UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili
After a major pay-per-view this past weekend, the UFC is back with a Fight Night event on Saturday that has an excellent headliner.
UFC Fight Night: Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili features a huge bantamweight main event, as well as a number of other excellent fights on tap. This event is clearly a step up from the promotion’s other recent Fight Nights, and should not be missed.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili.
#1. UFC bantamweight division: Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili
It’s arguable that the bantamweight division is the hottest weight class in the UFC right now, and so it stands to reason that this fight is one of the best we’ve been treated to in 2023 thus far.
It pits former champion Petr Yan against the No.3-ranked Merab Dvalishvili. While the winner likely won’t fight for the title next time out, it should still be fantastic.
Why won’t the winner go onto a title shot? Yan is coming off two straight losses, one to current champ Aljamain Sterling and one to top prospect Sean O’Malley, so he’d probably need at least one more win even if he picks up a victory here.
Dvalishvili, on the other hand, would probably warrant a shot at the gold with a win over ‘No Mercy’, but ‘The Machine’ is also Sterling’s primary training partner.
The two men have already suggested they won’t fight each other, so unless ‘Funk Master’ were to lose his crown to Henry Cejudo, Dvalishvili will probably be left treading water even with a victory this weekend.
Can he win, though? It’s difficult to say.
It’s worth noting that had the UFC put this fight together two years ago, the idea of Dvalishvili winning would’ve been seen as insane. At that point, Yan looked unstoppable.
‘No Mercy’ had put together a record of 15-1, with seven wins in the octagon, culminating in his title win over the legendary Jose Aldo. With incredibly heavy and fast hands, quick takedown defense and a killer instinct, most fans figured he’d rule the division for years.
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🏆 ＠PetrYanUFC stops Aldo in the fifth!
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Unfortunately for the Russian, he then lost his title to Sterling via disqualification. After claiming an interim title by beating Cory Sandhagen, he fell to ‘Funk Master’ in a rematch.
Yan didn’t fight badly against Sterling the second time, and still took him to a split decision. The fact that he was dominated on the ground in the early going, though, clearly counted against him heavily.
It’s probably fair to ignore Yan’s loss to O’Malley when looking at this fight, because that was primarily a striking battle. Dvalishvili, on the other hand, is almost a pure grappler in his approach.
Worryingly for Yan, then, it was Sterling’s ability to take him down and control him that led to his loss in their second bout. Given that Dvalishvili is one of the best takedown artists in the game, he’ll be hopeful of doing the same thing.
The issue for him here, though, is the fact that he doesn’t quite possess the striking game of Sterling. ‘Funk Master’ isn’t necessarily a top kickboxer, but he knows how to use his kicking ability to keep distance, and he’s also defensively sound.
‘The Machine’, on the other hand, has been hit heavily on a number of occasions before, most notably coming close to being stopped by Marlon Moraes in 2021.
The Georgian has shown himself to be remarkably durable, though, and that could bode well here. If he can absorb Yan’s combinations and pin him into the fence to secure takedowns, then there’s definitely the chance he wins.
What a comeback victory for @MerabDvalishvil 🔥
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Overall, this is a tricky fight to pick because while that kind of stifling game from Dvalishvili – the one that won him his bout with Aldo – is easy to imagine, it’s also not impossible to see Yan getting him out in a blitz.
However, the fact that ‘No Mercy’ hasn’t won since 2021 while Dvalishvili is riding a lengthy eight-fight win streak dating back to 2018 might mean he has a mental edge. The pick, therefore, is ‘The Machine’ via decision.
The Pick: Dvalishvili via decision
#2. UFC heavyweight division: Alexander Volkov vs. Alexander Romanov
Unsurprisingly with a UFC Fight Night, the co-headliner this weekend features a heavyweight tilt rather than a better-sounding bout in a lighter division.
In this case, though, at least both Alexander Volkov and Alexander Romanov are ranked in the top 15. Will the winner go onto fight Jon Jones for the heavyweight crown? Likely not, but at least it should be decent to watch.
Of the two, Volkov is obviously the more known quantity. ‘Drago’ has been part of the promotion since 2016, and while his octagon record of 8-4 doesn’t seem that impressive, he does have some big wins to his name.
Volkov has defeated Alistair Overeem, Fabricio Werdum and Jairzinho Rozenstruik, while losing to the likes of Ciryl Gane and Curtis Blaydes.
