UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates
The UFC returns to the Las Vegas Apex next weekend for the only time in November. Thankfully, the promotion is set to present a solid card.
UFC Fight Night: Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates features an excellent welterweight headliner and some intriguing bouts in other divisions.
So, with plenty of fighters looking to make their mark, this event should be worth watching.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates.
#1. UFC welterweight bout: Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates
The storyline coming into this welterweight headliner couldn't be simpler, and that's arguably why it's one of the best fights of November on paper.
Essentially, this is the first big test for a fighter who looks like one of the UFC's best up-and-comers. That test comes in the form of the welterweight division's ultimate gatekeeper.
In essence, either the prospect will smash his way into contention, or the gatekeeper will send another hopeful crashing back down the ladder.
The prospect in question is Carlos Prates. Currently riding a ten-fight win streak, 'The Nightmare' has not lost a bout since 2019.
The Brazilian debuted in the octagon in February, basically as an unknown. It didn't take him long to make an impact, though, as he violently stopped Trevin Giles via KO and then, four months later, returned to knock out Charles Radtke.
It was his third win, though - a brutal finish of respected veteran Li Jingliang - that opened everyone's eyes. Sure, he took some shots from the Chinese fighter, but in the end, he left him discombobulated, becoming the first man to finish 'The Leech' with strikes.
So can Neil Magny - the toughest gatekeeper at 170 pounds - stem his rise this weekend?
'The Haitian Sensation' has been around for more than a decade now, and while he's not a title contender, he's a very skilled fighter.
Capable of competing both standing and on the ground, Magny is a classic jack of all trades. While he has few weaknesses, he is vulnerable to fighters who tend to specialize in one single area, largely because he doesn't shine like that.
At his best, Magny is comfortable in fighting behind his jab, using his 6ft 3in lanky frame, and he loves to take his foes down and wear them out on the ground.
He's also very used to stopping the ride of prospects, and in his most recent win, he took out the surging Mike Malott.
However, it's very hard to shake the image of 'The Haitian Sensation' being largely blown away by a more dynamic, hard-hitting striker in Michael Morales as recently as August.
More to the point, it wasn't the first time that Magny was beaten down by a heavy-hitting, faster striker, with memories of his loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio still lingering.
Basically, then, this depends on how high the ceiling lies for Prates. If he's got designs on going into title contention, he should be able to win.
Expect a competitive fight, but realistically, Magny isn't that much better than Li. More to the point, unlike Malott and Phil Rowe, who also lost to 'The Haitian Sensation', Prates has already proved he can handle a more experienced, dangerous foe.
With that in mind, then, another violent finish for 'The Nightmare' could be on the cards here.
The Pick: Prates via second-round KO
#2. UFC bantamweight bout: Cody Garbrandt vs. Miles Johns
Once responsible for one of the best calendar years in UFC history when he capped off his 2021 by winning bantamweight gold, it hasn't been plain sailing for Cody Garbrandt in recent years.
After suffering a terrible run of five losses in six bouts, 'No Love' looked to have rebounded a little in 2023, beating Trevin Giles and Brian Kelleher.
However, most recently, he fell at the hands of Deiveson Figueiredo, losing via second-round submission.
While he isn't quite as good as he once was, Garbrandt is still a very dangerous striker who carries knockout power. The issue is more that everyone knows now that he's very beatable if he's drawn into a brawl.
Whether Miles Johns can beat him though is a very fair question.
'Chapo' has been around the promotion now for a lengthy period, dating back to a 2019 debut. While he's largely flown under the radar, he does actually have just two losses to his name, and is currently riding a four-fight unbeaten streak.
More to the point, Johns did deliver the kind of performance that might suggest he's got enough to beat the former champ in his last fight. He engaged in a firefight with Douglas Silva de Andrade and outgunned 'D'Silva' across three rounds with superior speed and combinations.
The worry for him, though, is that he doesn't appear to carry heavy power in his hands, having not knocked anyone out since 2021. Garbrandt is chinny, but it does tend to take a few heavy blows at least to put him out.
Johns, meanwhile, takes risks and tends to get hit in his fights, and that might be a big error with an opponent with the power of 'No Love'.
It's likely that this one will be an exciting fight, as neither man is likely to give any quarter, and they're viable to go at it from the start. However, based on his experience and punching power, we should expect Garbrandt to come out on top.
The Pick: Garbrandt via second-round KO
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a strawweight fight, one-time title challenger Karolina Kowalkiewicz faces Denise Gomes.
A few years ago, it looked like Kowalkiewicz's career was over when she hit a five-fight skid. However, she rebounded by winning four in a row, only to be derailed by Iasmin Lucindo earlier this year.
Overall, the Polish fighter is a solid jack-of-all-trades, and for the most part, she's only lost to high-level foes. However, her defeat to Lucindo showed that she struggles with dynamic opponents, and Gomes is definitely dynamic and aggressive.
Sure, she's suffered a couple of pretty poor losses, too, but being the younger fighter, if she pushes the pace here, it's likely that she could make Kowalkiewicz wilt. The pick, therefore, is Gomes via decision.
At bantamweight, Ricky Turcios takes on Bernardo Sopaj. This will be Sopaj's second octagon fight following his debut loss to Vinicius Oliveira, a fight that didn't see him offer much.
Turcios, meanwhile, has much more experience in the octagon. A strong grappler, 'Pretty Ricky' has struggled at times if he's been unable to impose his will. If he can, though, he's more than capable of beating lower-level foes.
This one is hard to pick because Sopaj is such an unknown quantity, but Turcios' experience should be the tipping point. The pick is Turcios via decision.
In an intriguing middleweight clash, Gerald Meerschaert takes on newcomer Reinier de Ridder. De Ridder is best known for an excellent run in ONE Championship that saw him lose just twice, both to the same fighter, the dangerous Anatoly Malykhin.
The Dutchman favors grappling, but has skills in all areas. The only question on him really is how good he'll fare against higher-level opponents.
Meerschaert is an interesting test for him because while he's a consummate finisher, he's also very vulnerable to attacks in all areas, with his aggression leaving him wide open.
However, it's hard to pick a debutant against a man who's beaten the likes of Edmen Shahbazyan and Makhmud Muradov. It wouldn't be a surprise to see De Ridder turn out to be the real deal and take out 'GM3', but the fact is that he hasn't proven himself yet. The pick, therefore, is Meerschaert via submission.
Finally, in the strawweight division, Luana Pinheiro takes on Gillian Robertson. The winner of this one should progress into the top ten, but it's fair to say that the momentum is not with Pinheiro.
She has lost her last two bouts, both via finish and hasn't won since April 2023. More worryingly, Robertson is maybe the best finisher in this division, living up to her nickname of 'The Savage'.
She's not the best fighter out there and is still somewhat porous defensively, but give her an opening, and the Canadian will absolutely take it.
More to the point, Pinheiro showed a tendency to leave herself open in her most recent bout with Angela Hill, suffering a tapout loss. Therefore, the pick is Robertson via submission.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC middleweight bout: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Nicolas Dalby
UFC middleweight bout: Mansur Al-Malik vs. Dusko Todorovic
UFC welterweight bout: Matthew Semelsberger vs. Charles Radtke
UFC bantamweight bout: Cody Stamann vs. Da'Mon Blackshear
UFC bantamweight bout: Melissa Mullins vs. Klaudia Sygula
UFC bantamweight bout: Gaston Bolanos vs. Cortavious Romious
UFC middleweight bout: Tresean Gore vs. Antonio Trocoli