UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. Dominick Cruz
This weekend sees the UFC head to San Diego, California for its latest Fight Night show. In the headline bout, two of the world’s top bantamweights are set to face off.
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UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. Dominick Cruz isn’t all that heavy on name value outside of the main event, but it should hopefully be a watchable show nonetheless.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. Dominick Cruz.
#1. UFC bantamweight division: Marlon Vera vs. Dominick Cruz
The UFC’s bantamweight division is one of the most stacked that the promotion has to offer right now, and that means that plenty of fantastic fights can be put together at 135lbs. This is undoubtedly one of them, pitting a former champion in Dominick Cruz against one of the division’s hottest rising contenders in Marlon Vera.
Cruz appears to have become the forgotten man of the UFC bantamweight division in a lot of ways, and to tell the truth, it’s understandable to a degree. ‘The Dominator’ was once considered the greatest bantamweight on the planet, having returned from years on the shelf to dethrone T.J. Dillashaw in early 2016, reclaiming the title he never lost in the octagon in the process.
However, he then lost the title to Cody Garbrandt later that year, and following that, the injury bug struck again. Numerous issues kept ‘The Dominator’ on the shelf all the way into 2020, when he returned to an unexpected title shot against then-champ Henry Cejudo.
Cruz lost that bout via TKO, but he’s since won two fights in a row. While he’s only ranked at No.8 right now and is probably approaching the end of his athletic prime at the age of 36, the fact is that he’s still a hugely skilled, wily veteran and he’s never lost a non-title bout during his octagon career.
This fight, though, promises to be very tricky for him. Right now, ‘Chito’ Vera is arguably the hottest fighter in the promotion at 135lbs, as he’s riding a three-fight win streak and most recently outclassed the highly rated Rob Font.
What makes the native of Ecuador so dangerous is the fact that he’s got highly explosive skills in all areas, and he’s also a lethal finisher, with just four of his career 19 wins going the distance.
Chito Vera knocked out Frankie Edgar in the third round at #UFC268 https://t.co/sLhuEiad6O
Most recently, Vera’s striking has improved dramatically from a technical standpoint, as he no longer swings wildly with low-percentage shots as he once did. These days, he mixes up jabs, low kicks and heavy shots brilliantly, and the fact that he destroyed Font on the feet was a real eye-opener.
Where he may struggle against Cruz, assuming ‘The Dominator’ is at his best, is the fact that he’s worryingly willing to eat strikes in order to land harder ones back. In his fight with Font, for instance, he was actually outlanded despite doing far more damage than his opponent.
Given that Cruz was once a master at landing strikes without getting hit in the process, if Vera can’t find a way to catch him with something nasty, then he could well end up losing rounds and come out on the wrong side of a decision.
With that said, though, ‘The Dominator’ also ate plenty of shots in his most recent bout with Pedro Munhoz at UFC 269, and ‘The Young Punisher’ isn’t close to being the same level of finisher that ‘Chito’ is.
Given that Vera’s cardio is also excellent, there’s every chance that he catches Cruz with something nasty at some point during the five rounds, particularly as Cruz is getting no younger and isn’t as durable as he once was.
It’s a risky call, but with that in mind, the pick is Vera via TKO.
The Pick: Vera via third-round TKO
#2. UFC catchweight bout: Angela Hill vs. Lupita Godinez
This weekend’s co-headliner is a strange one. Usually, both Angela Hill and Lupita Godinez fight at 115lbs, but due to this bout being moved onto the card at short notice, they will be facing off at 120lbs instead.
Hopefully, the slight change in weight shouldn’t affect the quality of the fight. It’s an interesting one that pits a real veteran in Hill against an up-and-comer in Godinez, and it’s fair to say that if ‘Loopy’ can win, she’ll have pulled off the biggest win of her career.
The Mexican-Canadian debuted in the octagon in April 2021, losing a controversial decision to Jessica Penne. She quickly bounced back with an armbar win over Silvana Juarez, claiming a $50k bonus in the process.
First UFC victory, & first career submission all in one for @LoopyGodinez 🇲🇽 🇨🇦
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From there, ‘Loopy’ took a huge risk, and took a second fight at a higher weight class just seven days later – breaking a UFC record in the process – only to fall to Luana Carolina. Since then, though, she’s bounced back with two straight wins at her regular weight of 115lbs.
Overall, Godinez’s grappling appears to be her strongest area, but she’s also a willing striker too, even if she doesn’t appear to pack that much power. Unsurprisingly, six of her eight career wins have come via decision.
Hill, on the other hand, has now been in the promotion for almost a decade after debuting there following a stint on TUF 20. Initially, ‘Overkill’ struggled due to her one-dimensional nature, and found herself cut from her contract.
After rounding her game out somewhat, though, she claimed gold in Invicta FC, returned to the UFC octagon, and was able to pick up strong wins over the likes of Maryna Moroz and Jodie Esquibel. ‘Overkill’ still prefers to stand and bang, but she’s no longer as vulnerable on the ground as she once was.
How will this fight go? Based on the low finishing percentage of both women, it seems likely to go the distance. Given that Hill is 37 years old and hasn’t actually won a bout since March 2021 – losing her last three in a row – it might be fair to suspect that she’s past her prime.
With that considered, the pick is Godinez.
The Pick: Godinez via decision
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a featherweight bout, Nate Landwehr faces David Onama. This one should be quite interesting. Landwehr hasn’t quite lived up to the hype that he arrived in the UFC with, but he’s still a hard-nosed brawler who is capable of finishing foes both standing and on the ground.
Onama doesn’t quite have the UFC experience of ‘The Train’, but he is a dangerous finisher who’s never gone the distance in any of his 10 wins, and he’s only suffered one career loss, falling to the underrated Mason Jones.
@DavidOnama145 KO's Gabriel Benitez! #UFCVegas48DAVID ONAMA SLEEPS HIM!! 😳
🇺🇬@DavidOnama145 KO's Gabriel Benitez! #UFCVegas48 https://t.co/hQYzCdqWDR
This one is tough to pick and it seems unlikely to go the distance, but based purely on the fact that he seems more explosive, the pick is Onama via TKO.
In the UFC light heavyweight division, Devin Clark takes on Azamat Murzakanov. Both of these men are coming off big TKO wins, Clark turning the lights out on William Knight and Murzakanov defeating Tafon Nchukwi in his octagon debut.
Clark has far more experience than his Russian opponent, having fought on 13 occasions in the octagon, but he hasn’t really beaten anyone that great during that time either and has suffered a number of heavy losses. Given that Murzakanov is younger, has dangerous finishing skills and is still unbeaten, then, the pick is the Russian via TKO.
In a flyweight clash, Cynthia Calvillo faces Nina Nunes. The wife of current bantamweight champ Amanda, Nunes has lost her last two bouts, but prior to that was on a hell of a run, with her peak coming in a win over former title challenger Claudia Gadelha.
At her best, she’s an excellent striker with a great grasp of range, and she also has strong takedown defense. She lacks real striking power, but she’s definitely capable of outpointing her foes.
Calvillo has shown flashes of excellence at times – she’s one of the division’s better grapplers – but it’s hard to see how she wins this one. It’s likely she’ll be outgunned standing, and it’s hard to imagine her taking Nunes down that easily. Therefore, the pick is Nunes via decision.
Finally, a middleweight bout sees Bruno Silva square off with Gerald Meerschaert. This one should be fun as both men are very dangerous finishers. In fact, Meerschaert has one of the better finishing rates in the UFC, having never gone the distance in any of his octagon victories.
Worryingly for ‘GM3’, though, he’s also not the most durable fighter, having suffered three TKO losses, as well as eight submissions. Silva, on the other hand, is a powerful, explosive athlete who hits very hard – and judging by his fights with Alex Pereira and Andrew Sanchez, he’s also durable.
WHAT A COMEBACK FOR BRUNO SILVA 💥
[ #UFCVegas40 | Prelims LIVE on @ESPNPlus ] https://t.co/GlR4TlL5EE
With that considered, the pick is ‘Blindado’ via TKO.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
Women's strawweight division: Yazmin Jauregui vs. Iasmin Lucindo
Heavyweight division: Martin Buday vs. Lukasz Brzeski
Lightweight division: Gabriel Benitez vs. Charlie Ontiveros
Bantamweight division: Youssef Zalal vs. Da’Mon Blackshear
Flyweight division: Ode' Osbourne vs. Tyson Nam
Welterweight division: Jason Witt vs. Josh Quinlan
Women's bantamweight division: Ariane Lipski vs. Priscila Cachoeira