UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira
The UFC is back at the Las Vegas APEX for the second weekend in a row on Oct. 19. This time, the event is headlined by a middleweight bout.
UFC Fight Night: Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira is perhaps the thinnest card of the month in terms of star power, but it's solid enough nonetheless.
With several exciting-sounding fights, hopefully, this will prove to be a show worth watching.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira.
#1. UFC middleweight bout: Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira
Initially scheduled for UFC 306 in September, the UFC has instead moved this exciting-sounding middleweight bout to this event, and it's easy to see why it's headlining.
Not only are both Anthony Hernandez and Michel Pereira currently ranked in the top 15 at 185 pounds, but they're also on excellent runs and tend to put on great fights, too.
Who comes out on top, though?
Of the two, it's arguable that Pereira has been the more impressive. His winning streak certainly dates back longer, as he hasn't lost since back in 2019.
Since then, he's won eight in a row, but it's since he moved to middleweight a year ago that he's really hit his stride. 'Demolidor' was a dangerous 170-pounder but he was also far too big there and appeared to fade out even in fights he went on to win.
That hasn't been the case since he moved to 185 pounds. Since that move, he's dispatched three foes in under two minutes, finishing all of them with ease.
His last performance, against Ihor Potieria, was especially pretty wild. Pereira decked him, backflipped onto him, and then tapped him with a high-angle guillotine choke, earning a $50k bonus in the process.
Essentially, 'Demolidor' is still the same wildman he was in his early days, but now he tends to fight in a more controlled frenzy.
Rather than attempt nothing but low-percentage shots, he'll throw far more technical strikes, and if he gets a foe hurt, he'll then throw something crazy or hunt for a submission. It's a method that honestly hasn't been found out yet.
Hernandez is more meat-and-potatoes, and it's arguable that 'Fluffy' has succeeded largely due to his toughness. He was in trouble against Rodolfo Vieira, but survived and then managed to submit the shell-shocked Brazilian as he exhausted himself.
Against Edmen Shahbazyan, meanwhile, he gutted out some difficult positions to gain some dominance on the ground before slicing 'Golden Boy' up for an eventual TKO.
It's likely that Hernandez's best chance here, then, is to gut out the first section of the fight and hope that Pereira slows down. If he does, then 'Fluffy' has both the toughness and the skills to take him out down the stretch.
That's going to be a huge challenge, though. To be frank, Hernandez is not the most natural athlete in this division, and the last time he fought an explosive opponent—Kevin Holland—he was taken out quickly.
If anything, Pereira is even more explosive and dangerous than Holland in the early going, and if he comes at Hernandez with his usual fury, it's unlikely that 'Fluffy' is going to survive.
Hernandez will probably have more success in the future, but it feels like he isn't going to be able to avoid the inevitable rush that's going to hit him early here. This is a bad match for him, and so 'Demolidor' should win handily.
The Pick: Pereira via first-round TKO
#2. UFC bantamweight bout: Rob Font vs. Kyler Phillips
On paper, this fight lacks name value, but it does pit two of the top fifteen bantamweights in the world against one another. That alone makes it well worth watching.
While he was once considered an outside title contender, it's probably fair to label Rob Font the 135-pound division's top gatekeeper now.
The striker is 1-4 in his last five octagon bouts, but realistically, there's no shame in losses to Deiveson Figueiredo, Cory Sandhagen, Marlon Vera or Jose Aldo. In fact, the fact that none of the four finished Font is impressive.
His lone win in this stretch came in April 2023, when he violently stopped highly rated prospect Adrian Yanez. The big question here, then, is whether he can find a way to defeat another prospect in Kyler Phillips.
Overall, Font's best attribute is his kickboxing ability. One of the taller bantamweights on the roster at 5ft 8in, Font tends to fight behind a jab and looks to stay on the outside, picking his foes off with combinations and low kicks.
He's excellent at this approach, and if he can get into a rhythm, he's very difficult to stop. However, he lacks finishing ability against higher-level opponents, and while he hasn't been finished recently, he can be hurt if a fighter can get inside his reach.
The interesting thing in this fight is the fact that Phillips also stands at 5ft 8in and will enjoy a very slight reach advantage on Font.
'The Matrix' is arguably the division's most underrated fighter, too, as he's 6-1, and holds wins over Song Yadong and Pedro Munhoz. Were it not for a curious loss to Raulian Paiva - in which Phillips just didn't look himself - he'd probably have far more hype around him.
The native of Glendale, Arizona, came into the promotion with a reputation as a dangerous striker, and he's largely lived up to that. While his last finish came via submission, for the most part, Phillips is a man who attacks with unpredictability and volume, never slowing down for a second.
Both Yadong and in particular Munhoz couldn't cope with that volume-based attack, and if Font can't settle into a rhythm, he's going to be in trouble here.
Overall, it feels like the styles here suit Phillips down to the ground. Font isn't threatening enough in any single area to really prevent 'The Matrix' from coming at him full throttle, and that's bad news for him.
It's unlikely that Phillips will finish the veteran, as if the likes of Vera and Figueiredo couldn't, it's clearly a painfully difficult task. However, we can probably expect him to push the pace and land enough strikes that Font has little answer.
The Pick: Phillips via decision
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a flyweight bout, Charles Johnson takes on Su Mudaerji. Interestingly, these men have identical MMA records of 16-6, although Mudaerji has been around the UFC for four years longer.
That's not the only contrast, though. After an up-and-down start to his octagon career, Johnson is now on a strong run, winning his last three bouts. His last fight, in fact, was a hugely impressive knockout win over the highly rated Joshua Van.
Mudaerji, on the other hand, has had his moments, but 'The Tibetan Eagle' has now not won since 2021. With that said, both of those losses came via submission, an area that doesn't appear to be Johnson's speciality.
Overall this one could go either way, but due purely to momentum, the pick is Johnson via KO.
At bantamweight, Brady Hiestand faces Jake Hadley. Again, this looks like an evenly-matched bout between two fighters with similar records.
Overall, though, it feels like Hiestand might have the advantage here. Not only is the TUF veteran a dangerous finisher both standing and on the ground, but he's also fought - and beaten - better competition than 'White Kong'.
Hadley's best bet here might be to get this one to the ground, given his submission skills. However, 'Bam Bam' should have enough to block his takedowns, meaning the pick is Hiestand via late TKO.
In a battle of featherweight veterans, Darren Elkins faces Daniel Pineda.
Given his insane tenure and the amount of damage he's taken - no pun intended - it's a miracle that Elkins is still fighting. Remarkably, though, he is coming off a win - a submission of TJ Brown a year ago.
Pineda is almost as experienced, first debuting back in 2012. He's never quite reached the heights that Elkins once did, although he is a dangerous fighter in all areas.
The issue here for 'The Pit' is that unless he's against a really high-end opponent, Elkins is still stupidly durable, something Pineda himself has largely never been.
'The Damage' isn't the strongest finisher, though, meaning this one could go the distance, but it feels likely that he'll hurt Pineda enough times to win. The pick is Elkins via decision.
Finally, Matheus Nicolau takes on Asu Almabayev at flyweight. This should be a big test for Kazakhstan's Almabayev, who is unbeaten since 2017 and is 3-0 in the UFC.
'Zulfikar' is largely renowned for his grappling, although he can crack on the feet too. The big issue for him is that he simply hasn't fought top-level opposition yet.
The same can't be said for Nicolau, who has faced the likes of Manel Kape, Brandon Royval, and Alex Perez. The Brazilian has good skills in all areas, but he has tended to lose to his better opponents, including the two aforementioned former title challengers.
This one is difficult to pick purely because Almabayev is still unproven, but based on what he's done so far if he can avoid the big shot from Nicolau, he should have enough to grind him down. The pick is Almabayev via decision.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC bantamweight bout: Brad Katona vs. Jean Matsumoto
UFC bantamweight bout: Joselyne Edwards vs. Tamires Vidal
UFC strawweight bout: Jessica Penne vs. Elise Reed
UFC strawweight bout: Melissa Martin vs. Alice Ardelean
UFC heavyweight bout: Austen Lane vs. Robelis Despaigne