UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley
The UFC heads to Atlanta, Georgia next weekend for a Fight Night event. This is set to be the first event in Atlanta since April 2019.
UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley features a major welterweight headliner, and underneath that fight, the card looks pretty solid.
Overall, there seems to be plenty to look forward to with this show, so it should be worth watching.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley.
#1. UFC welterweight bout: Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley
This is one of those fights that seems to be flying under the radar, but is actually a fantastic and really intriguing pairing.
On one hand, you have Kamaru Usman. The former welterweight champ, 'The Nigerian Nightmare' dominated the 170-pound division for the best part of four years, putting together the best run since Georges St-Pierre in his heyday.
After five successful defenses, though, Usman was dethroned by Leon Edwards, who knocked him out with that head kick. Since then, he's not won a fight.
That's not to say he's been on a bad streak, per say - he just hasn't fought a lot at all. A rematch with Edwards in March 2023 saw him narrowly edged out, and while he put up a good fight in an odd middleweight bout with Khamzat Chimaev that October, he still lost.
Since then, even though he hasn't had any well-publicised injuries, Usman has not fought. At the age of 38, then, quite what he has left in the tank is anyone's guess.
Meanwhile, Joaquin Buckley will clearly be hoping that he can knock off yet another seasoned veteran on his way to the top of the welterweight division.
Early in his UFC career, 'New Mansa' seemed destined to be known for nothing but his now-legendary spinning heel kick knockout of Impa Kasanganay in 2020. To say his middleweight career was, well, middling would be an understatement.
However, since moving to welterweight in 2023, Buckley has been unstoppable. He's reeled off six straight wins, and most recently destroyed veterans Stephen Thompson and Colby Covington.
Naturally, it's the Covington fight that is probably best to look at when considering this bout. 'Chaos' was always a very similar fighter to Usman, after all, and like 'The Nigerian Nightmare', was once an unstoppable wrestler.
Although, Buckey was unable to land seven of his eight takedown attempts, and while he started off well on the feet by using his jab, once 'New Mansa' adjusted, the fight was basically over. Buckley essentially picked him off, landing some big shots and excellent combinations en route to a doctor's stoppage win.
So can he repeat the feat against Usman? In all honesty, were Usman at his best, it's doubtful as it's hard to see how Buckley would've kept him from grabbing and overpowering him.
Based on what we saw from Buckley against Covington, though - with excellent takedown defense - that might not be the case here.
Usman is pushing 40 and is likely to come into this fight looking rusty, as he hasn't fought since that Chimaev bout in 2023. Unless he can overpower Buckley early, then, the chances are that the 31-year-old will grow in confidence, and this one could quickly end up looking like the Covington fight.
Unfortunately for fans of Usman, father time is likely to get involved here, ensuring that Buckley comes out on top.
The Pick: Buckley via fourth round TKO
#2. UFC flyweight bout: Rose Namajunas vs. Miranda Maverick
Next weekend's co-headliner will see the return of former strawweight champ Rose Namajunas, albeit still in her new flyweight guise.
'Thug Rose' will face off with Miranda Maverick, the No.11-ranked fighter in the division. Maverick is riding a four-fight win streak, and is overall 8-3 in the octagon. So can she defeat a former titleholder?
At her best, Namajunas is a very dangerous fighter. Initially renowned for her slick grappling during her run on TUF 20, she routinely had issues with her strength and power, primarily in the clinch.
Once she fixed that, though, and really worked on her striking, she became incredibly dangerous. A classic example of a fighter who was able to let her strikes go because she never really feared the takedown, Namajunas won the strawweight title twice. She defeated the likes of Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Jessica Andrade, and is responsible for the only two defeats of Weili Zhang's UFC career.
Unfortunately, Namajunas has often been difficult to predict, particularly in more recent years. Her title loss to Carla Esparza in 2022 was bizarre, as she basically decided for whatever reason not to fight.
However, since moving to 125 pounds, she's looked solid if not world-beating. Her losses to Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot were both relatively close fights, but suggested she might not have the size and power to make it to the top of the division.
