UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes
After a couple of events on the road, the UFC returns to its Las Vegas Apex this weekend for another Fight Night event.
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes features a huge heavyweight clash in the headliner, as well as some other interesting bouts up and down the card.
No titles will be at stake this weekend, but this event should hopefully be an entertaining one.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes.
#1. UFC heavyweight bout: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes
If the UFC were being run purely as a sporting organization with less focus on the money-drawing side of things, the winner of this fight would probably be in line for the next shot at heavyweight champion Jon Jones.
After all, while No.3-ranked Sergei Pavlovich and No.4-ranked Curtis Blaydes are technically below Stipe Miocic on the ladder right now, Miocic also hasn’t won a fight since 2020.
Pavlovich and Blaydes, meanwhile, have been beating anyone put in front of them for some time now.
Of the two, it’s Russia’s Pavlovich who has been more devastating. Now that former champ Francis Ngannou has departed, Pavlovich almost certainly has the heaviest hands in the division. Like his fictional countryman Ivan Drago, whatever he hits he seems to destroy.
The Russian is 5-1 in the octagon and has not lost since his debut there in 2018. All five of his wins have come via KO or TKO, with Pavlovich using his brick-like fists to finish Tai Tuivasa and Derrick Lewis in his last two bouts.
HEAVY HANDS 
👊 HEAVY HANDS 👊
Sergei Pavlovich scores a MASSIVE win over Tai Tuivasa! 😳
#UFCOrlando https://t.co/cT1V4nU16v
Blaydes is also coming off a TKO win, albeit one caused by a knee injury to Tom Aspinall. Prior to that, he stopped Chris Daukaus with strikes and stifled Jairzinho Rozenstruik for a decision.
‘Razor’ hasn’t always been the most popular fighter with the fans and Dana White, as he doesn’t always fight in an entertaining way.
Probably the best wrestler in the division, Blaydes seems capable of taking anyone down. While he’s ruthless from the top with his ground-and-pound, though, he often takes a safety-first approach.
This has led him to big wins over the likes of Alexander Volkov and Rozenstruik, but also to plenty of criticism.
In terms of his actual fighting ability, Blaydes is basically a complete fighter. His wrestling is his bread and butter, but despite his dull reputation, he is capable of knocking opponents out on the feet, as he did to former champ Junior dos Santos in 2020.
His big weakness, unfortunately, is the fact that his chin doesn’t always hold up to big shots. Two of his three losses in the UFC saw him knocked out cold, and he was also stunned badly by Mark Hunt in their 2018 bout.
Theoretically, that should be music to Pavlovich’s ears. However, the Russian’s one loss came when Alistair Overeem took him down and hammered him from the top, something that Blaydes is more than capable of doing.
This one should come down to whether Blaydes can get a takedown and how aggressive he can be from the top. If ‘Razor’ can put Pavlovich down and punish him, then he should win.
However, if he can’t take him down early – or if he’s too conservative from the top, allowing for a stand-up – then he could be in trouble on the feet. Given he’s been knocked out before, and Pavlovich only needs one clean shot, the pick is the Russian.
The Pick: Pavlovich via first-round KO
#2. UFC bantamweight bout: Song Yadong vs. Ricky Simon
This weekend’s co-main event comes in arguably the UFC’s most stacked weight division, bantamweight. Right now, Song Yadong and Ricky Simon are both ranked within the top ten, and a win for either man could propel them towards genuine title contention.
While Song is coming off a defeat to Cory Sandhagen, it’s probably fair to suggest that he’s got the better record of the two.
‘The Kung Fu Kid’ is 8-2-1 in the octagon, and holds a win over Marlon Vera, who is currently considered the “dark horse” of the division.
Simon, on the other hand, is currently riding a five-fight win streak and most recently upset the heavily favored Jack Shore, handing the Welshman his first defeat in MMA via submission.
