UFC Predictions: UFC 309: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
The UFC hits New York's famous Madison Square Garden next weekend. If everything goes well, this could be one of the best events of the year.
UFC 309: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic should not only give us clarity in the heavyweight division, but also tell us a lot about where a number of other fighters stand.
With plenty on the line, then, this is an event not to miss.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 309: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic.
#1. UFC heavyweight title: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
To say that this fight has been a long time coming would be an understatement. The situation dates back to March 2023, when Jon Jones first claimed the heavyweight title to become one of a handful of fighters to win UFC titles in two different weight classes.
Of course, 'Bones' was not the lineal champion, as Francis Ngannou had departed for the PFL a month or so prior. Still, by beating Ciryl Gane - the former interim champ and a fighter who'd taken Ngannou five rounds - in two minutes, it was hard not to take him seriously as a heavyweight.
Unfortunately, since then, it'd be fair to label Jones' title reign as a disaster.
The decision to have him face former titleholder Stipe Miocic in his first defense was made very early on, and even then, it felt like an odd choice. After all, Miocic had not fought since he lost his title to Ngannou in April 2021.
However, his status as the UFC's most accomplished heavyweight meant that the promotion could justify the bout, particularly with no other clear-cut top contender on the horizon.
The fight was positioned as the headliner for last year's trip to Madison Square Garden, UFC 295, almost exactly a year ago. However, Jones tore his pectoral muscle in training, forcing him to withdraw.
Rather than find Miocic a new opponent, he was also removed from the event, with the idea being to leave the Jones bout intact.
What this also meant, though, was that an interim champ in the form of Tom Aspinall was crowned after a win over Sergei Pavlovich, and since then, the clamor for Aspinall, not Miocic to fight Jones has been huge.
Despite that, the UFC has pushed ahead with this fight, meaning plenty of rumors - most of which suggest Jones intends to retire if he wins - are abound.
Whether 'Bones' will ever fight Aspinall is a big question, but for now, it's all about whether he can beat Miocic.
On the face of things, he really ought to be able to.
Firstly, as noted, Miocic has not fought in well over three years now, and has not won since the summer of 2020, which feels like a lifetime ago.
Secondly, the former titleholder is now 42 years old, meaning that by any metric, he's likely well out of his fighting prime.
Jones is arguably out of his prime years in his own right, but he's still five years younger than Miocic, and appears to be the kind of physical marvel who isn't going to lose too much of his explosiveness.
Basically, it's just hard to imagine Miocic coming into this fight after such a long layoff and performing anywhere near the best of his abilities, if those abilities even exist at this point.
In his prime, Miocic would've been a genuinely dangerous fight for 'Bones'. He possessed excellent boxing with heavy power, a strong wrestling background, and would've been the bigger man in the octagon, despite giving up some reach.
Now, though, after taking a career's worth of damage from the likes of Ngannou, Daniel Cormier, Alistair Overeem and Junior dos Santos, it hardly seems worth talking up Miocic's chances.
He'll always have a puncher's chance in any fight and even a loss here wouldn't dent his reputation as an all-time great. However, it's simply impossible to favor him here and indeed, it's hard to justify putting this fight together while leaving Aspinall waiting.
Therefore, expect another finish from Jones, and where the heavyweight division goes from there, we shall see.
The Pick: Jones via second-round TKO
#2. UFC lightweight bout: Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira
To say that few fans would've seen this rematch coming would be an understatement. That's because, ever since late 2022, fans have been looking forward to seeing Michael Chandler lock horns with Conor McGregor.
Unfortunately, that fight has still never happened, having been canceled most recently in June. The truth is that nobody - maybe even Dana White himself - really knows what's going on with 'The Notorious' right now.
Needing to fight, therefore, Chandler has accepted this fight against former titleholder Charles Oliveira, the man who defeated him in 2021.
There's no way this is as big a fight as one with McGregor would've been, of course. However, it's still a big chance for 'Iron Mike' to take some revenge, and given 'Do Bronx' is still ranked at No. 2, a win could cement a lightweight title shot.
Oliveira, for his part, may well have more to lose. If Chandler were to fall here, he'd be out of the title picture, but his charisma and fighting style would still make him not only a headliner, but a viable foe for McGregor.
'Do Bronx', on the other hand, would've lost three of his last four fights. At the age of 35, his future might be in question.
That sounds ridiculous, of course, given his last fight saw him push top contender Arman Tsarukyan to the limit. However, he has taken a lot of damage over the years, something that's been common even in his big wins.
Take his first fight with Chandler, for instance. The Brazilian was dropped badly in the first round, and how he survived was anyone's guess. He did, though, and ended up turning the tables, knocking 'Iron Mike' out in the second round.
What makes this such a great fight is the fact that while neither man could outright be called a glass cannon, they're both suceptible to eating big shots or coming into harm's way.
That's because they're both hugely offense-centered fighters who rarely take a backwards step. Chandler is perhaps the more explosive of the two, but Oliveira has shown time after time now that he packs a huge punch in his own right.
On the ground, meanwhile, while Chandler is the better wrestler, 'Do Bronx' is a uniquely lethal grappler who can snatch a finish literally from anywhere - particularly if he gets his foe hurt.
Overall, then, this remains a remarkably difficult fight to pick, purely because both men are so capable of taking out the other in a quick rush. The only reliable prediction is that it won't go the distance.
With that said, Chandler's layoff has been very long now - over two years in fact - and given he'll turn 39 years old in April, that may bode poorly for him.
The pick, therefore, is 'Do Bronx', likely with another flashy finish.
The Pick: Oliveira via second-round submission
#3. UFC 309: The Main Card
In a flyweight bout, Viviane Araujo faces Karine Silva. Both of these women are currently in the top 15, with Araujo at No. 9 and Silva at No. 11.
Despite this, it's Silva who has more hype around her. 'Killer' is unbeaten in the octagon at 4-0 and has submitted three of her foes. A grappler by trade, she's both slick and pretty brutal, too, snatching onto submission holds suddenly.
Araujo has been around for longer, dating back to 2019, and while her record is solid and she's picked up some good wins, she has lost three of her last four fights.
More importantly, while she's tough, 'Vivi' just isn't as good an athlete as Silva and doesn't possess the same kind of finishing threat as her fellow Brazilian. Araujo has never been submitted before, but that might not stop 'Killer'. The pick is Silva via submission.
In a welterweight tilt, hot prospect Bo Nickal faces off with veteran Paul Craig. This is easily the biggest test of Nickal's young career. Not only has Craig got far more experience, but he's also an absolutely deadly grappler, particularly from the bottom, and he's difficult to put away.
That makes him uniquely dangerous for Nickal, who is likely to look to use his wrestling to ground the Scotsman, particularly given 'Bearjew' will have a three-inch height advantage.
Basically, this should come down to how well Nickal is progressing. The version we saw beat Cody Brundage in April will likely struggle badly with Craig and probably lose.
Nickal is a fantastic, world-class athlete, though, and that means he's likely to have improved quickly over the past few months. Craig, meanwhile, might be slightly past his prime now, and he has lost four of his last five.
Overall, Nickal will need to be very careful here, particularly on the ground, but if he can avoid any silly mistakes, he should have enough to earn a win. The pick is Nickal via decision.
Finally, Mauricio Ruffy takes on James Llontop in a lightweight bout. A remarkably dangerous striker with all 10 of his wins coming via KO or TKO, it's easy to see why Dana White and company would want to showcase Ruffy here.
Thankfully for them, he's been given a fight he ought to win, too. Llontop has not only taken this fight on late notice, but he's already lost twice in the octagon this year and hasn't really shown he belongs at the very top level.
The native of Peru has yet to be knocked out, but against someone as explosive as Ruffy, that may well change. The pick is Ruffy via KO.
#4. UFC 309: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC middleweight bout: Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders
UFC heavyweight bout: Marcin Tybura vs. Jhonata Diniz
UFC bantamweight bout: Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee
UFC lightweight bout: Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson
UFC welterweight bout: Mickey Gall vs. Ramiz Brahimaj
UFC welterweight bout: Bassil Hafez vs. Oban Elliot
UFC flyweight bout: Veronica Hardy vs. Eduarda Moura