UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 2

The UFC hits Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena this weekend for a special Fight Night show to celebrate Mexican Independence Day.

With a title fight in the headliner, UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 2 promises to be a highly-anticipated show, even if the rest of the card is not as strong.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 2.

#1. UFC flyweight title: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko

Can Alexa Grasso hold onto her flyweight crown this weekend? [Image Credit: @AlexaGrasso on Twitter]

We’ve seen plenty of major upsets in the UFC this year, including this past weekend as Sean Strickland defeated Israel Adesanya.

However, it’s arguable that the upset that Alexa Grasso produced back in March should stand head and shoulders above the rest.

Handed a flyweight title shot on the back of a solid four-fight win streak, the Mexican was basically seen as the latest challenger-of-the-month to Valentina Shevchenko.

‘The Bullet’ had never lost since moving to 125lbs in 2018 and had reeled off nine straight wins, including seven successful title defenses.

With no obvious weaknesses, it seemed like Shevchenko would have no issues in dispatching Grasso. Sure, the Mexican was well-known for her remarkably clean boxing game, but she didn’t seem as dynamic as the champion and didn’t seem as well-rounded, either.

Incredibly, though, Grasso pulled off the impossible. So can she do it again this weekend?

It’s probably worth saying that the Mexican didn’t exactly dominate ‘The Bullet’ in that first fight. Despite having some early success with her leg kicks and combinations, Grasso was largely seen as being behind on the scorecards as the bout ticked into the fourth round.

However, when Shevchenko mistimed a spin kick, Grasso took the opportunity to hop onto her back, sunk a neck crank variant in, and the tap came shortly after.

Basically, this fight should come down to two things: whether that first fight was essentially a fluke, and even if it was, whether ‘The Bullet’ has it in her to regain her title.

After all, Shevchenko is now 35 years old and had held the crown for the best part of five years. It’s a long time for any fighter to be on top of the mountain, and as we’ve seen before with the likes of Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Kamaru Usman, one bad loss – no matter how fluke-like – can lead to a direct slide.

Grasso, on the other hand, will clearly have more momentum behind her now than ever before, and at the age of 30, is probably just hitting her physical prime. She may still lack the dynamism of Shevchenko, but she’s proven she can hang in there with her and knows that ‘The Bullet’ is beatable.

More importantly, it doesn’t seem that the fame she’s gained since becoming champion has gone to her head at all, meaning it’s unlikely she’ll come into this fight overconfident.

Overall, then, this one could almost definitely go either way, but the x-factors mostly point towards Grasso retaining her crown in very tight fashion, ushering in a new era in the process.

The Pick: Grasso via decision

#2. UFC welterweight bout: Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena

Can Jack Della Maddalena retain his unbeaten status in the octagon this weekend? [Image Credit: @jackdellamaddalena on Instagram]

Strangely enough, for a Fight Night co-headliner, this welterweight bout feels like it’s been building for some time now, at least for a handful of months.

Initially, Jack Della Maddalena was supposed to fight Sean Brady at UFC 290 in July, only for the fight to fall apart when Brady picked up an injury.

Kevin Holland offered to step in, with one major issue preventing him from doing so. ‘The Trailblazer’ was already scheduled to fight Michael Chiesa three weeks later.

In the end, Holland’s request was denied, but with Maddalena eventually beating newcomer Bassil Hafez and Holland overcoming Chiesa, the matchmakers decided to put the fight together for real. So who will take it?

It’s safe to say that if you go by their most recent fights, Holland should be favored. He shellacked Chiesa, hurting him with strikes and preventing his takedowns before submitting him in the first round.

Maddalena, on the other hand, had a torrid time with Hafez, and only escaped with a narrow victory. It is worth noting, though, that the Australian essentially performed two major weight cuts in as many weeks, which likely hampered his performance.

Overall, then, there’s a reason why Maddalena is seen as a top prospect in the 170lbs division. He has remarkably fast hands, hits like a truck, and has a strong, if developing ground game.

In terms of his weaknesses, we don’t know all that much about his defensive grappling, and he does leave himself open to being hit – something that Holland is bound to look to take advantage of.

‘The Trailblazer’ isn’t the most technical striker in his own right, but he’ll enjoy an eight-inch reach advantage here and is more than adept at keeping an opponent on the end of his strikes.

When you add in his dangerous grappling, then, to win this one Maddalena is going to have to get inside Holland’s reach – without leaving his neck open should he go for a takedown.

Given Holland’s dangerous skills, this is going to be a tricky out for Maddalena. ‘The Trailblazer’ has never been knocked out, and boasts a solid chin, meaning it’s unlikely the Aussie will get him in a rush. To win, he’ll have to outbox him.

Can Maddalena do that? It’s possible. He does have smooth hands, hits hard, and is deceptively quick. However, on paper, Holland’s physical advantages make this a horrible fight for the prospect, and so it seems more likely that Maddalena will suffer his first defeat in the octagon.

The Pick: Holland via third-round submission

#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

Hot prospect Raul Rosas Jr is in action this weekend [Image Credit: @raulrosasjr on Instagram]

In a bantamweight bout, young prospect Raul Rosas Jr faces Terrence Mitchell. The hype train on Rosas was definitely slowed down by his last fight, a loss to Christian Rodriguez, but he’s still very much a blue-chip prospect with slick grappling and an improving striking game.

Mitchell, unsurprisingly, has a lot more experience than his teenage foe. However, he didn’t look up to much in his own UFC debut, a TKO loss in July, and under the surface, his 14-3 record isn’t all that great. Given the promotion are likely to want to protect Rosas, then the pick is ‘El Nino Problema’ via submission.

In a lightweight tilt, Daniel Zellhuber takes on Christos Giagos. Despite not being the best athlete, Giagos has done well for himself in his second stint in the octagon, winning five of his nine bouts. Unsurprisingly, he’s lost to the higher-level foes he’s fought, but he’s still a tricky grappler who, judging by his win over Rick Glenn, can also crack.

Zellhuber is 1-1 in the octagon, but he looked surprisingly good in his most recent fight with Lando Vannata, particularly on the feet.

‘Golden Boy’ looks like a solid prospect, albeit one who is still clearly developing. If he can avoid the ground game, though, this is a winnable fight for him. The pick, then, is Zellhuber via decision.

Finally, Fernando Padilla takes on Kyle Nelson in a featherweight bout. Despite a spotty record, Padilla looked excellent in his octagon debut, dispatching the tough Julian Erosa in April via first-round TKO. It’s tricky to get a full handle on his skills, but he does look like a dangerous striker.

Nelson, meanwhile, outpointed the unheralded Blake Bilder in July to pick up his first win since 2019 and probably saved his octagon career in the process. The problem is that he just hasn’t shown all that much to suggest he belongs in the promotion, going 2-4-1 since his 2018 debut.

Padilla is very much an unknown quantity, but it feels safe to pick on potential here. The pick is Padilla via TKO.

#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC strawweight bout: Lupita Godinez vs. Elise Reed

UFC middleweight bout: Roman Kopylov vs. Josh Fremd

UFC flyweight bout: Edgar Chairez vs. Daniel Lacerda

UFC flyweight bout: Tracy Cortez vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius

UFC strawweight bout: Josefine Lindgren Knutsson vs. Marnic Mann

UFC lightweight bout: Alex Reyes vs. Charlie Campbell