UFC Predictions: UFC 314: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes
The UFC visits Miami, Florida next weekend. The fans there will be treated to what looks like one of the strongest pay-per-views in some time.
UFC 314: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes will see a new featherweight champion crowned, and will also feature a number of other thrilling bouts.
If these fights deliver the goods, then we could be in for one of 2025's most defining events.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 314: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes.
#1. UFC featherweight title: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes
To call UFC 314's headliner huge would be an understatement. It's also a masterful piece of booking from Dana White and company, and is also a testament to the admirable nature of Ilia Topuria too.
'El Matador' famously knocked Alexander Volkanovski out last year to claim the featherweight title and went onto defend it against Max Holloway, stopping 'Blessed' in an incredible showing.
However, Topuria then made the call to move to 155 pounds, citing the cut to 145 pounds as being too sapping for his body to cope with.
Other fighters probably would've clung onto their title and attempted to become a double champ. However, 'El Matador' was happy to relinquish his featherweight crown, ensuring no logjam could happen. It's a lesson that plenty of other fighters could learn from and warrants a ton of respect.
This fight, then, will pit Volkanovski against Diego Lopes to decide the new titleholder at 145 pounds. So will the old lion regain his crown, or will Lopes launch his own dynasty?
There are no questions around Volkanovski's skills. 'Alexander the Great' is a masterful striker in every possible way. His grasp of distance, ability to work out an opponent's weakness and pick at it, and knowledge of exactly when to turn the heat up is almost unmatched in recent UFC history.
However, the Australian is also 36 years old at this point, and looked his age in his loss to Topuria.
Quite how much of that knockout loss was caused by his previous KO defeat to Islam Makhachev remains a fair question. After all, other great fighters suffered one devastating KO that then ruined their durability for good.
Lopes will absolutely be hoping that's the case. The Mexico-based Brazilian has surged up the ranks since his octagon debut in 2023, and has more than earned this shot.
After a razor-close loss to Movsar Evloev in his late-notice debut, he's beaten five straight opponents. He's shown off slick ground skills and booming, dangerous strikes. He's also beaten progressively more dangerous foes, and largely beat up former title challenger Brian Ortega in all areas in his last bout.
In terms of this fight, Lopes is far wilder than 'Alexander the Great', but he's also substantially taller than the Australian and will enjoy a reach advantage.
That wasn't a problem for prime Volkanovski against Holloway, for instance, but whether that fighter even exists at this stage is hard to say.
We can probably write off the ground in this fight, purely because even if he's slower and older, Volkanovski still has fantastic takedown defense and has only been taken down on a handful of occasions in his octagon career.
Basically, then, it will probably come down to how much 'Alexander the Great' still has in the tank. Given he's been out of action for so long, is older and slower now, and has taken two bad KO's in his last two fights, this could be the perfect time for a young lion like Lopes to face him.
Whether Lopes can go onto build a dynasty like Volkanovski did is debatable, but overall, the Brazilian feels like the hotter fighter here. Expect a new era to begin at 145 pounds in Miami, then.
The Pick: Lopes via second-round KO
#2. UFC lightweight bout: Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett
UFC 314's co-headliner is a curious fight for a number of reasons. It's a huge step up for Paddy Pimblett, albeit one that 'The Baddy' has probably earned at this point. Win, and the Liverpudlian will be launched into title contention, something he's always aimed at since the start of his octagon run.
For Michael Chandler, though, it's less obvious as to why he's been willing to take this fight. 'Iron Mike' was, of course, scheduled to fight Conor McGregor for the longest time, and it feels like his willingness to fight someone lower on the ladder in Pimblett might be a final acceptance that 'The Notorious' isn't coming back.
Perhaps the reason Chandler has taken this fight is that more than anything right now, he needs a win. 'Iron Mike' hasn't tasted victory since knocking out Tony Ferguson in 2022, and has lost his last two, albeit in thrilling fashion.
A win over Pimblett, then, would re-establish him as a top 155-pounder and ensure that he remains at the top of the division. So can he do it?
On paper at least, this looks like a good fight for Chandler. 'Iron Mike' has one of the most simple styles of fighting in the promotion. A fantastic wrestler, he tends to use this in reverse, looking instead to dispatch his foes with lethal striking.
On the feet, the former Bellator champ is fast, explosive and packs tons of power into his punches and kicks. He does leave himself open at times, but has shown incredible durability for the most part, and if a fight does hit the ground, he's more than capable of grappling with the best.
Pimblett, on the other hand, is a willing striker if a little wild and crude. He doesn't possess the power of Chandler, though, and clearly does his best work on the ground. If he can get an opponent's back, 'The Baddy' is lethal, as he showed in his excellent win over Jordan Leavitt in 2022.
