UFC Predictions: UFC Vegas 15: Blaydes vs. Lewis - Predictions and Picks
After a decent pay-per-view this past weekend, the UFC is back on Saturday for yet another show from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas.
UFC Vegas 15 features a high-level main event between top-ranked Heavyweights Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis, and well, not much else of note, to be honest.
But in all seriousness, it’s not exactly the UFC’s fault. These cards are essentially still trying to catch up for the seven weeks the UFC had off during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, so what can you do?
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Vegas 15: Blaydes vs. Lewis.
#1 UFC Heavyweight Division: Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis
A lot is at stake in this major Heavyweight clash, but mostly for Blaydes. With current UFC Heavyweight champ Stipe Miocic set to defend his title against Francis Ngannou at some point in early 2021 (hopefully), with a win here, Blaydes should theoretically be next in line.
After all, Razor has now been in the UFC since 2016. He’s 10-2, and the only man to defeat him has been Ngannou. I guess that could make a third fight a little tricky to sell should Ngannou dethrone Miocic. But even then, how do you deny a guy who has beaten the likes of Junior Dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Aleksei Oleinik?
The issue for Blaydes – in terms of his standing with UFC President Dana White at least – has been with his fighting style. Razor is a smothering wrestler who primarily looks to use his powerful takedowns to win him his fights.
And when he essentially used that wrestling and little else to grind out Alexander Volkov in June – a smart gameplan – he came under fire from White for “playing it safe."
To tell the truth, that’s not really fair. Admittedly, the Volkov fight wasn’t exactly entertaining. But in his previous fight, Blaydes knocked out Dos Santos standing – showing his massively improved boxing game based around the threat of his takedowns.
In fact, of his 10 UFC victories, only four have gone to decision. The rest of his opponents – including Overeem, Oleinik, and Shamil Abdurakhimov – have been TKO’d, usually in violent fashion. To describe Blaydes as a dull fighter, then, would be ridiculous.
Lewis is almost the polar opposite of Blaydes in that sense. The Black Beast is usually billed as a serious knockout artist, and if the UFC were to put a highlight reel together for him, it’d be understandable.
Lewis wields brutal power in his hands that’s pretty unique, even for the Heavyweight division. He’s sparked out the likes of Oleinik, Volkov, Marcin Tybura, and Travis Browne. However, he’s also been in arguably more dull fights than Blaydes has.
His fight with Francis Ngannou at UFC 226 was not only one of the worst in the history of the UFC Heavyweight division, but it was one of the worst in UFC history - period. And his clashes with Ilir Latifi and Blagoy Ivanov weren’t much better.
Regardless of whether each man is exciting or dull, though, who’s more likely to win? Personally, I’m favoring Blaydes.
The Black Beast can definitely knock Blaydes out if he lands, that’s for sure. Ngannou turned Blaydes’ lights out in their last fight in 2018, but Razor was also hurt badly by Mark Hunt in their fight. And Lewis has the kind of power to knock anyone in the UFC out cold.
However, Lewis’ biggest weakness has always been his ground game. His takedown defense has gotten slightly better over the years, but nobody in the history of the UFC has a power double leg quite like Blaydes. He’s landed more takedowns in the Heavyweight division than any other fighter in UFC history.
And on his back, Lewis is definitely a fish out of water. The Black Beast does have some semblance of technique, and he defends submissions pretty well from his back. However, his go-to technique is simply to muscle his opponent off him, which likely won’t work against a huge opponent like Blaydes.
Overall, there’s no reason to think Blaydes would waste his time trading with Lewis in this fight. He shrugged off Dana White’s criticism and clearly knows exactly what his strengths and weaknesses are. And at the age of 29, he’s still improving rapidly.
I think he’ll probably come out on Saturday, slam Lewis down, and immediately find himself in a dominant position. From there, he’ll beat on Lewis until he simply can’t take any more. And surprisingly, The Black Beast doesn’t weather punishment all that well, meaning I think Blaydes gets this done before the third round.
The Pick: Blaydes via second-round TKO