UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov
The UFC returns to the Las Vegas APEX this weekend for its latest Fight Night event, which features a middleweight headliner.
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov does not feature the strongest card, but as a lead-in for International Fight Week, hopefully, it will have some solid action.
With that in mind, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov.
#1. UFC middleweight bout: Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov
It’s probably not an understatement to suggest this is an odd main event, largely because of the presence of Abus Magomedov, who hugely lacks experience in the UFC.
The native of Dagestan has just one fight in the octagon to his name, a first-round stoppage of Dustin Stoltzfus that took him just 19 seconds.
#UFCParisAbus Magomedov flattened Dustin Stoltzfus in 19 seconds 😳 #UFCParis
(via @espnmma) https://t.co/32iEzj7DA0
Sure, he has an impressive record of 25-4, appears to be a deadly finisher, and his highlight reel looks good, but it’s still hard to really quantify him.
After all, none of his wins have come over notable opponents, and he was knocked out by Louis Taylor as recently as 2018. More strangely, he’s fought just once since 2020, in his win over Stoltzfus.
Sean Strickland, of course, is a far more well-known fighter. One of the most outspoken fighter on the planet, ‘Tarzan’ currently sits at No.7 in the middleweight rankings thanks to wins over Jack Hermansson, Uriah Hall and most recently, Nassourdine Imavov.
Strickland isn’t the most exciting fighter to watch, preferring largely to beat his opponents with volume striking, but he’s difficult to hit, has a stiff jab, and his cardio means he can easily last five rounds.
On paper, then, this should be a comfortable win for Strickland, probably via decision. However, there is one caveat, and that’s Strickland’s 2022 loss to Alex Pereira.
Sure, Pereira is one of the best kickboxers on the planet, but he still caught Strickland hanging his hands and took him out, and even if he doesn’t possess the same skill, Magomedov is definitely explosive enough to do the same.
Therefore, it’s likely this fight ends in one of two ways. Either Magomedov gets Strickland in a rush in the early part of the bout, shocking most viewers and turning himself into a star, or he gets outworked over a largely dull five rounds.
The smartest pick appears to be the latter, but the former wouldn’t outright shock anyone.
The Pick: Strickland via decision
#2. UFC lightweight bout: Damir Ismagulov vs. Grant Dawson
From a rankings perspective, it’s arguable that this lightweight tilt is the most important fight on the card. Both Damir Ismagulov and Grant Dawson are ranked within the UFC’s top fifteen at 155lbs, and they’re well-matched, too.
With the winner likely to go onto bigger things, then, who will take it?
Interestingly, despite Ismagulov being ranked three places above Dawson at No.12, it’s ‘KGD’ who has the better record. Dawson has still not been beaten in the octagon and holds an overall record of 19-1-1.
More to the point, he’s also been dispatching some good fighters. He finished both Leonardo Santos and Jared Gordon, for instance, and most recently stopped the hype of Olympic wrestler Mark Madsen by choking him out in the third round.
#UFCVegas64Grant Dawson remains undefeated in the Octagon 💪 #UFCVegas64 https://t.co/nRH2htPM9l
‘KGD’ is not the most athletic fighter at 155lbs, but he makes up for that with sheer toughness and a workmanlike ability to grind his foes down. On the ground, he’s a highly dangerous finisher, but he’s also adept at striking too and doesn’t really have too many weaknesses.
Ismagulov, on the other hand, is more of a striker by trade. At 24-2, his overall record is slightly deeper than Dawson’s, but it’s arguable that he hasn’t beaten the opponents Dawson has.
Interestingly, while he was also a deadly finisher prior to his octagon career, since arriving in the UFC he hasn’t stopped a single opponent, with many fans believing his biggest win, over Guram Kutateladze, being a bogus decision.
Overall, if Ismagulov can keep the bout standing, he should be able to take the fight to Dawson. However, he’s also not the most explosive fighter in his own right, and against Arman Tsarukyan, he found himself in some horrid positions on the ground.
When you consider that ‘KGD’ is arguably a more venomous finisher than Tsarukyan on the ground, it’s definitely possible to see a scenario where Dawson manages to take Ismagulov’s back and sink a choke.
The pick, therefore, is Dawson via third-round submission.
The Pick: Dawson via third-round submission
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a welterweight clash, Max Griffin takes on Michael Morales. Morales clearly has the bigger hype around him coming into this one. He’s gone 2-0 during his UFC career, stopping both his opponents via TKO, and is 14-0 overall.
BANG! 💥
@MichaelMMA21 with the flippin' sweet KO to improve to 14-0! #UFC277
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Griffin has admittedly turned back the hype of prospects before, most notably stopping Song Kenan in 2021 and beating Mike Perry back in 2018. However, ‘Max Pain’ is also not as durable as he once was, and while he’s won four of his last five, he has never been the most explosive fighter.
Therefore, the pick is Morales via KO, although to see Griffin win a decision wouldn’t be shocking.
In a flyweight bout, Ariane Lipski battles Melissa Gatto. This clash of Brazilian fighters should be fun for as long as it lasts, as both have a penchant for nasty finishes.
Granted, Lipski hasn’t quite lived up to her ‘Violence Queen’ nickname during her octagon career, but her kneebar win over Luana Carolina in 2020 still remains one of the nastiest submissions in recent memory. Overall, Lipski can fight anywhere, but she’s probably more comfortable standing.
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🇧🇷 @Ariane_Lipski wasn't giving up on that one! Wow! #UFCFightIsland2
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Gatto is a similar fighter, but lacks the top-level experience of Lipski, and was firmly outworked in her last trip to the octagon. The pick, in a close one, is Lipski via decision.
In a lightweight clash, Ismael Bonfim takes on Benoit Saint-Denis. Bonfim was last seen dispatching Terrance McKinney in violent fashion with a flying knee, and the explosive Brazilian has an impressive record of 19-3.
Saint-Denis is still perhaps best known for his horrific beating at the hands of Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in 2021, but he’s won his last two fights, both via stoppage.
The big question here is whether Saint-Denis can deal with the athleticism of Bonfim, and whether he can survive the onslaught he’s likely to face early on. He showed durability against dos Santos, after all, but not in a good way.
This one is close to call, but it’s likely that the athleticism of the Brazilian pulls him through. Bonfim via TKO is the pick.
Finally, Nursulton Ruziboev faces Brunno Ferreira in a middleweight bout. This one is tricky to pick, purely because Ruziboev is a totally unknown quantity at the UFC level despite having a wild record of 30-8-2.
Ferreira, on the other hand, destroyed the tough Gregory Rodrigues in his octagon debut in January and has wrecked all eight of his foes thus far.
Despite the difference in experience, Ferreira is clearly the more explosive fighter, and so the pick is ‘The Hulk’ via KO.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC welterweight bout: Kevin Lee vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov
UFC featherweight bout: Joanderson Brito vs. Westin Wilson
UFC featherweight bout: Yana Santos vs. Karol Rosa
UFC lightweight bout: Guram Kutateladze vs. Elves Brenner
UFC flyweight bout: Ivana Petrovic vs. Luana Carolina
UFC heavyweight bout: Alexander Romanov vs. Blagoy Ivanov