UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas
The UFC is back at the Las Vegas APEX this weekend for another Fight Night event, and like last weekend's card, this one looks a bit thin on quality.
UFC Fight Night: Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas features a fun-sounding flyweight main event, but the rest of the card is largely lacking in name value.
Still, there's always hope that these fights will deliver some good action.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas.
#1. UFC flyweight bout: Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas
With both of these women rated very highly, this could be both a fun fight and an important one for the strawweight division too.
Right now, Rose Namajunas is in a weird situation. She's ranked at No. 8 in the UFC's women's pound-for-pound rankings, but doesn't have another number by her name.
This is because after losing her strawweight crown to Carla Esparza in 2022, she moved up to 125 pounds in 2023 and lost to Manon Fiorot, causing her to drop out of the rankings at 115 pounds.
Realistically, if she wins here, 'Thug Rose' is right back in title contention. A two-time strawweight champion, she's an enigma of sorts, but is still hugely dangerous.
Essentially, from an offensive perspective, Namajunas is perfect. She has quick hands, strong kicks, and was able to outstrike both Weili Zhang and the great Joanna Jedrzejczyk across four bouts.
On the ground, meanwhile, she isn't the best wrestler, but does possess a venomous submission game that she's used to tap out the likes of Michelle Waterson-Gomez and Paige VanZant.
However, 'Thug Rose' is also very much a fighter who thrives on vibes. For some reason, she'll come into some fights completely flat and unable to get anything going.
That's exactly what led to her early loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz, and it also led directly to her losses to both Esparza and Fiorot. So can she get her mojo back here?
If she doesn't, she's in trouble. Amanda Ribas isn't as heralded, but interestingly, she is currently ranked at No. 7 at 115 pounds and No. 8 at 125 pounds.
Essentially, the Brazilian has been able to float between both strawweight and flyweight and find success, beating the likes of Mackenzie Dern, Viviane Araujo, and Luana Pinheiro.
She has very few weaknesses, but despite this, she has shown issues with heavy hitters before, being outstruck by Katlyn Cerminara and stopped via TKO at the hands of Maycee Barber and Marina Rodriguez.
Essentially, then, this one comes down to what version of 'Thug Rose' competes. If the same animal who took out Zhang and Jedrzjeczyk shows up, then Ribas is probably in big trouble and will likely lose in violent fashion.
If that Namajunas is gone, though - and that's possible, given she's been around for a decade at the top and is now 31 years old - then Ribas could easily push the pace and outpoint her.
Overall it's difficult to pick, but if the extended period away has helped Namajunas rediscover herself, then she's the clear pick given her experience and talent.
The Pick: Namajunas via second-round TKO
#2. UFC heavyweight bout: Justin Tafa vs. Karl Williams
Perhaps the most interesting thing about this fight is the weird twist of fate involving the Tafa brothers, Justin Tafa and Junior Tafa.
Initially, Justin was booked to fight Marcos Rogerio de Lima at UFC 298, with Junioir set to face Karl Williams here.
Instead, though, when Justin picked up an injury, Junior stepped in to replace him on short notice and was TKO'd. In turn, that sidelined him from his bout with Williams, leaving - who else? - his brother to pick up the fight instead.
Outside of that there isn't much to say here. Tafa is a known quantity in the UFC, having been around for some time now. Like his fellow Aussie Tai Tuivasa, he's a brawler by trade with heavy hands and knockout power, but his ground game and defensive skills are lacking.
Unlike Tuivasa, though, 'Bad Man' is very plodding, meaning that unless he picks up an early KO, as he did against Austen Lane, he can be involved in slower bouts.
Williams has two octagon wins to his name, but as they're both via decision, it's clear he doesn't quite pack the power of Tafa.
Given that both of his fights descended into slow-paced brawls with both fighters exhausted, there isn't much hope for a classic here. In fact, if Williams wins it's likely he'll do so by simply muscling Tafa around enough to tire him out.
However, given the punching power of 'Bad Man', with any hope he'll land something big in the early going, putting the fight away in the first.
The Pick: Tafa via first-round KO
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a middleweight bout, Edmen Shahbazyan takes on AJ Dobson. Once considered the division's best prospect, Shahbazyan has fallen on hard times recently.
'Golden Boy' has now won just once in his last five outings to the octagon, and while he hasn't been fighting scrubs, it's been a worrying slide for him. Offensively, he's still excellent, but there are now constant questions around his defense and durability.
Dobson, however, is by far the least heralded opponent he's faced recently. He won his last fight in the octagon, but prior to that was 0-2 in the promotion.
Given that Dobson has never beaten anyone close to Shahbazyan's level, this looks like a good rebound for the youngster. The pick is Shahbazyan via TKO.
At bantamweight, Payton Talbott takes on Cameron Saaiman. Like Shahbazyan, Saaiman was once seen as a hot prospect, as he won his first three bouts in the octagon impressively.
The native of South Africa lost last time out, falling to Christian Rodriguez, but to be fair, Rodriguez also missed weight badly, giving the defeat an asterisk.
Talbott, on the other hand, is still unbeaten at 7-0 and did impress in his debut in November. Overall, this one is a tough fight to pick as both men possess solid skills and haven't really been tested all that much yet. Therefore, the South African's experience might pull him through, making Saaiman via decision the pick.
In a featherweight tilt, Billy Quarantillo takes on Youssef Zalal. Both of these men are renowned for high-octane bouts, meaning this one should be exciting.
Quarantillo might actually be one of the UFC's more underrated fighters. He's 6-3, and with his only losses coming to high-level fighters like Edson Barboza and Shane Burgos, could be on the cusp of the top 15.
Zalal, on the other hand, hasn't fought in the octagon since a slide saw him lose three in a row and draw one. He's since picked up two wins on the regional circuit, but is taking this bout on late notice to replace the injured Gabriel Miranda.
Given Zalal's very late notice and Quarantillo's underrated skills, the pick is Quarantillo via submission.
Finally, Fernando Padilla takes on Luis Pajuelo in another featherweight bout. Both of these men have little experience at the top level, with Padilla being 1-1 in the octagon and Pajuelo making his debut after a win on Dana White's Contender Series.
That makes things remarkably hard to pick, as we just don't know all that much about either man. With that said, Padilla did look excellent in his debut win over Julian Erosa, so the pick is Padilla via TKO.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC lightweight bout: Kurt Holobaugh vs. Trey Ogden
UFC featherweight bout: Ricardo Ramos vs. Julian Erosa
UFC bantamweight bout: Miles Johns vs. Cody Gibson
UFC featherweight bout: Jarno Errens vs. Steven Nguyen
UFC bantamweight bout: Montserrat Rendon vs. Darya Zheleznyakova
UFC flyweight bout: Igor Severino vs. Andre Lima
UFC heavyweight bout: Mohammed Usman vs. Mick Parkin