UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Ricky Simon
This weekend sees the UFC return to the Las Vegas APEX for another Fight Night event, and the honest truth is that it feels a little thrown together.
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Ricky Simon features a headliner moved from the previous week’s card due to the loss of the initial main event and few ranked fighters in action.
The best we can probably hope for with this event is some fun action fights. As everyone knows, the promotion can often produce a great show even without name value.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Ricky Simon.
#1. UFC bantamweight bout: Song Yadong vs. Ricky Simon
Initially, this weekend’s event was set to feature a lightweight clash between ranked contenders Arman Tsarukyan and Renato Moicano. When the Brazilian pulled out about two weeks ago, the UFC essentially hit the panic button.
They have moved this bantamweight clash between Song Yadong and Ricky Simon into the headline slot, despite neither man really being that viable of a main eventer, and have switched it to a five-round fight too.
Will the fight be a good one? Given that Song and Simon tend to be highly exciting to watch, it seems likely that it will be. Still, it’s arguably a sign that at times, the promotion does spread itself a little thin with its Fight Night events.
When the predictions for last weekend’s event were made, Simon was the favored fighter based on his current form, his wrestling ability and his punching power. Does that still stand over five rounds? It’s a fair question to ask.
Simon is riding a five-fight win streak, most recently defeating the highly rated Jack Shore. He also holds a win over Merab Dvalishvili, albeit five years ago. He doesn’t necessarily have any major weaknesses, but it’s worth questioning how he’ll hold up against an explosive foe like Song.
‘The Kung Fu Kid’, in contrast, is hugely athletic, quick, and tends to leap in and out of range to deliver big blows. He holds a knockout win over former title challenger Marlon Moraes and edged out Marlon Vera in a 2020 thriller, too.
#UFCVegas50SONG YADONG SHUT MORAES' LIGHTS OUT 😱 #UFCVegas50 https://t.co/TezbYzvIjB
More intriguingly, though, he does have previous in terms of headlining an event and fighting over five rounds. He fought Cory Sandhagen last September in a Fight Night headliner and while he didn’t come out with a win, he definitely pushed ‘The Sandman’ hard and didn’t look exhausted when the fight ended after the fourth round.
Simon, on the other hand, has simply never seen this kind of spotlight before. Sure, it’s only a Fight Night event, but he’ll definitely have more attention on him than he’s felt in the past, particularly this week as the event builds up.
The last time he was in this kind of position, in fact, he fought Urijah Faber in the co-headliner of a 2018 event. He looked out of his depth in a nasty first-round knockout loss.
Overall, then, the fight remains a close one to call and the styles may slightly favour Simon’s more bread-and-butter approach, particularly when you consider the struggles Song had with Kyler Phillips in 2021.
However, add in the extra rounds, the pressure of headlining, and the fact that ‘The Kung Fu Kid’ remains dangerous later into fights, and it’s worth considering a different outcome than the one we might’ve seen in a three-rounder.
The Pick: Song via fourth-round TKO
#2. UFC middleweight bout: Caio Borralho vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
This weekend’s co-headliner is a curious choice. Both Caio Borralho and Michal Oleksiejczuk are largely unheralded, but they might also be amongst the more underrated fighters at 185 pounds.
Whether either man can elevate themselves into UFC middleweight title contention is a fair question to ask, with the likely answer being probably not. Still, it’s arguable that they’ve earned this spotlight.
Of the two, Oleksiejczuk is arguably the more known quantity, purely because he’s been with the promotion a little longer. ‘Hussar’ debuted in the octagon way back in December 2017, but saw his win over Khalil Rountree overturned after a positive drug test.
He returned just over a year later to beat his next two foes by KO, but then dropped two fights via submission, falling to Ovince Saint Preux and Jimmy Crute.
Since then, Oleksiejczuk has gone 4-1 in the octagon, and since moving to 185 pounds in 2022, he’s been particularly devastating. Sam Alvey and Cody Brundage lasted a total of under six minutes combined with the Polish fighter, who knocked both men out.
#UFCVegas59Welcome to middleweight Michal Oleksiejczuk 👏 #UFCVegas59
https://t.co/NaYtrCh6FJ
Borralho has been less devastating than ‘Hussar’, but he’s arguably been more consistent in his year with the promotion. He’s already 3-0, having won three straight bouts following his debut in 2022, which came almost exactly a year ago.
‘The Natural’ has shown himself to be a phenomenal grappler, taking down all three of his opponents with relative ease and handling them well on the mat.
All three opponents did their best to escape bad positions and were able to last the distance, but none of them truly pushed or hurt Borralho, who now hasn’t fallen to defeat since 2015.
The question here, then, is whether Oleksiejczuk can land something nasty on the Brazilian before he’s taken down. Based on what we’ve seen from the Polish fighter before, if he’s put on his back, it’s highly likely that Borralho will find his first finish in the octagon.
After all, he does hold four KO wins and three submissions, and was more of a renowned finisher in his pre-UFC days.
The issue for Oleksiejczuk here is that while he’s capable of knocking foes out and hits very hard, he’s also a plodding fighter who isn’t that explosive and fast. That means that he’s going to need to stalk forward to land something on Borralho.
That might play into the Brazilian’s hands, particularly in terms of being able to time his takedowns. Assuming he can get ‘Hussar’ down early, then, this fight really ought to favour him.
The Pick: Borralho via first-round submission
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a middleweight bout, Rodolfo Vieira takes on Cody Brundage. It’s probably fair to say that legendary Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist Vieira has been a disappointment in the octagon. He’s shown himself capable of tapping foes out, but he also has a tendency to blow up, particularly if he can’t land an early takedown.
Brundage is an interesting match for him because he’s a strong wrestler, but he’s also a little plodding and hasn’t really shown all that much during his time in the UFC despite scoring two wins. The pick, therefore, is Vieira via submission.
In a heavyweight bout, Marcos Rogerio de Lima squares off with Waldo Cortes-Acosta. This feels like some odd matchmaking, as de Lima is coming off probably the biggest win of his career, a submission of the legendary Andrei Arlovski.
#UFCVegas63DE LIMA WASTES NO TIME WITH THE SUBMISSION ON ARLOVSKI 😨 #UFCVegas63 https://t.co/kq4304MFNZ
‘Pezao’ remains a limited fighter, particularly on the ground, but he hits scarily hard and his cardio is relatively decent, too.
Cortes-Acosta, also known as ‘Salsa Boy’, is 2-0 in the octagon and looks like a decent prospect. However, he seems unlikely to attempt to take de Lima down, and may not have the ability to outgrapple him anyway. This one could devolve into a sloppy brawl, but the pick is de Lima via TKO.
Finally, Joshua Quinlan meets Trey Waters in a welterweight clash. This one should be fascinating. Quinlan picked up plenty of hype last year after brutally knocking out his foe on Dana White’s Contender Series and following that up by destroying Jason Witt in his octagon debut.
He was initially set to meet Ange Loosa here, but instead will face Waters, who is a unique opponent as he stands at 6’2”, tall for welterweight. However, he’s making a late-notice debut, and Quinlan is a remarkably dangerous and hard-hitting fighter. The pick is Quinlan via KO.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC heavyweight bout: Martin Buday vs. Jake Collier
UFC featherweight bout: Julian Erosa vs. Fernando Padilla
UFC lightweight bout: Natan Levy vs. Pete Rodriguez
UFC flyweight bout: Cody Durden vs. Charles Johnson
UFC bantamweight bout: Stephanie Egger vs. Irina Alekseeva
UFC bantamweight bout: Brian Kelleher vs. Journey Newson
UFC bantamweight bout: Hailey Cowan vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth