UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos
The UFC returns to its Las Vegas Apex for another Fight Night event this weekend. While it’s likely to fly under the radar, it could produce some solid action.
UFC Fight Night: Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos features some strong fights in the strawweight, welterweight and flyweight divisions, with a number of talented fighters in action.
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Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos.
#1. UFC strawweight bout: Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos
Initially, this weekend’s main event would’ve seen surging featherweight contenders Bryce Mitchell and Movsar Evloev face off. However, with Evloev sidelined due to injury, it looks like we’ll have to wait a while for that one.
Instead, the UFC has pegged two high-level strawweights in Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos to headline this card. While it’s lacking in name value, it should provide some interesting action nonetheless.
Of the two women, it’s arguable that Rodriguez is probably closer to a shot at strawweight gold in the octagon. The Brazilian has lost just once since arriving in the promotion back in 2018 and that defeat came at the hands of current champion Carla Esparza.
More to the point, that defeat came via split decision and many fans felt that Rodriguez deserved the nod. Had she won that bout, then who knows what the title picture of the division would look like now?
30-27 Esparza?
Here's the Global Scorecard data for Carla Esparza vs. Marina Rodriguez.
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Lemos, on the other hand, is coming off a win over Michelle Waterson and is 6-1 overall at 115lbs. Her only defeat came at the hands of Jessica Andrade, who submitted her with a standing arm-triangle choke back in April.
How do these women match up? Overall, it’s hard to deny that Lemos has more finishing power, as she’s only gone the distance on two occasions in the octagon and has finished two of her foes by TKO and two via submission.
However, Rodriguez is probably the more proven fighter overall, with two of her last three wins coming in headline bouts over Waterson and Mackenzie Dern. It’s also likely that she’ll enjoy a slight technical advantage over her opponent here, as she tends to fight behind a jab and sets up her combinations well, while Lemos is more likely to wing power shots at her opponent, blowing energy in the process.
It’s true that Rodriguez did have some trouble dealing with her last opponent, Yan Xiaonan, but equally, Yan possesses a tricky striking style that’s hard to get a handle on, and Rodriguez did pull through with a really strong final round.
Overall, this one could probably go either way, but based on her prior experience in headline bouts, as well as her technical prowess, the pick is Rodriguez via decision.
The Pick: Rodriguez via decision
#2. UFC welterweight bout: Neil Magny vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Despite the fact that he’s coming off a loss to red-hot prospect Shavkat Rakhmonov, it’s probably fair to say that Neil Magny remains the welterweight division’s consummate gatekeeper. Sure, he’s never likely to get a title shot, but he’s very used to turning back highly-touted fighters, including Max Griffin and Geoff Neal in recent bouts.
So can he turn back the challenge of Daniel Rodriguez? It’s hard to say, given ‘D-Rod’ has been on a tremendous run as of late, most recently edging out Li Jingliang just over a month ago at UFC 279.
Rodriguez actually has a pretty underrated octagon record overall. A part of the promotion’s roster since February 2020, he’s won seven of his eight appearances there, with his only loss coming in a tight decision against tricky striker Nicolas Dalby.
Right now, he’s on a four-fight win streak, but it's worth noting that his two best wins – over Li and Kevin Lee – came against smaller opponents. In fact, his victory over Li was largely enabled by the fact that ‘The Leech’ ran out of gas, perhaps because he was faced with a Rodriguez who weighed in for a bout 10 pounds heavier.
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It’s highly unlikely that ‘D-Rod’ will be able to bully Magny around. ‘The Haitian Sensation’ isn’t the biggest 170lber, but he’ll enjoy a sizeable height and reach advantage over Rodriguez, as his reach of 80” is practically unheard of in this division.
More importantly, Magny knows how to use that reach to his advantage. Not only is he excellent at sitting behind a jab to keep his opponent at bay, but he’s also great at snatching up chokes on the ground if a fight goes there, too.
Essentially, ‘The Haitian Sensation’ has only one real weakness, and that’s when he comes up against a true expert in one area, whether that’s on the feet or on the ground. If he tends to come up against a fellow all-rounder, he usually wins.
Given Rodriguez is the very definition of an all-rounder, and doesn’t truly shine in any area, it’s unlikely that he’ll see success here, particularly given how recently he fought. With that in mind, Magny is the clear pick.
The Pick: Magny via decision
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a flyweight bout, Tagir Ulanbekov faces Nate Maness. Ulanbekov was, at one point, considered the hottest prospect in the 125lbs division, but he ran into Tim Elliott in his last fight and found himself outworked by a very tricky and experienced foe.
Thankfully, he should match up much better with Maness. Not only is ‘Mayhem’ making the cut to 125lbs for the first time, but Ulanbekov is a similar fighter to the last man to beat him – Umar Nurmagomedov – thanks to his powerful takedowns, crushing top game and dangerous submissions.
Given the questions around Maness at 125lbs, the pick is Ulanbekov via decision.
In a heavyweight clash, Chase Sherman takes on Josh Parisian. The UFC seems to have a big tendency to put a potentially sloppy heavyweight clash on the main card of these Fight Night events, and this is a perfect example.
Given both men have shown little else but heavy hands in their octagon careers, this is a tough fight to pick. Parisian seems to be slightly more durable than Sherman and should be the slightly bigger man too, so the pick is Parisian via TKO.
At lightweight, Mark Madsen takes on Grant Dawson in a fascinating clash. There’s no disputing that Madsen, a former Danish Olympian, will have the wrestling advantage here, but can he make it work against a fighter who is remarkably dangerous in all areas? It’s debatable.
The big question here, of course, is how ‘KGD’ will do against Madsen’s takedowns. If he can’t fend them off, then he could be in trouble. With that said, Madsen has struggled against his better opponents thus far, and does tend to get tired – something that could be music to Dawson’s ears. It’ll be tricky, but the pick is Dawson via submission.
Finally, in a catchweight (220lbs) fight, hot prospect Jailton Almeida faces Maxim Grishin. Grishin is the more experienced fighter here, with a career dating way back to 2008, but that might be the only advantage he has.
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From what he’s shown thus far, Almeida is an utter monster, with dangerous finishing abilities in all areas and a massive amount of explosive power. While he’ll be making a step up here, it’s hard to imagine ‘Malhadinho’ being derailed. The pick is Almeida via submission.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC featherweight bout: Darrick Minner vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
UFC strawweight bout: Polyana Viana vs. Jinh Yu Frey
UFC bantamweight bout: Tamires Vidal vs. Ramona Pascual
UFC bantamweight bout: Benito Lopez vs. Mario Bautista
UFC bantamweight bout: Johnny Munoz Jr vs. Liudvik Sholinian
UFC flyweight bout: Miranda Maverick vs. Shanna Young
UFC flyweight bout: Jake Hadley vs. Carlos Candelario