UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori
After two weak Fight Night cards, the UFC’s offering looks much better this weekend, as the promotion presents UFC Fight Night: Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori from Las Vegas.
With a huge middleweight main event and several other intriguing fights on the card, this UFC Fight Night looks like a must-see show.
Oct 23: Costa v Vettori in Primetime
Oct 30: UFC 267 in Primetime
Nov 6: UFC 268 stacked to the gills
We're going back-to-back-to-back 🔥 https://t.co/lx96dr6uIE
With that in mind, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori.
#1. UFC middleweight division: Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori
Neither Paulo Costa nor Marvin Vettori is likely to receive a UFC middleweight title shot off the back of a win here – both men lost to current champ Israel Adesanya in their last fight. However, the victor will still get quickly back into the mix.
For Costa, this fight marks his first trip to the octagon in over a year. The last time we saw him, he was still unbeaten in the UFC and in MMA overall, and many fans were picking him to defeat Adesanya at UFC 253.
Unfortunately, ‘The Eraser’ looked completely out of his depth in his fight with the champion. Whether nerves were to blame is debatable, but Costa’s vaunted striking game was made to look plodding by Adesanya. He eventually fell to a second-round TKO.
That shouldn’t be a real issue for him against Vettori, though. Unlike Adesanya, ‘The Italian Dream’ doesn’t possess pinpoint accurate striking and preternatural movement and speed.
Instead, Vettori is very much a meat-and-potatoes fighter, albeit a really good one. Debuting back in 2016, the Italian has a surprisingly solid UFC record, with just three losses – two of them to Adesanya. More to the point, he was able to go the distance with ‘The Last Stylebender’ on both occasions.
Vettori’s main strength is the fact that he’s so adaptable wherever the fight goes. We’ve seen him use his wrestling and takedowns to defeat the likes of Jack Hermansson and Kevin Holland. His striking and clinch work are both solid too, and he’s never been stopped in 23 fights.
Unfortunately, he’s not a great finisher – he’s only got two to his name in the UFC, both via choke. This means that against a dangerous opponent, he’ll have to be perfect throughout the whole fight to win.
Costa, on the other hand, is a far more dangerous fighter overall. Essentially, ‘The Eraser’ fights a lot like a middleweight version of prime Alistair Overeem. He’ll march forward, look to bully his opponent into retreating, and then smash them with a mix of heavy strikes.
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COSTA FINISHES HALL OFF after a CRAZY back and forth exchange! Wow!!!
#UFC226 https://t.co/Xnn8A3F6i3
It’s an approach that worked tremendously for him in his first four UFC fights. It even got him close to a rare TKO win over Yoel Romero. The Cuban managed to survive Costa’s barrage in the end, but the fact that ‘The Eraser’ had him badly hurt was incredible in its own right.
However, it’d be silly to pass Costa off as a bullying striker with a questionable chin, which is how he came off against Adesanya. ‘The Eraser’ is also a genuine Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. Prior to joining the UFC, his reputation was largely that of a dangerous top-game grappler.
Overall then, there’s the chance that the loss to Adesanya has damaged Costa irreparably. If that’s the case, then Vettori could certainly gas him out and grind out a decision.
However, ‘The Eraser’ may have benefitted from his year off to recover from the Adesanya loss. There’s definitely nothing to suggest that he’s a shot fighter.
With that in mind, it’s hard not to pick him here. He’s a better striker than Vettori and may well be a better grappler too, should it come to that. Whether he can finish the Italian is another thing entirely, but it’d be hugely impressive if he could.
The Pick: Costa via fourth round TKO
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