UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker 2
The MMA leader finally begins its 2024 this weekend with a UFC Fight Night event from the Las Vegas Apex. While it isn’t a deep card, it’s still welcome after a few weeks with no action.
UFC Fight Night: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker 2 features a light heavyweight rematch as its headliner, with a fine mix of veterans and prospects elsewhere on the card.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker 2.
#1. UFC light heavyweight bout: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker 2
This light heavyweight bout is a rematch of the clash that took place at UFC 294 in October. It was that event’s only disappointing fight.
Most fans expected a fun and potentially wild clash between former title challenger Magomed Ankalaev and the resurgent Johnny Walker, but were instead left frustrated when Ankalaev smashed Walker with an illegal knee after just three minutes.
Walker seemed to recover quickly, only to be told by the cageside doctor that he was unable to continue. Unsurprisingly, nobody was happy with the No Contest that ensued.
That means there’s some mild bad blood coming into this rematch, although to be fair, the doctor more than Ankalaev or Walker was to blame.
So who will take this do-over? Firstly, it’s hard to take a lot from what happened in that first bout. It looked like Ankalaev was probably in charge of things, as he landed some early shots that appeared to have the Brazilian on the back foot before taking him down. The end came shortly after that.
Walker’s best bet in this fight is probably to make it as wild and crazy as possible. He seemed to have calmed his style somewhat recently, leading to his wins over Ion Cutelaba, Paul Craig, and Anthony Smith.
However, the truth is that if he tries to fight in a regular style against Ankalaev, he’s likely to lose. The Dagestani is a far superior grappler, has probably the best takedowns in the division, and more to the point, he also hits like a truck and has a rock-hard chin.
Ankalaev has been criticized in the past for a slightly dull style, as he does have a tendency to grind his foes down. However, that isn’t a weakness per say, and realistically, there’s an argument that he’s actually the best 205lber on the roster right now.
Some believed he deserved the nod in his controversial 2022 title bout with Jan Blachowicz, which was eventually declared a draw, and the fact that he didn’t get another shot is still a bit galling.
Will he earn another crack, this time at Alex Pereira, if he can win here? That probably depends on whether he can unleash some violence on Walker, who is definitely not going to back down or look to make the fight slow or boring.
With everything considered, then, it’s likely that Walker will take the fight to Ankalaev early on, only to leave himself wide open. Eventually, the Dagestani is going to capitalize on one of those openings, and will probably dispatch the Brazilian there.
The Pick: Ankalaev via second-round TKO
#2. UFC flyweight bout: Matheus Nicolau vs. Manel Kape 2
With current titleholder Alexandre Pantoja looking for a new contender after he dispatched Brandon Royval last year, this fight could prove to be a pivotal one.
Both men are rated highly, with Matheus Nicolau currently ranked at No.5 in the division, and Manel Kape sitting one spot below him at No.6.
More interestingly, though, this fight is a rematch of a 2021 thriller that saw Nicolau edge a split decision. That fight could’ve gone either way, with the Brazilian taking the win after sweeping the first round on the ground and just about edging the third despite taking plenty of damage.
Since then, though, Nicolau has seen a six-fight win streak snapped by Royval, who knocked him out last April. Kape, on the other hand, has recovered to beat four straight opponents.
In fact, if he’d won their initial clash, ‘Starboy’ would’ve beaten every opponent he’d faced in the UFC outside of Pantoja, who also edged him via decision.
Based on their first bout, the gameplan of both men should be pretty easy to predict. Kape will clearly want to keep the fight standing and look to finish Nicolau this time, while the Brazilian will want to take ‘Starboy’ down and keep him there.
The question, then, is which man is more capable of carrying out that gameplan than the other? It’s clear that the UFC would probably prefer Kape to win. The Angolan-born Portuguese contender was set for a clash with former champ Deiveson Figueiredo last year, and would almost certainly have been given a title shot had he won.
With a gap at the top of the division, then, ‘Starboy’ could leapfrog No.2-ranked Amir Albazi if he wins here.
Given that Kape was able to survive on the ground last time out, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be able to here. More to the point, with Nicolau coming off a knockout loss in his last bout, his chin may now be cracked, and he may also be gunshy, whereas he was more willing to trade last time out.
Overall this one could probably go either way, and it’s likely that it’ll be just as close as their first bout. However, based on what’s happened since then, it feels more likely that Kape will edge this one. The pick is ‘Starboy’ via decision.
The Pick: Kape via decision
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a lightweight clash, Jim Miller takes on Gabriel Benitez. Quite how Miller is still ticking along after 15 years of action in the octagon is anyone’s guess, but remarkably, he’s won four of his last five fights. He even scored one of the quickest KOs of 2023 in his last fight with Jesse Butler.
Can he beat Benitez, then? ‘Moggly’ has been around for nearly a decade in his own right, and while he hasn’t reached the same heights as Miller, he’s always been a pretty solid fighter.
The issue here, unfortunately for the Mexican, is that while he’s younger and fresher than his foe, he’s not really better than Miller in any single area. He’s also been knocked out three times in his last six bouts, suggesting he has a questionable chin.
Overall, Miller remains tricky to finish, and it’s hard to see Benitez grinding him down. Therefore, the pick is Miller via TKO.
In a bantamweight tilt, Ricky Simon faces Mario Bautista. Still inside the top fifteen at 135 pounds, Simon will be hoping to bounce back from his loss to Song Yadong here, a defeat that snapped a five-fight win streak.
Bautista is riding a lengthy win streak of his own, going unbeaten across five fights since early 2021. He’s also a dangerous finisher, having dispatched four of his foes in the octagon.
The issue he’s likely to have here is with Simon’s takedowns and strength. Simon is a large 135lber with powerful wrestling skills, and he’s also no novice on the ground, making a sudden submission unlikely.
Simon is likely to win this fight, and the big question is whether Bautista is tough enough to last the distance. Given his overall solid skills, the pick is Simon via decision.
Finally, Phil Hawes faces Brunno Ferreira in a middleweight bout. Hawes has long been seen as one of the best prospects at 185 pounds, but after suffering three KO losses in his last four bouts, the bloom may be off his rose now. In fact, ‘No Hype’ probably needs to win this fight to stay afloat in the UFC.
Ferreira, on the other hand, suffered a bad loss of his own in his last fight, also by KO. That makes this one intriguing, as a knockout seems likely given the weaker chins of both men.
However, Hawes does have a powerful wrestling game to fall back on, and if he can ground Ferreira and work some heavy strikes from the top, the fight should be his. The pick, therefore, is Hawes via TKO.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC heavyweight bout: Andrei Arlovski vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
UFC welterweight bout: Matthew Semelsberger vs. Preston Parsons
UFC bantamweight bout: Marcus McGhee vs. Gaston Bolanos
UFC bantamweight bout: Farid Basharat vs. Taylor Lapilus
UFC featherweight bout: Westin Wilson vs. Jean Silva
UFC lightweight bout: Tom Nolan vs. Nikolas Motta
UFC flyweight bout: Joshua Van vs. Felipe Bunes