UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval 2
The UFC returns to Mexico City this weekend for the first time since September 2019 for what should be an excellent Fight Night event.
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval 2 features two huge bouts in the headliner and co-headliner, and while the rest isn’t quite so strong, it should hopefully be a lot of fun to watch.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval 2.
#1. UFC flyweight bout: Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval
Firstly, the fact that this bout, and not Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega, is headlining this show is a mark of the respect that the UFC appear to have for former flyweight king Brandon Moreno.
Probably the most successful Mexican-born fighter in UFC history, ‘The Assassin Baby’ has not fought since his crazy war with Alexandre Pantoja back in July. That fight was an utter war that could’ve gone either way, and Moreno didn’t really come away looking bad, even if he lost his title in the process.
Remarkably, this fight will be his first non-title one since his initial win over Brandon Royval back in November 2020. Since then, he’s been involved in no fewer than six wars, three of which went five rounds and none of which were easy.
So, does he have enough left in the tank to dispatch ‘Raw Dawg’ in the same way that he did in their first meeting? It’s debatable.
On one hand, he’s still only 30 years old and is clearly a better overall fighter than Royval. He’s a dangerous striker from all areas, has an underrated grappling game, and is tougher than leather.
On the other hand, he’s taken a lot of damage over the past couple of years, and he’s up against a fighter who, while not the most polished, has an insane level of killer instinct if he gets a foe hurt.
To add to this, their first bout was largely a back-and-forth one, and while Moreno dispatched Royval late in the first round, a potential shoulder injury may have been the key incident, allowing ‘The Assassin Baby’ to open up with unanswered punches.
Interestingly, Royval’s last fight also saw him in a five-round war with Pantoja. He was outpointed in the end but gave the Brazilian plenty of scares along the way.
‘Raw Dawg’ is dangerous from every position, but his absolute commitment to offense leaves him open. While his shoulder injury led to his demise in his first bout with Moreno, for instance, part of the issue was also the fact that he went for a crazy leglock without fully protecting himself.
Overall, this promises to be a wild fight, but unless Moreno has lost a step recently, he should probably be one step ahead of ‘Raw Dawg’, and that should prove the difference. Expect ‘The Assassin Baby’ to edge this, likely in the late rounds.
The Pick: Moreno via fourth-round TKO
#2. UFC featherweight bout: Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega
When the UFC put this bout between top-ranked featherweights Yair Rodriguez and Brian Ortega together back in July 2022, the promotion’s entire fanbase was buzzing.
It looked like one of the best possible fights to put together in the division on paper, but unfortunately, it went very wrong. Ortega suffered a freak shoulder injury as Rodriguez went for an armbar, and the fight was over in an anticlimactic fashion.
‘T-City’ has unsurprisingly not fought since, while Rodriguez claimed the interim 145-pound title in his next bout by destroying Josh Emmett. However, his last fight saw him dismantled by Alexander Volkanovski.
‘El Pantera’ remains the same wildman he’s always been. A ridiculously offensive fighter who throws low-percentage shots like another fighter would throw a jab, his extreme athleticism allows this approach to work most of the time.
Sure, he can be ground down, as Volkanovski and Frankie Edgar did, but if he’s given room to operate, then he’s very tricky to stop. Even Max Holloway had issues with his approach, with the Mexican giving ‘Blessed’ more problems than most.
This makes him an interesting match for Ortega. ‘T-City’ is equally offensively minded, although he’s much more orthodox on the feet. On the ground, though, he’s a genuine wizard, capable of snatching up submissions from seemingly any area, particularly with chokes.
Given both men have a penchant for being willing to fight anywhere, even if that means they end up in their opponent’s wheelhouse, it’s no surprise that everyone was so excited for it.
On paper, you’d perhaps favor Ortega to win here. However, that would ignore two major x-factors. Firstly, Rodriguez will hold the home-field advantage, something that’s probably a bigger issue given Mexico City’s famed elevation.
Secondly, Ortega has not fought since the summer of 2022, and hasn’t won outright since his October 2020 win over the Korean Zombie. That’s a very long time in MMA, and it’s hard to know how a fighter will rebound from that kind of shoulder injury.
‘T-City’ is remarkably tough, meaning putting him away will take something special. Rodriguez is capable of that, of course, but it’s probably more likely that he’ll do enough to win a decision.
The Pick: Rodriguez via decision
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a lightweight bout, prospect Daniel Zellhuber faces Francisco Prado. This one should be fun to watch as both men tend to finish their opponents, and Zellhuber in particular, is a very offensively-minded fighter.
While ‘Golden Boy’ is only 2-1 in the octagon, he impressed greatly in his last two fights, dominating veteran Lando Vannata before choking out Christos Giagos in his most recent outing.
Prado, meanwhile, was able to score a big knockout over Ottman Azaitar in his last bout. However, despite all of his enthusiasm and aggression, he’s far less polished than Zellhuber based on the evidence we’ve seen.
Overall, Prado has a puncher’s chance here, but due to the home-field advantage, his lengthier reach, and overall skills, the pick is Zellhuber via decision.
In a bantamweight clash, 19-year-old Raul Rosas Jr takes on Ricky Turcios. This is the latest test for the young ‘El Nino Problema’, who showed massive improvements in his most recent win, a knockout over Terrence Mitchell.
Notably, the Mitchell bout came way back in September, meaning Rosas Jr has had five months to continue developing his skills. Based on how much he’d improved in that fight since his defeat to Christian Rodriguez, it’s fair to expect more from him here.
Opponent Turcios has the same amount of octagon experience, but despite winning two of his three bouts, he doesn’t look all that threatening in terms of finishing ability, nor does he appear to be one of those super-tough grinding veterans.
With that considered, it’s likely that this one will go the way of Rosas Jr. The pick is ‘El Nino Problema’ via submission.
At strawweight, Yazmin Jauregui takes on Sam Hughes. Mexico’s Jauregui was getting plenty of hype before her last fight as she’d won two in a row in the octagon, but then she succumbed to a 20-second KO against Denise Gomes. So, can Hughes repeat that feat?
That probably feels doubtful. Hughes only has two knockouts to her name, and while one of them came in the octagon, she isn’t that explosive of an athlete. She definitely has enough skills to worry Jauregui, but overall, this feels like a bounce-back fight for the Mexican.
The pick, therefore, is Jauregui via decision.
Finally, in a lightweight tilt, Manuel Torres faces Chris Duncan. This one could be the best fight on the card outside of the two headliners, as both men are unbeaten in the octagon at a combined 4-0. Torres does have two wins via finish, but does that make him the favorite?
Perhaps. A dangerous offensive fighter, ‘El Loco’ has only lost twice in his career, both to flash leg submissions, something that Duncan is unlikely to replicate. Scotland’s Duncan, meanwhile, has only lost once, but that came via KO.
‘The Problem’ is willing to duke it out with his foes, but that might prove to be an issue this weekend. Torres can clearly crack, and judging from what we’ve seen, he might be the slightly quicker fighter. Therefore, the pick is Torres via KO in a firefight.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC bantamweight division: Cristian Quinonez vs. Raoni Barcelos
UFC flyweight bout: Jesus Santos Aguilar vs. Mateus Mendonca
UFC flyweight bout: Edgar Chairez vs. Daniel Lacerda
UFC lightweight bout: Claudio Puelles vs. Fares Ziam
UFC flyweight bout: Luis Rodriguez vs. Denys Bondar
UFC flyweight bout: Victor Altamirano vs. Felipe dos Santos
UFC featherweight bout: Erik Silva vs. Muhammad Naimov