UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev
The UFC returns to the Las Vegas APEX for a Fight Night event this weekend that lacks in star power but might make up for that in action.
UFC Fight Night: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev features many highly exciting fighters, as well as some of the hottest prospects in the promotion. Sure, it won’t be as big a deal as the initially planned Saudi Arabia debut show would’ve been, but it should hopefully be fun nonetheless.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev.
#1. UFC heavyweight bout: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev
To say that this is an odd main event would probably be an understatement. It pits a veteran who appears to be on the downswing of his career in Jairzinho Rozenstruik against a very raw prospect with just one UFC bout in Shamil Gaziev.
So which one of these big heavyweights will take it, and if Gaziev can win, is the native of Bahrain a potential title threat in the future?
It’s probably fair to say that we don’t know too much about Gaziev. He’s a big guy at six-foot-three and 260 pounds, and he looked excellent on his octagon debut, knocking out Martin Buday in violent fashion.
Worryingly, though, while he clearly packs insane punching power and has a good killer instinct, he appears to be a little plodding. His highlight clips are full of him landing haymakers on slower fighters but also show him leaving himself open to potential counter shots from better strikers.
Rozenstruik, for all his shortcomings, remains one of the best strikers in this division. ‘Bigi Boy’ arrived in the UFC in 2019 with a big reputation from the kickboxing world, although at 6-0, it was probably arguable that he reached the top too early.
Sure enough, he derailed four opponents in a row with his slick striking before falling to Francis Ngannou before rebounding with a strong knockout win over Junior Dos Santos.
Since then, though, the Surinamese fighter has lost four of six bouts, usually being exposed on the ground by fighters capable of taking him down and keeping him there.
It’s a hole that’s been in his game from the start, but realistically, it’s the only weakness he has. Sure, Ngannou knocked him out, but it was with a wild combo that could usually have been countered, and Alexander Volkov is a handful for anyone, thanks to his ludicrous range.
Unless Gaziev packs Ngannou-like power, which is doubtful, or can get Rozenstruik down without being tempted to exchange, this fight should belong to ‘Bigi Boy’.
At the end of the day, he has far more experience and has eaten other powerful-but-plodding strikers like Chris Daukaus and Augusto Sakai for breakfast. The pick, therefore, is Rozenstruik.
The Pick: Rozenstruik via first round KO
#2. UFC light-heavyweight bout: Tyson Pedro vs. Vitor Petrino
This light heavyweight fight won’t throw up a title contender right away but is intriguing and should be fun to watch.
A few years back, there were few hotter prospects in the 205 pound division than Tyson Pedro. The Australian exploded onto the scene with three wins in four bouts, all by finish, and looked to have plenty of charisma and star potential.
Losses to the likes of Shogun Rua and Ovince St. Preux derailed his hype somewhat, but a serious knee injury in the Rua fight really wrecked his chances.
Pedro spent the next four years on the shelf. While he has looked decent since his 2022 return, winning three of four bouts via KO, he’s no longer the flashy new thing in the division and looks miles away from contention.
Vitor Petrino, meanwhile, appears to be on the climb. Unbeaten at 10-0, ‘Icao’ won on Dana White’s Contender Series to earn a UFC deal, and has since reeled off three wins, two via finish.
Interestingly, the Brazilian’s last win saw him knock out Modestas Bukauskas, the last fighter to beat Pedro. So does that bode well for ‘Icao’ this weekend?
It’s slightly difficult to say. Petrino has looked fabulous from an offensive point of view, but nobody has really pushed him yet. Pedro, if nothing else, could be recklessly aggressive and look to surprise the Brazilian with a rapid blitz.
Nevertheless, ‘Icao’ has gone the distance in the octagon, and none of his three wins there have come in quick fashion. Therefore, while he hasn’t really been pushed, he has plenty of experience at this level. He appears to be smart, too, choosing to grapple rather than strike with kickboxer Marcin Prachnio.
Unless Pedro comes in at his very best, this one could be tricky for him. Petrino has plenty of momentum, is capable of finishing his foes in all areas and is seemingly no flash-in-the-pan.
Given that Pedro, even in 2018, tended to fight in a reckless manner that often left him open, it’s difficult to see success for him here. You can’t count the Aussie out, purely because he’s so dangerous offensively, but it’s more likely that Petrino times a takedown and submits his opponent on the ground.
The Pick: Petrino via second-round submission
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a flyweight tilt, former title challenger Alex Perez will attempt to play spoiler against hot prospect Muhammad Mokaev. This is the latest test for Mokaev, and if he passes, it’s likely that he ascends quickly into title contention.
Can he do it, though? It seems likely. Perez is on a two-fight losing streak right. Although his losses came to two great fighters, Alexandre Pantoja and Deiveson Figueiredo, they both saw him outclassed on the ground.
Mokaev is not quite as battle-tested as those two but is a phenomenal wrestler whose takedown is difficult to stop. Once he gets his opponent on their back, he's brutal with ground-and-pound and is also more than capable with submissions.
Perez perhaps has a puncher’s chance here, but realistically, he’s doomed once the first takedown comes. The pick is Mokaev via submission.
At middleweight, Eryk Anders faces Jamie Pickett. Quite how this fight has made a main card in 2024 is baffling, especially as Pickett has lost his last four bouts.
Does he have anything to offer against Anders, then? ‘Ya Boi’ has never really developed how some observers might’ve hoped, as he leaves himself open to counters and doesn’t have the best cardio.
However, he hits remarkably hard, and there’s nothing that Pickett has done in the octagon that suggests he could trouble him. Therefore, the pick is Anders via KO.
At bantamweight, Umar Nurmagomedov takes on Bekzat Almakhan. If this feels like odd matchmaking, that’s because it is. That's because nobody wants to fight Nurmagomedov right now, which is understandable.
The cousin of the legendary Khabib Nurmagomedov, ‘Young Eagle’ is unbeaten at 16-0 and has destroyed every fighter he hs faced to date. With dangerous skills in all areas, he appears to have no weaknesses.
Almakhan is a newcomer with a solid record in his own right – 14-1 – but nothing he has done suggests that he could bother Nurmagomedov. However, this is a free hit for him, and stranger things have happened. The pick, though, is definitely Nurmagomedov via submission.
Finally, in a flyweight bout, Matt Schnell takes on Steve Erceg. With both men ranked in the top-10, this should be an interesting bout to watch.
Schnell is the more experienced fighter, having been around the UFC since 2016. ‘Danger’ has good skills and is exciting to watch, but the big hole in his game remains the fact that defensively, he can be awful, leaving himself open to big shots. All his losses in the octagon, in fact, have come via stoppage.
Meanwhile, Australia’s Erceg is perhaps more interesting. He arrived in the promotion on late notice last year, and stunned top-10 ranked David Dvorak, winning a clear-cut decision. He followed that up with another win over Alessandro Costa.
‘Astro Boy’ isn’t quite as wild as Schnell but is strong in all areas, and with ‘Danger’ always willing to leave gaps, this could be a chance for his first finish. With that in mind, the pick is Erceg via TKO.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC lightweight bout: Joel Alvarez vs. Ludovit Klein
UFC bantamweight bout: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Javid Basharat
UFC middleweight bout: Christian Duncan vs. Claudio Ribeiro
UFC lightweight bout: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Loik Radzhabov
UFC bantamweight bout: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios