UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady
The UFC returns to the Las Vegas APEX next weekend for its latest Fight Night event. This one features a pretty great main event by anyone's standards.
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady not only has a strong headliner but to be fair, it isn't a bad card in general for the APEX.
Will the action deliver? With any hope, the answer will be yes, but you never know.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady.
#1. UFC welterweight bout: Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady
It says a lot about the quality of this headliner that many fans took to social media when it was announced, bemoaning the fact that it was set for the APEX rather than a bigger venue.
In reality, it's nice to see such a high-level fight headline one of these cards rather than a throwaway tilt. Make no mistake, Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady is a genuinely excellent fight between two of the world's top welterweights.
So, who will come out on top? There are a number of things to consider here.
Perhaps the biggest question here is how much Burns actually has left in the tank. 'Durinho' turned 38 years old in July, and has lost his last two fights, falling to Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena.
Neither fight was truly bad for him, though. Muhammad is obviously the 170-pound champion now, while Burns was arguably on his way to a win against Maddalena before the Aussie turned up the heat late on.
Prior to this, the Brazilian had outgrappled Jorge Masvidal, Neil Magny and Stephen Thompson, and even gave Khamzat Chimaev a handful.
At his best, Burns is a fireplug of a fighter who throws thudding strikes, has a powerful wrestling game, and a world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu arsenal, particularly from the top.
Brady is a fascinating match for him purely because he's one of the few fighters at 170 pounds who might be able to go hold-for-hold with 'Durinho'.
A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in his own right, the Philadelphia native is brilliant on the mat. A strong, controlling grappler who can both stifle and submit, he easily dealt with Michael Chiesa and Kelvin Gastelum on the ground, two excellent matworkers in their own right.
The only loss on Brady's record came to Muhammad in 2022, and worryingly, it represents the only recent finish on the current champ's record. 'Remember the Name' came out swinging, caught Brady, and put him away with a salvo of punches in the second round.
Prior to that finish, Brady was actually doing fine against Muhammad, largely outstriking him from the counter until he was caught. He was unable to take him down despite trying, though.
Can we take anything from that fight when it comes to this upcoming one with Burns? Possibly.
On one hand, 'Durinho' is more than capable of landing the kind of clubbing blows that did for Brady, and he's probably good enough to stop the takedown, too.
The issue, though, is that Brady was broken by the pace Muhammad was able to push, something that Burns is unlikely to be able to match.
More to the point, even if Brady can't get Burns down, he's big and strong enough to control him along the fence and probably doesn't have much to fear on the ground, either.
Overall, this one should be close, but the fact that Burns is aging while Brady appears to be hitting his prime might be the difference-maker. It might not be hugely exciting at points, but expect Brady to edge a win.
The Pick: Brady via decision
#2. UFC flyweight bout: Jessica Andrade vs. Natalia Silva
Realistically, this is the perfect kind of fight to headline or co-headline one of these smaller Fight Night events. It pits two ranked fighters against one another, but it's also a potential case of one fighter on their way up facing another on their way down.
In this instance, the fighter on their way up is definitely Natalia Silva. Currently ranked at No.8 in the flyweight division, the Brazilian has been unbeaten since 2017 and has already picked up five wins in the octagon.
Like many Brazilian prospects, Silva is a flashy finisher with more knockouts and submissions on her ledger than decisions. She's largely continued that trend in the UFC, most notably stopping Tereza Bleda with a spinning back kick in late 2022.
However, her last couple of fights have been against higher-level opposition and have seen her go the distance, showing that she's more than just a wildcard.
In those longer fights, volume was her biggest weapon, as she widely outstruck all of her opponents. More importantly for this bout in particular, she's durable, having never been finished in any of her five defeats.
That durability may be tested by her opponent this weekend, though. Jessica Andrade is a former strawweight champion, and while she's arguably past her best now, she remains a brutally heavy hitter, as we saw when she knocked out Mackenzie Dern.
Despite this, 'Bate Estaca' has shown signs of slowing down recently. She's always been a little vulnerable on the ground, but only to fighters who have been capable of taking her down.
On the feet, though, we have seen her picked apart by more dynamic fighters like Rose Namajunas and Yan Xiaonan.
Can Silva produce a performance like that? It's hard to say, and it's worth noting that she is taking a huge step up in competition and hasn't fought anyone close to Andrade's level before.
Given that Andrade showed as recently as April that she still has plenty in the tank, even if she's no longer a title threat, this might be a very difficult fight for Silva.
Silva may well be better than anyone expects and pull through, but the smart money here remains on 'Bate Estaca'.
The Pick: Andrade via decision
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a featherweight bout, Steve Garcia faces Kyle Nelson. This fight should be a lot of fun to watch, as both men are on excellent runs right now and tend to put on exciting fights.
Garcia has been around since 2020, but it's only since his 2022 drop to 145 pounds that he's hit his stride. Since then, 'Mean Machine' has finished four straight opponents, all via KO or TKO.
However, it is worth noting that he's taken this fight on a month's notice, and he only fought as a 155-pounder in late July. That raises questions about whether he can make the weight and perform at his best.
Nelson, meanwhile, started his octagon career back in 2018. He's had a largely up-and-down path since but is now unbeaten in four and looked excellent in his recent win over Bill Algeo.
Overall, this one is a razor-close fight to call. However, the fact that Nelson has been training for longer and was initially set to fight Calvin Kattar might give him the edge. The pick, therefore, is Nelson via decision.
At flyweight, Matt Schnell takes on Alessandro Costa. This one should be exciting, as Schnell is not really a contender at 125 pounds but rarely fails to deliver a fun fight.
Worryingly for 'Danger', though, there are signs that his reckless style is beginning to catch up with him. He's lost three of his last four fights, and his last two have ended with him being knocked out cold.
Can Costa repeat that feat? 'Nono' is 2-2 in the octagon, but there is no shame in losses to Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg. More to the point, the Brazilian looked excellent in a recent win over Kevin Borjas, causing plenty of damage with low kicks to set up a TKO.
As long as Costa is careful in the early going, then, this should be his fight to lose, particularly if Schnell is beginning to become as chinny as recent evidence suggests. It should be fun to watch, but the pick is Costa via TKO.
Finally, in a confusing choice for a main card bout, lightweights Trevor Peek and Yanal Ashmouz face off. Quite what to expect here is anyone's guess.
Since his debut, Peek has received a bit of a push from UFC brass, but he's still gone 2-2 in the octagon and hasn't shown much outside of toughness and crude brawling skills.
Ashmouz is even more of a question mark. He won his promotional debut over a fellow newcomer last summer and smashed his way to a win. However, his second bout saw him largely picked apart by a better technical striker.
Basically, don't expect a technical classic here by any means. Instead, it's more likely that these men throw heavy leather for three rounds, both getting tired and cruder as the time goes on. It's a coin flip, but the pick is Peek via decision.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC lightweight bout: Rong Zhu vs. Chris Padilla
UFC light-heavyweight bout: Ryan Spann vs. Ovince St. Preux
UFC strawweight bout: Jacqueline Amorim vs. Vanessa Demopoulos
UFC lightweight bout: Isaac Dulgarian vs. Brendon Marotte
UFC flyweight bout: Felipe dos Santos vs. Andre Lima
UFC featherweight bout: Yi Zha vs. Gabriel Santos
UFC middleweight bout: Andre Petroski vs. Dylan Budka
UFC featherweight bout: Zygimantas Ramaska vs. Nathan Fletcher