#UFCLongIslandRicky Simon is a DANGEROUS dude 😰 #UFCLongIsland https://t.co/Wte9BQ1rKx
He also holds a win over Merab Dvalishvili, although that came back in 2018.
In general, both men are well-rounded fighters with no glaring weaknesses in any single area. Simon perhaps favors the ground more than Song, but he also hits very hard. He stunned Shore with a punch that set up his submission win, for instance, and also knocked out Raphael Assuncao in their bout.
Song’s best attribute is his athleticism and speed. He seems to possess the ability to bounce in and out and catch his opponents with nasty offense that they don’t see coming, something that led to his knockout of Marlon Moraes in 2021.
In his loss to Kyler Phillips, though, Song seemed to struggle with the range and speed of his foe, as if he was unsure how to react to a fighter just as quick as he was. That could be worrying for this bout with Simon, particularly with the power that the Oregon native packs.
Overall, this one could honestly go either way. However, given the form of Simon as well as his wrestling and punching power, it’s likely that he’ll just about edge a tight decision.
The Pick: Simon via decision
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a middleweight bout, Brad Tavares takes on Bruno Silva. Tavares has now been in the UFC for almost 13 years, but despite suffering his fair share of losses along the way, he remains a durable, well-rounded fighter.
Silva, meanwhile, looked like a red-hot prospect when he debuted with three KO wins in a row. A decision loss to Alex Pereira didn’t really ruin his momentum, but a submission loss to Gerald Meerschaert was very disappointing, particularly considering Meerschaert’s issues with explosive hitters.
This one looks tight to pick, but given Tavares’ age, slowly-waning durability and Silva’s hitting power, ‘Blindado’ via TKO is the pick. It wouldn’t be a surprise, however, to see Tavares win a decision.
In a lightweight clash, Bobby Green takes on Jared Gordon. The last time we saw ‘Flash Gordon’, he was controversially beaten by Paddy Pimblett in a fight that many fans felt he won. A solid fighter in all areas, the issue Gordon has is that his offense simply isn’t that effective, meaning he’s always in danger of struggling against more explosive foes.
Green isn’t much more explosive, per say, but he’s a slick boxer with an underrated wrestling game, and despite losing his last two bouts, he’s more than capable of hurting his foes. It’s hard to see Gordon managing to actually hurt him in return, so the pick is Green via decision.
In a strawweight bout, Iasmin Lucindo squares off with Brogan Walker-Sanchez. Quite why this fight is on the main card is anyone’s guess. Both women lost their octagon debuts last year, with Lucindo being outpointed by another debutant, while Walker-Sanchez lost the TUF 30 finale to Juliana Miller.
Overall, though, Walker-Sanchez is the slightly safer pick here, as she did well to reach the TUF finals, has a win over the tough Miranda Maverick, and has taken Erin Blanchfield to decision. The pick, therefore, is Walker-Sanchez via decision.
Finally, Jeremiah Wells takes on Matthew Semelsberger in a welterweight tilt. Both of these men are coming off impressive wins.
Semelsberger outpointed the tough veteran Jake Matthews in his last trip to the octagon in a bit of an upset, while Wells knocked out Court McGee to take his octagon record to 3-0.
#UFCAustinJEREMIAH WELLS CRUSHES COURT McGEE!! 😱 #UFCAustin https://t.co/a2p2Dyhuje
This one could be difficult to call, and it’ll also be a fun match between two of the more under-the-radar prospects at 170lbs. However, simply because he seems slightly more explosive, the pick is Wells via TKO.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC lightweight bout: Ricky Glenn vs. Christos Giagos
UFC bantamweight bout: Rani Yahya vs. Montel Jackson
UFC featherweight bout: Karol Rosa vs. Norma Dumont
UFC heavyweight bout: Mohammad Usman vs. Junior Tafa
UFC featherweight bout: Francis Marshall vs. William Gomis
UFC flyweight bout: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Karine Silva
UFC bantamweight bout: Brady Hiestand vs. Danaa Batgerel