC 308: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC welterweight bout: Geoff Neal vs. Rafael Dos Anjos
UFC lightweight bout: Mateusz Rebecki vs. Myktybek Orolbai
UFC bantamweight bout: Said Nurmagomedov vs. Daniel Santos
UFC middleweight bout: Abus Magomedov vs. Brunno Ferreira
UFC bantamweight bout: Farid Basharat vs. Victor Hugo
UFC middleweight bout: Ismail Naurdiev vs. Bruno Silva
UFC welterweight bout: Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
UFC light-heavyweight bout: Ibo Aslan vs. Raffael Cerquiera
UFC heavyweight bout: Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Chris Barnett