Will Paulo Costa actually make it to the octagon to fight Khamzat Chimaev? Analyzing the Brazilian's inactivity

As hard as it may be to believe, Paulo Costa was once a serious title challenger in the UFC middleweight division. The Brazilian entered the promotion with an undefeated record. Not only was he unbeaten, he had finished every foe via TKO in the first round. This streak continued in his UFC debut.

Before long, he was 13-0 and challenging Israel Adesanya for middleweight supremacy. He evoked memories of Vitor Belfort, another hulking Brazilian known for his punishing striking and powerful physique. But unlike 'The Phenom', 'Borrachinha' failed to capture UFC gold and has not been the same since.

He was recently scheduled to face Ikram Aliskerov at UFC 291, but withdrew from the bout and was just recently revealed by UFC president Dana White to be scheduled to face Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 294. However, Paulo Costa has very quickly carved out a reputation for being unreliable.

The Brazilian has pulled out of countless fights now. Is there any degree of confidence that he will make it into the octagon come October 21? Will the fight actually happen?

Paulo Costa's fall from grace

Initially, Paulo Costa seemed like the most serious threat to Israel Adesanya's reign in the 185-pound weight class. 'The Last Stylebender' had stupefied every opponent with his elusive movement, quick feet and sniping counterpunches. But how would he fare against a bruising pressure-fighter?

Costa is effective on the front foot. He cuts off his opponent's angles of escape by stepping with them, sliding his feet across their body as they try to circle away from him. All the while, he uses a right round kick to the body and hard left hook to the liver as barriers to keep his foe sandwiched between him and the fence.

The clash of styles between him and Adesanya made their bout interesting to analysts, and the nature of their feud drew the attention of the casual fanbase. The man who had gone to war with Yoel Romero was now aiming for the Nigerian-New Zealander's crown. Yet, he crumbled under the bright lights.

TOO EASY.

Israel Adesanya defeats Paulo Costa! #UFC253

(via @UFC)
pic.twitter.com/dKZbyV6UkF

Israel Adesanya outstruck him so effortlessly that Paulo Costa stood frozen in time for several moments during the bout. He was flummoxed, and in the second round, he was a handed a loss via TKO. Worse still, he was subjected to one of the most humiliating post-fight celebrations in recent memory.

In the aftermath of the fight, Paul COsta took to social media to express his disapproval over Adesanya's conduct, while also asserting that he was pursuing a rematch. He claimed that everyone wanted to see the pair run it back, but his words couldn't have been further from the truth.

Paulo Costa needed to re-earn his title shot. Unfortunately, it was easier said than done.

Pulling out of fights and disputes

After suffering his first-ever MMA loss, and in such lopsided fashion, Paulo Costa needed something to boost his image. First, he tried to explain away his loss by claiming that he struggled to sleep the night before UFC 253, and so resorted to drinking an entire bottle of wine to lull himself to dreamland.

This, he claimed, was responsible for his poor performance. It led to widespread criticism and only worsened his reputation. Some time afterwards, he was scheduled to face former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker at UFC on ESPN 22, but the Brazilian withdrew from the bout, citing illness.

Upon his recovery, he was subsequently booked for a clash with Jared Cannonier at UFC on ESPN 28. However, he again withdrew from the fight, claiming to have never signed a bout agreement. Furthermore, after hearing about Logan Paul's reported payout for fighting Floyd Mayweather Jr., he was furious.

Dana White reacts to Paulo Costa wanting more money to fight

#UFC #MMA pic.twitter.com/j0Lj63Otgd

He took to Twitter to express his dissatisfaction with the UFC's pay structure, demanding that the promotion pay him as a main eventer, while claiming that the YouTube boxing scene had unveiled how disgraceful the UFC's pay structure was. This caused Dana White to hit back.

The UFC president told Costa that he was in no position to be making demands, given the embarrassing nature of his most recent fight at the time. Finally, months later, he faced Marvin Vettori at UFC Fight Night 196. Unfortunately, the Brazilian was the recipient of immense criticism heading into the bout.

The matchup was originally scheduled to be a middleweight clash, but Costa's refusal to cut weight led to the fight being altered into a catchweight bout. He was 25 pounds over the middleweight limit. He further disgraced himself by losing the bout.

His shenanigans ultimately led to Dana White announcing that 'Borrachinha' would no longer fight at middleweight. However, White's stance changed and the Brazilian next faced former middleweight champion Luke Rockhold in the UFC 278 co-main event.

Paulo Costa emerged victorious in a surprisingly competitive bout to snap his previous two-fight losing streak. The fight happened on August 20 of last year, and Costa hasn't fought since. The UFC again tried to schedule a matchup between him and Robert Whittaker, this time at UFC 284.

🚨KHAMZAT CHIMAEV IS BACK🚨

🔥Paulo Costa will take on Khamzat Chimaev at #UFC294 on October 21st.

[per Dana White]

#UFC294 #UFC #MMA pic.twitter.com/NVVgPCnh6O

However, Paulo Costa, like he had with the previous Jared Cannonier bout, claimed to have never signed an official bout agreement. Thus, the fight did not take place. Months later, the Brazilian was booked in a matchup with Ikram Aliskerov at UFC 291.

But, just a little over a week away from the PPV, Paulo Costa withdrew from the matchup and is now scheduled to face Khamzat Chimaev. While this may very well be the UFC reshuffling bouts, it is reasonable to doubt Costa's commitment given that he has fought just three times since 2019.

Getting him into the octagon has become increasingly more difficult. Thus, it is entirely possible that another injury, pay dispute or changing whim could somehow lead to him pulling out of this fight as well.