UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Robert Whittaker vs. Ikram Aliskerov
This weekend marks the UFC's first visit to Saudi Arabia. The event has seen its headliner changed, but this one should sitll be good regardless.
UFC Fight Night: Robert Whittaker vs. Ikram Aliskerov features major bouts in the middleweight and heavyweight divisions, as well as a plethora of other interesting fighters.
Essentially, this one isn't far off a pay-per-view level quality card, making it a must see affair.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Robert Whittaker vs. Ikram Aliskerov.
#1 UFC middleweight bout: Robert Whittaker vs. Ikram Aliskerov
Initially, the headline bout here would've seen Robert Whittaker taking on Khamzat Chimaev, and wow, what a fight that would've been.
With June 2024 appearing to be genuinely cursed, though - also losing Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler a week later - the MMA gods once again reared their heads last week.
Chimaev has been sidelined with some kind of illness, and so 'The Reaper' will now find himself faced with Ikram Aliskerov. It's still a good fight, but not quite on the level of the original.
So can Aliskerov pull off what would be by far the biggest win of his career? Or will he be another victim of Whittaker, one of the most underrated fighters of his time?
Thus far at least, Aliskerov has created a lot of hype around him. Once known only for a pre-UFC loss to Chimaev, the Dagestani debuted in the octagon last year and dispatched Phil Hawes with a remarkable combination.
After destroying Warlley Alves in his second fight in the big show, it was clear that he had a bright future. But could this fight be a step too far for him?
Whittaker, realistically, would probably be considered a legend of the octagon were it not for Israel Adesanya. 'The Reaper' captured middleweight gold back in 2017, then beat Yoel Romero twice before running into 'The Last Stylebender'.
Adesanya proved to be kryptonite for Whittaker; his sniping style meant that he was able to pick apart 'The Reaper' and his pressure-boxing style, and he scored two wins over the Aussie.
Outside of that, though, Whittaker has been largely perfect. He's shown amazing poise in point-fighting style bouts against the likes of Darren Till and Kelvin Gastelum, and has also beaten heavy power punchers in Paulo Costa and Jared Cannonier.
Whittaker rarely gets taken down, can always seem to scramble to his feet, and has an insanely good killer instinct. Sure, he doesn't always finish his fights, but he usually ends up on top somehow.
The only question mark hanging over him is his loss to Dricus du Plessis. However, 'Stillknocks' has more than proven his worth at this stage, and Whittaker did bounce back with his violent and grueling win over Costa.
Overall, then, it's hard to see Whittaker losing this one. Not only was Aliskerov initially preparing for a far easier foe, but he also hasn't fought anyone on the level of 'The Reaper' yet.
The Dagestani could yet surprise fans and prove to be the real deal, and so it wouldn't be an outright jaw dropper if he were to take out Whittaker here. Stranger things have happened, after all.
Despite this, it's just hard to see Whittaker falling on short notice. 'The Reaper' is probably a top five middleweight of all time, and it doesn't seem like his time is up just yet.
The Pick: Whittaker via third round TKO
#2 UFC heavyweight bout: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Alexander Volkov
This weekend's card has a distinctively Russian feel despite taking place in Saudi Arabia, and the co-main features two Russians going at it.
With these two men ranked at No.3 and No.5 in the heavyweight division, too, it could also have title implications.
The last time we saw Sergei Pavlovich in action, things didn't end well for him. Despite using his brick-like fists to tag Tom Aspinall in the early going of their interim title bout, he was eventually knocked out by the Brit.
Prior to this, he'd quickly become the heavyweight division's boogeyman. After losing his octagon debut in 2018 to Alistair Overeem, Pavlovich reeled off six wins in a row, all by knockout, stopping both Derrick Lewis and Curtis Blaydes in the process.
Despite his success, we still don't know all that much about the Russian. That's because he tends to hit so hard that his opponents haven't had the opportunity to really test things like his ground game and stamina.
Alexander Volkov, of course, is a little more proven. Debuting back in 2016, 'Drago' quickly ascended to the top ten of the division, but tended to have the same issue.
He'd beat smaller, less skilled foes, but come up short against opponents who were able to get inside his ridiculous reach and either ground him or outwork him.
However, given that the only men to beat him were Lewis, Aspinall, Blaydes and Ciryl Gane, it's hard to overlook him.
More to the point, Volkov turned up the aggression following his loss to Aspinall. He brutally dispatched Jairzinho Rozenstruik in a surprising fight, and has since beaten Alexander Romanov and Tai Tuivasa, too.
Basically, then, this one should come down to two things: can Pavlovich get inside the reach of the 6-foot-7 Volkov and land one of his bombs? And if he can't, if Volkov drags him into deeper waters, can he really survive?
The first question might have already been answered. According to the record books, despite standing 4in shorter than Volkov, Pavlovich's reach is 84in, 4in longer than that of 'Drago'.
Given his tendency to start quickly, then, it feels likely that unless the knockout loss to Aspinall has ruined his confidence, Pavlovich will wade forward swinging and will probably connect.
Only Lewis has been able to knock Volkov out thus far, but that seems very likely to change here.
The Pick: Pavlovich via first round KO
#3 UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a welterweight bout, Kelvin Gastelum faces Daniel Rodriguez. This one is interesting as remarkably, it still doesn't quite feel like Gastelum has found his best weight division.
Realistically, the TUF 17 winner would probably be best off fighting at 180 pounds, but that class doesn't exist. Instead, it feels like he'll continue to flit around between middleweight and welterweight, winning some fights but losing the more difficult ones.
Where does Rodriguez sit on that scale? 'D-Rod' was once considered slightly underrated, but he's now lost his last two bouts, both via finish. He is 7-3 in the octagon, but has tended to grind out his wins and is more of a jack-of-all-trades than anything else.
Gastelum, on the other hand, does have a tendency to beat those opponents who don't hold an advantage over him in any single area. With that considered, the pick is Gastelum via decision.
At featherweight, Muhammad Naimov was set to take on Melsik Baghdasaryan. However, with 'The Gun' now sidelined due to injury, Naimov is set to hope for a new, late-notice opponent.
Given Naimov has reeled off three straight wins inside the octagon, to see him lose to a last-minute replacement feels unlikely. Of course, anything can happen in the UFC, so the result of this one remains to be seen.
Finally, at light-heavyweight, Johnny Walker squares off with Volkan Oezdemir. This is a major bout pitting two top-ten ranked fighters against one another, and given both have seen mixed results recently, it's tricky to call.
Of the two, Walker is almost certainly the more explosive. Capable of seemingly anything in the octagon, he could well surprise Oezdemir with something wild and take him out in the early going.
However, nobody has really done that to Oezdemir since he debuted in 2017. 'No Time' has lost fights, sure, but only Daniel Cormier whitewashed him. He took Magomed Ankalaev the distance, and pushed Jiri Prochazka hard, too.
Given Walker isn't all that durable despite his excellent offensive arsenal, it feels more likely that Oezdemir will weather an early storm, and then dispatch his foe. The pick is Oezdemir via second round KO.
#4 UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC middleweight bout: Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Joilton Lutterbach
UFC lightweight bout: Nasrat Haqparast vs. Jared Gordon
UFC welterweight bout: Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Nicolas Dalby
UFC bantamweight bout: Kyung Ho Kang vs. Muin Gafurov
UFC light-heavyweight bout: Magomed Gadzhiyasulov vs. Brendson Ribeiro
UFC bantamweight bout: Xiao Long vs. Lee Chang Ho
UFC middleweight bout: Sedriques Dumas vs. Denis Tiuliulin