UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Viviane Araujo
After not having an event last week, the UFC returns this weekend for its latest Fight Night event from the Las Vegas APEX.
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Viviane Araujo is short on name value and star power but acts as an appetizer for the blockbuster pay-per-view event later in the month.
Alexa Grasso vs. Viviane Araujo promoted to Oct. 15 main event mmafighting.com/2022/9/7/23341… https://t.co/OKp4iCVQJs
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Viviane Araujo.
#1. UFC flyweight division: Alexa Grasso vs. Viviane Araujo
Given the nature of the UFC women’s flyweight division right now, any bout between two highly-ranked fighters who haven’t fought current champion Valentina Shevchenko yet is a big deal of sorts. This is one of those fights.
Currently, Alexa Grasso is ranked at No.5 in the division, while Viviane Araujo is in the No.6 spot. Therefore, given that Shevchenko has already dispatched No.1-ranked Katlyn Chookagian, No.2-ranked Taila Santos, No.3-ranked Lauren Murphy and No.4-ranked Jessica Andrade, to see the winner of this one rewarded with a shot at the gold wouldn’t be a surprise.
So who will take this one? It’s fair to say that of the two, Grasso is the better known fighter. The Mexican has been part of the UFC’s roster since late 2016. However, after struggling for traction as a strawweight, she’s really hit her stride at 125 lbs by winning three in a row.
Grasso was initially known for her crisp boxing game, with her grappling seen as somewhat of an Achilles heel. However, since moving to flyweight, her wrestling and submission games seem to have improved, perhaps because she’s no longer giving up any size to her foes.
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Araujo, on the other hand, is a really excellent grappler who has won five of her seven trips to the octagon after debuting as a bantamweight in the summer of 2019.
For the most part, the Brazilian prefers top position and has been able to take most of her opponents down, including her most recent one, Andrea Lee. In that fight, ’KGB' simply couldn't stop Araujo's trips from the clinch and found herself grounded in every round.
It's worth noting that aside from her debut against the overmatched Talita Bernardo, she’s been outstruck by almost all of her opponents in terms of volume, even the ones she was able to win by holding down.
This fight, therefore, should come down to whether Grasso can keep things vertical.
Given that Araujo hasn’t proven herself to be a finisher, particularly on the ground, this one should be Grasso’s to lose. If she can manage to escape to her feet without taking damage on the ground, she should be able to box her way to victory.
The Pick: Grasso via unanimous decision
#2. UFC bantamweight division: Cub Swanson vs. Jonathan Martinez
This is an odd fight of sorts, as it pits a tenured, near-legendary veteran in Cub Swanson against a fighter in Jonathan Martinez who, while he’s climbing the ladder, isn’t what you’d call a hot prospect with much hype behind him.
What makes this bout interesting is the fact that it’s the first time that Swanson will ever compete in the octagon at 135 lbs. How he’ll make the weight given that he was shredded at 145 lbs is anyone’s guess, but if he can do it and if he can beat Martinez, then he’ll be a strong addition to an already loaded division.
What is worrying for Swanson is that while he’s coming off an excellent win over Darren Elkins, his once-legendary durability appeared to be fading in the fights he had before that. From 2017 to 2019 he lost four bouts in a row and was stopped by Giga Chikadze in 2021.
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@CubSwanson finishes it in the first round! 💥
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His best successes at featherweight came when he was able to chain together his wild combinations at a rapid pace.
Will that be the case in this fight, though, against the smaller Martinez? It’s hard to say.
‘Dragon’ has been with the UFC since late 2018, and like Swanson, he’s also fought at 145 lbs before. In fact, it’s arguable that his best wins, over Thomas Almeida and Alejandro Perez, came at that weight.
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Overall, Martinez is a solid fighter in all areas. He carries knockout power, can scramble well, and doesn’t tend to run out of gas. However, in his losses to Andre Ewell and Andre Soukhamthath, he found himself outworked; something that could definitely happen against Swanson.
Essentially, this one should come down to how ‘Killer Cub’ responds to the drop to 135 lbs. Martinez isn’t the quickest bantamweight so he shouldn’t suffer too much there, but if the weight cut takes too much out of him, it’s definitely possible that he’ll be vulnerable to gassing out or being less durable than usual.
Swanson is the far more proven fighter and so he should be the favorite to win here, probably by knockout, but equally, it wouldn’t be a shocker to see him fall.
The Pick: Swanson via second round KO
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
As of the time of writing, just two further bouts have been confirmed for this weekend’s main card. In a key flyweight bout, Brandon Royval takes on Askar Askarov in what could be a top contender’s clash.
Royval is coming off two impressive wins, and while he does hold a loss to Brandon Moreno, he did beat the dangerous Kai Kara-France when they squared off in 2020. Askarov, meanwhile, only holds one loss, and that came to Kara-France earlier this year.
Wooooooow 😱
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Does that mean MMA math should come into play, making Royval the favorite? Well, no. Askarov is probably the most dangerous takedown artist in the division, and he’s also tremendous at keeping his opponents down if he can get them there.
Royval is a great scrambler, but he has shown tendencies to fight in his opponent’s wheelhouse before and that might cost him here. If there’s a finish, ‘Raw Dawg’ will probably pull it off, but the pick is Askarov via decision.
In a middleweight bout, Dusko Todorovic faces Jordan Wright. Given the UFC records of these two, this could well prove to be a loser-leaves-town bout. Todorovic was knocked out by Chidi Njokuani in his last fight and has only won one of his last three bouts.
Wright, meanwhile, holds a similar octagon record of 2-3, but he’s lost his last two, both by stoppage. Given that the two middleweights have two decision wins between them, this one should at least be exciting.
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Todorovic probably has the stronger record, with a win over Michel Pereira prior to his UFC career, but Wright’s 77” reach should give him a slight advantage as long as he can avoid taking a big shot. Overall, this could go either way, but the pick is Todorovic via TKO.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC light-heavyweight division: Misha Cirkunov vs. Alonzo Menifield
UFC bantamweight division: Brandon Davis vs. Leomana Martinez
UFC middleweight division: Nick Maximov vs. Jacob Malkoun
UFC bantamweight division: Raphael Assuncao vs. Victor Henry
UFC strawweight division: Sam Hughes vs. Piera Rodriguez
UFC flyweight division: Tatsuro Taira vs. CJ Vergara
UFC welterweight division: Mike Jackson vs. Pete Rodriguez