Can she beat Maverick, though? Maverick has proven herself to be a tricky customer throughout her octagon run. Known more for her grappling than anything else, she's also shown solid striking at times.
Unfortunately, she's also lacked the finishing ability needed to break out as a potential star, with just two of her wins coming via stoppage.
Overall, the closest comparison to this fight might be Namajunas' 2024 win over Tracy Cortez, a similar grappling-centric fighter. That fight saw Namajunas dominate Cortez standing and even get the better of her on the ground.
Given Cortez was a highly-touted prospect coming into the bout, it suggests that Namajunas still has what it takes to beat the majority of fighters even in this division. Therefore, it feels unlikely that Maverick will be able to crack the code here.
The Pick: Namajunas via decision
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a middleweight bout, Edmen Shahbazyan takes on Andre Petroski. Shahbazyan returned to action in February and looked excellent in a win over Dylan Budka, and at the age of 27, still has a chance to make something of himself at 185 pounds.
Petroski promises to be a trickier foe, though. An expert grappler, Petroski is an impressive 7-2 in the octagon, with one of those losses being a bit of a fluke against Jacob Malkoun.
This should come down to whether Shahbazyan can channel Michel Pereira and waylay Petroski with strikes before the latter can get him down. Shahbazyan doesn't have horrible grappling by any means, but Petroski is definitely capable of stifling him on the mat.
Unfortunately for 'The Golden Boy', Petroski is a pretty solid striker too, and his average of over three takedowns per fight is pretty impressive. This one should be a close call, but the pick is Petroski via decision.
In a bantamweight clash, former champ Cody Garbrandt is back to take on Raoni Barcelos. This will be Garbrandt's first fight since he lost to Deiveson Figueiredo last April, a loss that derailed a comeback run.
Prior to that, 'No Love' had won two fights in a row, and looked the best he'd done in years. However, he's still chinny, and that makes him very hard to trust in any fight.
Barcelos, meanwhile, is coming into this fight after spoiling the run of prospect Payton Talbott in January. A big 135 pounder, his 8-4 record has seen him face a number of tough opponents.
Garbrandt should have a speed advantage here, and that might prove to be the edge. Barcelos is a very dangerous opponent who's more than capable of dispatching Garbrandt, but despite eight KOs on his record, he isn't a concussive puncher.
With that in mind, the pick - tentatively - is Garbrandt via KO.
In a middleweight bout, Mansur Abdul-Malik takes on Cody Brundage. This is quite a quick turnaround for Brundage, who last fought in March, knocking out Julian Marquez in an impressive showing.
Abdul-Malik, though, looks like a very dangerous prospect. A wildly explosive striker, he's 2-0 in the octagon and 8-0 overall with seven knockouts to his name.
Brundage has shown issues with heavy hitters before, so this one could be a good fight for Abdul-Malik, who does appear to have potential. It's a risky pick because he's still an unknown quantity of sorts, but the pick is Abdul-Malik via KO.
Finally, Alonzo Menifield faces Oumar Sy in a light-heavyweight bout. This is a re-booking of a fight cancelled in March due to an injury, a rare example of such a thing in the UFC.
Everyone knows the deal with Menifield at this point. 'Atomic' is a thunderous puncher, but if he can't land early, he tends to run out of steam, and he's also slightly chinny in his own right.
So can Sy capitalise on that? The Frenchman is unbeaten at 11-0 and has two wins in the octagon. He's also pretty well-rounded from what he's shown thus far, as he displayed good grappling chops against George Tokkos in his octagon debut.
Given Menifield's one-dimensional nature, it's honestly hard to trust him even if he's massively dangerous in that one dimension. Realistically, though, he has struggled against his better foes and Sy has shown potential. The pick, then, is Sy via decision.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC light-heavyweight bout: Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato
UFC welterweight bout: Michael Chiesa vs. Court McGee
UFC flyweight bout: Cody Durden vs. Jose Ochoa
UFC bantamweight bout: Ricky Simon vs. Charles Jourdain
UFC welterweight bout: Philip Rowe vs. Ange Loosa
UFC flyweight bout: Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth
UFC bantamweight bout: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Kris Moutinho