The worrying thing for Pimblett here has to be his fight with Jared Gordon. Sure, more than two years have passed since that bout, but 'The Baddy' could not get 'Flash' down and ate a lot of big shots. He won, but it was controversial, and Chandler is so much better than Gordon that a comparison wouldn't be fair.
Pimblett has likely improved since then, he has shown toughness on plenty of occasions before, and is always confident in his skills. However, if he fights in a similar way and gets cracked by 'Iron Mike', he's going to get hurt.
Essentially, for as good as Pimblett might be, this just doesn't feel like a stylistically good bout for 'The Baddy'. Assuming Chandler hasn't fossilised overnight, he should be able to avoid the takedowns of the Liverpudlian and leave him in big trouble standing.
Pimblett may well be able to survive Chandler's barrages, especially if he can stay at distance for the most part, but it's hard to see him finding too much success. 'Iron Mike' packs too much power, has too much experience, and is a stylistically bad match for him.
The Pick: Chandler via decision
#3. UFC 314: The Main Card
In a featherweight bout with some serious bad blood, Jean Silva takes on Bryce Mitchell. This fight was essentially set up when Silva called out Mitchell after his last win, and since then, the two men have engaged in a war of words.
All of his odd trash talk and opinions aside, Mitchell is a pretty dangerous grappler at his best. 'Thug Nasty' is one of just three fighters to win via twister in UFC history, and also outgrappled fighters like Edson Barboza and Dan Ige.
Silva, meanwhile, has been a destroyer since his octagon debut in 2024. 'Lord' has scored four straight TKO wins, seems to carry insane power in his hands, and has the vibes of a potential title contender around him.
We haven't seen Silva on the ground yet, but the issue for Mitchell here is going to be getting him there. 'Thug Nasty' found things hard against both Josh Emmett and Ilia Topuria, two heavy hitters who were able to fend him off, and really, there's no evidence that he's improved since those losses.
Overall, this feels like a way to get 'Lord' a big-name win, and so the pick is Silva via TKO.
In another major featherweight clash, former Bellator champ Patricio Pitbull makes his octagon debut to take on Yair Rodriguez. As far as debuts go, this is probably the biggest one since Michael Chandler.
Pitbull holds multiple records in Bellator, has beaten plenty of top fighters, including Chandler and AJ McKee, and he's a remarkably explosive striker with incredible power.
The issue for the Brazilian could be his age. He's been around for a long time now, debuting in MMA in 2004, and he's now 37 years old. More to the point, he hasn't looked at his best in recent years.
Rodriguez, meanwhile, is a perrenial title contender even if he's got a reputation as somewhat of a flake at times. 'El Pantera' is one of the most reckless fighters on the roster, throwing everything he's got at his foes both standing and on the ground, and he's an absolutely lethal finisher in all areas.
The problem Rodriguez tends to have is the fact that his reckless style does leave him open, and he's never been the most durable fighter, even if only Alexander Volkanovski has really taken him out.
Therefore, while 'El Pantera' is in his prime and should probably be favored to win here, there's the chance that he leaves himself open and gets badly cracked en route to a TKO.
That would've been the prediction were this fight taking place two or three years ago, but at this point, it does feel a little late for Pitbull. Therefore, the pick is Rodriguez via decision.
Finally, at light heavyweight, Nikita Krylov takes on Dominick Reyes. This is Reyes' big chance to climb back into the rankings. After going on a major slide with four straight losses between 2020 and 2022, 'The Devastator' has won his last two and looks almost back to his best.
On paper at least, this fight might suit him, too. Krylov is a very dangerous fighter on a three-fight win streak, but Reyes' problems have largely come against concussive hitters. 'The Miner' does have 12 knockout wins to his name, but he's never really been known for his one-shot power and is more of a grappler.
More to the point, Krylov hasn't fought since March 2023, even if he is riding a three-fight win streak. Overall, then, this might be one of the trickier fights to pick on the card, but if Reyes can keep things standing and play it quite carefully, this could be a good bout for him. The pick is Reyes via decision.
#4. UFC 314: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC featherweight bout: Dan Ige vs. Sean Woodson
UFC strawweight bout: Yan Xiaonan vs. Virna Jandiroba
UFC lightweight bout: Jim Miller vs. Chase Hooper
UFC featherweight bout: Darren Elkins vs. Julian Erosa
UFC middleweight bout: Sedriques Dumas vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
UFC flyweight bout: Sumudaerji vs. Mitch Raposo
UFC middleweight bout: Tresean Gore vs. Marco Tulio
UFC bantamweight bout: Nora Cornolle vs. Hailey Cowan