UFC Predictions: UFC Vegas 31: Islam Makhachev vs. Thiago Moises Predictions
After the craziness that was UFC 264, things slow down for the world’s biggest MMA promotion with a smaller show this weekend – UFC Vegas 31: Islam Makhachev vs. Thiago Moises.
UFC Vegas 31 doesn’t have much depth, but the presence of one of the UFC lightweight division’s top prospects – as well as former UFC bantamweight champ Miesha Tate – should make it watchable.
So with that considered, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Vegas 31: Islam Makhachev vs. Thiago Moises.
#4. UFC lightweight division: Islam Makhachev vs. Thiago Moises
To say this is a bit of a confusing main event would be an understatement. While he hasn’t yet earned the notoriety of his teammate and friend Khabib Nurmagomedov, it’s quite clear that at this point, Islam Makhachev might be the best prospect in the UFC lightweight division.
The dangerous Russian holds a UFC record of 8-1 and hasn’t lost a fight since 2015. After his most recent win – a whitewashing of Drew Dober – most fans expected him to be put up against a top ten fighter next time around.
Instead, he’s been matched with Thiago Moises who, despite being a highly skilled fighter, simply isn’t that much of a step up for Makhachev.
A grappler by trade with a decent if understated striking game, Moises has been in the UFC since 2018. He lost his debut fight to Beneil Dariush, but since then he’s gone 4-1 and is now riding a three-fight winning streak.
Essentially though, this fight is a horrible stylistic match for the Brazilian. Moises is undoubtedly a dangerous, skilled grappler who holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu – something he demonstrated brilliantly with his Achilles lock win over Michael Johnson.
However, quite how he expects to take Makhachev down is anyone’s guess. With Khabib now retired, it’s probably fair to suggest that the Russian is the strongest wrestler in the division. Not only does he land 69% of his takedown attempts, but he also holds a takedown defense rate of 93%.
Moises might hope to have more success standing – after all, he largely outstruck Alexander Hernandez and showed a lot of improvement in that fight.
The issue with that idea, though, is that Makhachev is an excellent striker in his own right who holds knockout power in his punches – just ask Gleison Tibau – even if they’re slightly wild at times.
Add in the fact that Makhachev should be able to take Moises down at will if he needs to, and it all adds up to a tricky night for the Brazilian.
Can Moises find a way to win? It’s impossible to write any fighter off at the UFC level, and Moises is definitely legit. However, in terms of a style match, this might be the hardest for him in the entire division.
With that in mind, the prediction is Makhachev via TKO, and hopefully the UFC can find him a higher-ranked opponent next time out.
The Pick: Makhachev via third round TKO