UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Derrick Lewis vs. Sergey Spivak
After a spectacular pay-per-view this past weekend, the UFC returns to Las Vegas this weekend for a Fight Night event that obviously isn’t close to the same quality as the card that preceded it.
UFC Fight Night: Derrick Lewis vs. Sergey Spivak is lacking hugely in terms of both name talent and ranked fighters, so the hope can only be that it’ll deliver some exciting bouts.
Overall, this looks like a bit of a skippable show for casual fans. However, as always with the world’s biggest MMA promotion, you never know when a classic could be produced.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Derrick Lewis vs. Sergey Spivak.
#1. UFC heavyweight division: Derrick Lewis vs. Sergey Spivak
While these two fighters are ranked in the UFC heavyweight division’s top 10 – Derrick Lewis is No.7, Sergey Spivak is No.12 – it’s safe to say that if we’re honest, neither man is going to challenge for the heavyweight title any time soon.
With that said, though, this is still a solid main event for a couple of reasons. Firstly, neither man tends to put on a dull fight or go the distance, so we should be in for fireworks and a violent finish at the very least.
Secondly, Lewis has been a reliable headliner for the promotion for some time now, and this should be a chance for him to show that despite going 1-3 in his last four fights, he’s still got something to offer at the top level.
Is that the case, though, or is ‘The Black Beast’ done? Well, on the one hand, it’s true that he’s not as durable as he once was. By heavyweight standards, he wasn’t overly durable to begin with. Even though he still packs a hefty punch, that has to be worrying.
On the other hand, though, there’s no shame in losing to Ciryl Gane, who is probably the second-best heavyweight on the planet right now. Also, while Tai Tuivasa is still limited to an extent, he also packs a whallop of his own and the elbow he used to knock out Lewis would’ve put a horse away.
That leaves his more recent loss to Sergei Pavlovich. While it was not ideal to be put away in under a minute in his home state, Lewis did protest that stoppage and most people, Dana White included, tended to agree.
Thankfully for ‘The Black Beast’, on paper at least, Spivak is a more favorable opponent. ‘The Polar Bear’ is arguably an underrated fighter, holding an impressive octagon record of 6-3. However, with a deeper look, there are reasons he might struggle against Lewis.
Firstly, he’s substantially smaller than ‘The Black Beast’, weighing around 240lbs. Despite this, he doesn’t appear to be the quickest heavyweight. Secondly, the fighters he’s beaten have tended to be very limited (Greg Hardy, Jared Vanderaa) or succumbed to him on the ground after an easy takedown.
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Lewis isn’t the best wrestler, but he does have decent enough takedown defense and also knows how to escape from his back, particularly against a smaller foe.
Can Spivak’s chin hold up to Lewis’ power? It’s doubtful. He was knocked out badly by both Walt Harris and Tom Aspinall, and simply doesn’t seem all that durable, something that any fighter taking on Lewis needs to be.
Basically, this fight feels a lot like Lewis’ bout with Chris Daukaus last year, and so unless ‘The Black Beast’ is indeed shot, this should be another KO win for him.
The Pick: Lewis via first-round KO
#2. UFC light heavyweight division: Ion Cutelaba vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu
In a parallel universe, this fight could be positioned as the co-headliner of a pay-per-view card, with a shot at the UFC light heavyweight title on the line. After all, just a few years ago, both Ion Cutelaba and Kennedy Nzechukwu were considered two of the brighter prospects in the world at 205lbs.
What’s happened, then? Essentially, neither man has lived up to their potential, meaning they’ve instead become relatively reliable action fighters who will put on a brawl and pick up the odd impressive knockout, but just don’t seem capable of ascending to the elite level.
Of the two, the fall of Cutelaba has perhaps been the more frustrating. ‘The Hulk’ burst onto the scene in 2016 with an explosive power game that seemed tailor-made for the UFC.
He did suffer a couple of losses, falling to Misha Cirkunov and Jared Cannonier. But overall, he seemed to have the punching power and violent takedowns that could send him to the top. Since then, though, he’s been wildly inconsistent.
At times, he’s looked like a world-beater, with his brutal win over Khalil Rountree instantly coming to mind. However, on too many occasions he’s simply ran out of steam after throwing bombs too early, and has ended up falling to bad finishes, both by TKO and submission.
Essentially, if he can finish an opponent quickly, then he will, but if that opponent survives, he’s probably in trouble.
So can Nzechukwu weather an early storm? It’s debatable. ‘The African Savage’ is a heavy hitter with explosive power and no real weaknesses per say. However, it’s arguable that he came to the promotion a little too early and wasn’t given the chance to fully round out his game. Basically, he’s learning on the job.
With that said, he has shown durability at times, with all four of his octagon wins coming in the later rounds, and was only taken out in the first round once, by the elbows of Da Un Jung in 2021. So if he can clinch early, wear down Cutelaba and avoid the big shot, this should be winnable for him.
Controlled the fight from start to finish!
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Expect a slightly sloppy fight, but it feels likely that Nzechukwu will probably get it done down the stretch, probably with strikes.
The Pick: Nzechukwu via second-round TKO
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a middleweight bout, jiu-jitsu ace Rodolfo Vieira faces Cody Brundage. This one is easy to pick; if Vieira can get Brundage down early, then he’s highly likely to find a way to submit him. If he can’t, then he might gas out and allow Brundage to grind out a decision.
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Brundage has looked decent in his last two bouts, knocking out two opponents in a row. However, the fact that Nick Maximov took him down more than once in their 2021 bout doesn’t bode well. The pick, then, is Vieira via submission.
At heavyweight, prospect Waldo Cortes-Acosta makes a quick turnaround to take on Chase Sherman. The big question here is whether ‘Salsa Boy’ has fully recovered from his three-round win over Jared Vanderaa just three weeks ago. He did take some damage there, making his choice to take this bout a curious one.
With that said, Sherman’s chin is highly questionable. In two octagon stints, he’s gone 3-9, although it’s worth noting he did stop Vanderaa in their fight. This could go either way, but the pick is Cortes-Acosta via decision.
In what could be a wild welterweight fight, Andre Fialho faces Muslim Salikhov. Both of these men are renowned for their flashy striking styles, meaning we should be in for a treat when they face off.
Who will take it? It’s hard to say as both men have finishing skills and are capable of taking out their foes in a rush. However, Salikhov seems slightly better rounded, and based on what we’ve seen of Fialho as a fight gets deeper, could have better cardio too. With that in mind, the pick is Salikhov via decision.
Finally, Australian prospect Jack Della Maddalena faces Danny Roberts in a welterweight scrap. Roberts is the more seasoned fighter, having been in the promotion since 2015. He has turned back the challenge of hot prospects before.
However, Maddalena appears to be a remarkably sharp striker, has a ton of confidence in his skills, and Roberts has struggled with hard hitters before. Therefore, the pick is Maddalena via KO.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC light heavyweight bout: William Knight vs. Marcin Prachnio
UFC flyweight bout: Charles Johnson vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov
UFC flyweight bout: Jennifer Maia vs. Maryna Moroz
UFC bantamweight bout: Vince Morales vs. Miles Johns
UFC bantamweight bout: Kevin Natividad vs. Ricky Turcios
UFC strawweight bout: Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Maria Oliveira
UFC bantamweight bout: Brady Hiestand vs. Fernie Garcia
UFC flyweight bout: Natalia Silva vs. Tereza Bleda