His massive stature – he stands at 6’7” and boasts an 80” reach – makes him tricky to beat, and while he doesn’t really possess a ramrod jab, he can definitely abuse opponents from distance and has the power to stop them.
#UFCVegas56VOLKOV ENDS IT IN ROUND 1 😱 #UFCVegas56 https://t.co/JgstKSDVAW
Where he’s fallen down previously is on the ground. His takedown defense doesn’t always hold up, particularly against solid wrestlers. If he’s put on his back, he also struggles to both get up and defend himself.
Interestingly, that kind of attack is Romanov’s game. ‘King Kong’ isn’t the tallest heavyweight, but he’s a powerful, stocky fighter who has brutally efficient wrestling. From the top, meanwhile, he’s a threat with both his ground-and-pound and his submission game.
Stylistically, then, this should be a lay-up for Romanov – if it weren’t for the fact that he completely gassed out in his last bout with Marcin Tybura after dominating the first round.
Essentially, if ‘King Kong’ can take Volkov down early and get into a dominant position like Tom Aspinall did last year, then he could find a way to win. However, it is worth noting that Aspinall was fighting in front of his home fans and Volkov didn’t look in the best shape for that fight.
Given ‘Drago’ looked much better against Rozenstruik, and Romanov has never beaten an opponent on his level yet, then, the pick is Volkov via decision.
The Pick: Volkov via decision
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a light heavyweight clash, Ryan Spann faces Nikita Krylov. This bout was set to headline a Fight Night event a few weeks back, only to fall apart on the night due to Krylov suffering an unexpected illness.
Thankfully, it’s been rebooked here and it remains an exciting-sounding clash on paper. Both men have knockout power, both men are willing to fight in a reckless manner, and neither is durable enough to really survive a bad situation.
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@Superman_Spann leaves Dom Reyes LAYING. WOW. #UFC281 https://t.co/b6wh30EmAl
Spann’s reach advantage should theoretically give him an edge standing, while Krylov would be favored on the ground, but ‘The Miner’ is also a decent striker, too. If he can get inside the reach of ‘Superman’, then he can definitely hurt him. Therefore, the pick is Krylov via KO.
In a featherweight clash, Ricardo Ramos takes on Austin Lingo. It’s hard to know what to expect in this one, largely due to Ramos’ unpredictable nature. We’ve seen him win in serious style – including with a spinning elbow in his last fight – but we’ve also seen him lose three times, twice by stoppage.
Lingo is far less proven. He’s only fought in the octagon three times, winning twice and losing once. From what we’ve seen, he appears to be a hard-nosed striker with serious durability. Overall this could go either way, but given Lingo’s toughness, the pick is the Texan via decision.
In a bantamweight bout, Said Nurmagomedov faces off with Jonathan Martinez. Unsurprisingly, it’s Nurmagomedov who has all the hype on him. He’s 6-1 in the UFC and is currently riding a four-fight dominant win streak.
#UFCVegas66Talk about flipping the script!!
Said Nurmagomedov comes through with the sub late in Round 2 💪 #UFCVegas66 https://t.co/KfYbYhvepN
Martinez is on a four-fight streak in his own right, though. He also has more octagon experience, debuting in 2018, and boasts an underrated record of 8-3. However, as a flashy striker, he just doesn’t possess the takedown defense he needs to win here. The pick is Nurmagomedov via submission.
Finally, Vitor Petrino takes on Anton Turkalj in a light heavyweight bout. This one is difficult to pick because both men are largely unknown quantities. However, Petrino did impress on Dana White’s Contender Series, winning his bout via KO, while Turkalj looked to offer nothing in his octagon debut. The pick, then, is Petrino via TKO.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC heavyweight division: Karl Williams vs. Lukasz Brzeski
UFC bantamweight division: Raphael Assuncao vs. Davey Grant
UFC middleweight division: Sedriques Dumas vs. Josh Fremd
UFC bantamweight division: Mario Bautista vs. Guido Cannetti
UFC flyweight division: Ariane Lipski vs. JJ Aldrich
UFC bantamweight division: Victor Henry vs. Tony Gravely
UFC flyweight division: Tyson Nam vs. Bruno Silva
UFC welterweight division: Carlston Harris vs. Abubakar Nurmagomedov