UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez
This weekend sees the UFC present another event from their Apex in Las Vegas. UFC Fight Night: Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez will go down on October 9.
The event will feature a battle of top strawweight contenders in the main event, as well as a number of solid fights on the undercard.
Strawweight contenders step into the main event spotlight this Saturday 🤩
[ #UFCVegas39 | Oct 9 | LIVE on @ESPNPlus ] https://t.co/cWeGGF76CB
With that considered, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez.
#1. UFC strawweight division: Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez
Current UFC strawweight champ Rose Namajunas is set to defend her title against former champ Weili Zhang in a rematch in November. Since the rematch was announced, many have suggested that the UFC isn't keen on giving Carla Esparza a title shot. With that in mind, there's a lot at stake in this weekend's main event.
With Mackenzie Dern currently ranked at No.4 and Marina Rodriguez at No.6, there’s every chance that an impressive performance from either woman here could net them a title shot in 2022. So, which fighter is more likely to pull out the win? On the face of it, this is a classic match of grappler vs. striker. Dern is arguably the most credentialed grappler in the UFC right now, while Rodriguez is a talented kickboxer with six knockout wins to her name.
It’d be easy to claim that both fighters are so much more than that, but the truth is that would be a stretch of sorts. Dern does have some striking skills to speak of. She’s certainly got power, as we saw when she decked Amanda Cooper in their fight in 2018. Also, her clash with Virna Jandiroba in late 2020 saw her display some major improvements standing.
However, she’s still lacking the technique needed to compete with someone like Rodriguez on the feet. That's because she’s largely a boxing-heavy striker going up against a far more rounded opponent.
On the ground, though, Dern is genuinely deadly. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who has won countless grappling titles over the years, her submission game now seems to have adjusted perfectly to the octagon. In recent fights, we’ve seen her submit Nina Nunes, Randa Markos and Hannah Cifers with nasty holds. It’s not like any of the three are neophytes on the ground either.
MACKENZIE DERN GETS IT DONE IN BRAZIL 🇧🇷 #UFC224 https://t.co/fj3JJrUyjA
Rodriguez, on the other hand, has had major issues on the ground in the UFC, even in fights she’s won. Her draw with Cynthia Calvillo saw her lose one round badly on the ground despite dominating her opponent on the feet. Naturally, Esparza completely outgrappled her when the fight hit the mat.
Worryingly for Rodriguez, Dern has a far more venomous ground game than either woman and is far more likely to go for a submission to put her away than the other opponents she’s faced in the octagon thus far. Also, judging by the beating she absorbed at the hands of Amanda Ribas in 2019, Dern is likely tough enough to withstand anything that Rodriguez is likely to throw at her.
With that in mind, the pick is Dern. The fight is likely to hit the ground at least once across the five rounds. When it does, it feels likely that Dern will end things.
The Pick: Dern via third round submission
Here are the Latest UFC Predictions by Sportskeeda