UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira
The UFC returns to its Las Vegas APEX next weekend for a Figth Night event. While the card isn't loaded, it looks solid enough.
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira features one of the month's standout fights in the headliner, as well as some other intriguing fights in various divisions.
Will it be overshadowed by October's pay-per-view events? Sure, but that doesn't mean it won't be worth watching.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira.
#1. UFC flyweight bout: Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira
Not only is this fight one of the best of the month on paper, but it could well decide the next UFC flyweight title challenger.
The fight pits No.1 ranked Brandon Royval against No.5 ranked Tatsuro Taira, and it's a remarkably tricky one to pick.
Of the two, it's arguable that while Royval has the biggest recent win, it's Taira who will bring more momentum into the octagon.
The Japanese star became the only fighter born in the 2000s to secure a UFC headline win earlier this year when he was able to dispatch former title challenger Alex Perez in the second round.
It's probably fair to say that the win was a bit of a curiosity. Officially, it came due to Perez suffering a knee injury. However, this wasn't a fluke by any means.
After a tricky first round, Taira looked to take Perez down and eventually jumped onto his back. From there, he used his hooks to yank his foe to the ground, wrenching his knee in the process to lead to the finish.
After snacking on lower-level foes to take his overall record to 15-0, this win proved that Taira can compete at the very top level.
A smooth operator, the Japanese fighter has excellent skills in all areas. He's not the most concussive striker, but he can definitely crack and he's technically sound, particularly defensively.
It's on the ground where Taira really shines, though, being able to pull off submissions from both on top and on his back, he's always a threat. His takedowns could probably do with some more work, but if he can get an opponent down, they're in danger.
How does he match up with Royval? That depends on how 'Raw Dawg' approaches this fight.
Early in his career, he lived up to his nickname and fought like a wildman. Royval brought insane aggression, but with it came a tendency to throw himself into trouble, too.
He picked up excellent wins over the likes of Kai Kara-France and Tim Elliott but was somewhat exposed by both Brandon Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja prior to their title reigns.
Since then, interestingly enough, he's rematched both men to differing results.
Royval's fight with Pantoja saw him push the pace but come out on the wrong end of a relatively close decision. Against Moreno, though, he used volume more than we'd seen from him before and edged him out over five rounds in front of his home fans.
It's an approach that Royval would probably be smart to take here. If he attempts to hang back against Taira, he's likely to be taken down, and if he gets too wild, then he'll also risk being caught in a scramble. Either path could lead to his doom.
If 'Raw Dawg' can simply keep the Japanese star on the wrong end of his combinations, though, then he should be able to take the fight the distance and claim a decision win.
What's worrying for Royval, though, is that he'll be giving up two inches of reach to Taira, who isn't a novice striker by any means.
More to the point, 'Raw Dawg' only has a takedown defense rate of 40%, which is concerning in a five-round fight against a truly lethal grappler like Taira.
Therefore, this one is close to call, but it feels likely that the Japanese fighter will get the fight down at some point, and once he does, he'll find a way to tap Royval out - setting up a 2025 date with Pantoja.
The Pick: Taira via third-round submission
#2. UFC middleweight bout: Brad Tavares vs. Jun Yong Park
Initially, this fight was supposed to go down at a Fight Night event in July, only to fall apart at the last second. Back then, it felt curious that the UFC had chosen it as a co-headliner, but the event it was intended to be on was a weaker one.
Quite why this event, then - which is a deeper card than the July show - still has Brad Tavares vs. Jun Yong Park as its co-headliner is a true head-scratcher. Either way, fans should just hope for an exciting fight.
Whether they get one, though, is up for debate. Tavares, a veteran of the octagon since 2010, is hardly the most lethal finisher.
Park does have some more stoppages on his record, but 'The Iron Turtle' has tended to snack on lower-level foes and struggle when he's stepped up.
Essentially then, this fight depends on where Tavares now sits in the bigger picture. Once a staple of the top fifteen without really becoming a title contender, the Hawaiian holds notable wins over the likes of Elias Theodorou and Chris Weidman.
However, his victory over Weidman stands as his only one in his last four fights, and at the age of 36, he's clearly slowing down.
Still, one thing Tavares has always been is tough. Despite taking nine losses during his octagon career, he's never been submitted, and the fighters who've knocked him out were far better strikers than Park.
So does 'The Iron Turtle' stand a chance here? He's unlikely to tap Tavares out, and while he could attempt to simply stifle him over three rounds, the Hawaiian has remarkably underrated takedown defense.
Park has been finished three times in his career, but again, it feels unlikely that Tavares will pull that off given his tendency to go the distance.
Therefore, it's likely we'll see a relatively pedestrian fight that sees Tavares fend off Park's takedown attempts and do enough damage to shut him out on the judges' scorecards.
The Pick: Tavares via decision
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a lightweight bout, Grant Dawson takes on Rafa Garcia. Dawson was looking en route to a top-fifteen ranking last year but suffered a shocking KO loss at the hands of Bobby Green. 'KGD' has bounced back since, though, and is looking for his second win in a row now.
Dawson isn't the best athlete, but he's a gritty, hard-nosed grappler with the ability to dispatch any fighter if he can get a dominant position on the ground. Thankfully for him here, Garcia isn't nearly as explosive or quick as Green and has multiple octagon losses against fighters worse than Dawson on his record.
Dawson's chin has been cracked, of course, meaning this isn't a certainty by any means, but Garcia definitely looks like the kind of fighter 'KGD' should deal with. The pick, therefore, is Dawson via submission.
At strawweight, Julia Polastri takes on Cory McKenna. Polastri has taken this fight on late notice, which is somewhat of a worry for her. However, on paper, the Brazilian would seem to have a couple of advantages.
She'll almost certainly be the better grappler this weekend, and judging purely by her record, she's a better finisher than 'Poppins', who just isn't the most explosive athlete.
With that said, two weeks' notice is a difficult task for any fighter, and Polastri didn't look all that great in her octagon debut. The pick, therefore, is McKenna via decision.
In a great-sounding welterweight tilt, Daniel Rodriguez faces Alex Morono. Rodriguez is actually on a three-fight skid right now, but he's lost to Neil Magny, Ian Machado Garry and Kelvin Gastelum - three high-level fighters.
This one should be a chance for 'D-Rod' to bounce back. Morono is a tough brawler who is willing to throw down with anyone. However, 'The Great White' doesn't have all that much outside of his brawling skills.
He could win this one if Rodriguez chooses to get risky and go toe-to-toe with him, but if he can instead mix things up and push the pace, he should have enough to win. The pick is Rodriguez via decision.
Finally, Abdul Razak Alhassan takes on Josh Fremd in a middleweight clash. This one should be a simple fight to predict. Alhassan is a painfully limited fighter in many ways, but he's remarkably explosive and hits as hard as anyone in the promotion.
Fremd, meanwhile, is a solid jack-of-all-trades, but it's unlikely that he's going to be able to cope with the early rush that 'Judo Thunder' will bring. If he can survive that rush then he might be able to grind something out, but it feels more likely that he'll suffer a nasty stoppage. The pick is Alhassan via KO.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC welterweight bout: Chidi Njokuani vs. Jared Gooden
UFC flyweight bout: CJ Vergara vs. Ramazan Temirov
UFC featherweight bout: Jonathan Pearce vs. Pat Sabatini
UFC welterweight bout: Themba Gorimbo vs. Niko Price
UFC heavyweight bout: Chris Barnett vs. Junior Tafa
UFC bantamweight bout: Daniel Argueta vs. Cody Haddon
UFC flyweight bout: Clayton Carpenter vs. Lucas Rocha