UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez
After a weekend with no event, the UFC is back this Saturday. This time, the promotion will be visiting the city of its first event - Denver - for a Fight Night show.
UFC Fight Night: Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez features a hastily put-together headliner, and if we're honest, little else of consequence.
Despite this, with any hope, this event will at least provide fans with some fun fights after a weekend with none.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez.
#1 UFC flyweight bout: Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez
At one stage, this main event was all set to be one of the UFC's most intriguing fights of July. That's because it would've seen former strawweight titleholder Rose Namajunas against one of her trickiest opponents to date.
Red hot prospect Maycee Barber was hoping to climb into title contention with a win over 'Thug Rose', but instead, a stay in hospital forced her to withdraw last week.
Instead, Namajunas will now face Tracy Cortez, who to be fair, was a good choice from Dana White and company. Not only was she already preparing for a fight one week later, but she is also unbeaten in the octagon and is also a hot prospect of sorts.
Cortez isn't as exciting as Barber, but she's arguably been just as effective. Since joining the UFC in 2019, she's picked up five wins, and also holds a victory over Erin Blanchfield, too.
A powerful wrestler, Cortez is not reckless in her approach, and tends to grind her foes down more than anything else. That's why she hasn't finished anyone yet - and it's also why there isn't that much hype on her.
Against Namajunas, though, she'll probably need more than that. When 'Thug Rose' is at her best, she's arguably the most lethal offensive female fighter in UFC history.
There are two big questions around Namajunas, of course. The first is whether she'll show up at her very best, because if she doesn't, there's every chance Cortez could grind her down.
The second is how good she truly is at 125 pounds. She did look good against Amanda Ribas, though, and it's arguable that Ribas is better than anyone Cortez has faced in the octagon.
Overall, then, it's hard to imagine Cortez being able to win at least three of five rounds here without being caught by something nasty, whether that's a submission or a big shot. She isn't likely to finish 'Thug Rose', and just doesn't have the top-level experience to avoid the former champion's deadly offense.
Therefore, this should be Namajunas' fight to lose.
The Pick: Namajunas via third round TKO
#2 UFC welterweight bout: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov
Put simply, this welterweight tilt is a curious choice for a co-headliner. Whether the UFC should really be placing a bout between two fighters who lost their last octagon appearance in this kind of slot is debatable.
However, both Santiago Ponzinibbio and Muslim Salikhov are usually exciting fighters, and so the hope is that they'll produce a firefight.
Of the two men, at their peaks, Ponzinibbio would've been an easy pick here. 'Gente Boa' once had not only a sneakily effective boxing game with some serious power in his hands, but his chin was also very strong, allowing him to withstand major punishment.
Now, though, the native of Argentina is pushing 40 years old, and to be honest, he hasn't looked the same since taking a lengthy period away from action after 2018.
At that point, Ponzinibbio was riding a seven-fight win streak and had climbed into title contention. Upon his return, though, he was knocked out by Li Jingliang, and has since suffered another three losses, while only looking good in his win over Alex Morono.
More worryingly, his chin looks all but shot. He was knocked out badly by Kevin Holland in his last bout, and doesn't look anywhere near as durable as he once did.
That should give Salikhov some confidence. 'The King of Kung Fu' is a wildly explosive striker who throws crazy strikes in a largely controlled manner, and he's more than capable of scoring big knockouts, as he did against Andre Fialho.
However, the Dagestani is even older than Ponzinibbio - he turned 40 last month -and while he's still explosive, he's also lost a lot of his durability and was knocked out in his last fight too.
Basically, then, this one should come down to which man can land the big shot first, as it's likely to end the fight. It could honestly go either way, but in his prime, Ponzinibbio was the better fighter. Therefore, the smart bet is probably on 'Gente Boa' to pull it off.
The Pick: Ponzinibbio via first round KO
#3 UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a lightweight clash, action hero Drew Dober takes on Jean Silva. Initially, this clash would've seen Dober squaring off with Mike Davis, but due to injury, Silva has stepped in just two weeks after beating Charles Jourdain at UFC 303.
'Lord' looked excellent in that fight, dispatching a tricky foe with violence to pick up his second KO in the octagon. Does he really have enough to take out Dober, though?
A lot depends on how much Dober has left in the tank in terms of durability. He'll always have his brick-like fists, and he'll probably always struggle on the ground, but his iron chin would often take him past foes like Silva. Now, though, it's a bit of a worry, especially as he was knocked out by Matt Frevola last year.
Overall, though, it's hard to see how Silva, who will be moving up to 155 pounds for this clash, can succeed on such late notice. The pick is Dober via KO.
In a welterweight tilt, Ange Loosa faces Gabriel Bonfim. Bonfim picked up two wins in the octagon in 2023 to receive some hype, but suffered an upset loss to Nicolas Dalby in his last fight and didn't look so hot.
Loosa, on the other hand, has been largely forgettable during his brief tenure in the promotion. Interestingly, the fighter who beat him - Mounir Lazzez - was dispatched by Bonfim in the Brazilian's octagon debut.
MMA math doesn't always work, but in this instance, unless Loosa can catch 'Marretinha' early on, then he doesn't seem to have enough to defeat him. The pick is Bonfim via decision.
At featherweight, Julian Erosa faces Christian Rodriguez. Like Dober, Erosa is one of those fighters who might never make it into title contention, but will likely always have a spot on the roster due to his wild and exciting style.
Last time out, 'Juicy J' dispatched Ricardo Ramos with a guillotine, but he may find it harder going against Rodriguez. 'CeeRod' already has wins over two major prospects in Raul Rosas Jr and Cameron Saaiman.
With that said, Rodriguez also fought both men at 135 pounds, and won't have the kind of size and strength advantage he enjoyed over Rosas against Erosa.
This could go either way, but the smarter pick appears to be the explosive but risky style of Erosa. The pick is Erosa via knockout.
Finally, at middleweight, Abdul Razak Alhassan takes on Cody Brundage. Both of these men deploy a similar style in that essentially, they're glass cannons. They're capable of finishing foes, albeit in different ways, but when they're pushed, they tend to falter.
This fight, though, appears to favor the thudding fists of 'Judo Thunder'. He's likely to start fast, and if he moves in on Brundage before his foe can hurt him, this fight is likely to be over. The pick, therefore, is Alhassan via KO.
#4 UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC flyweight bout: Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Fatima Kline
UFC flyweight bout: Luana Santos vs. Mariya Agapova
UFC middleweight bout: Andre Petroski vs. Josh Fremd
UFC bantamweight bout: Da'Mon Blackshear vs. Montel Jackson
UFC flyweight bout: Joshua Van vs. Charles Johnson