Will Tom Aspinall beat Jon Jones? Analyzing the dynamics of a heavyweight title unification
After his UFC 304 conquest, the specter of Tom Aspinall looms ever larger over heavyweight, and consequently, over Jon Jones, who holds the division's undisputed title. The Englishman made short work of Curtis Blaydes, one of the weight class' elite fighters, knocking him out within a minute.
It was Aspinall's first interim title defense, which should have never taken place, as Aspinall should have been fighting Jones to unify the belts. Nevertheless, the Englishman punctuated his victory with a post-fight callout of 'Bones' himself, boldly proclaiming that he is his rival's better.
Now, all signs point to Aspinall fighting the winner of Jones' expected matchup with Stipe Miocic, with even UFC CEO Dana White confirming in both the pre-fight and post-fight press conferences. If the fight does indeed come to pass, there is good reason to regard Aspinall as the favorite.
Tom Aspinall vs. Jon Jones: Striking
All fights start on the feet, and Tom Aspinall and Jon Jones have vastly different kickboxing approaches. Aspinall is more basic, yet more effective. Offensively, he relies on his jab to set things up, alternating his targets between the head and body, all in an effort to set up a right cross or overhand.
Aspinall's logic is simple, for his jab is a measuring tool. If he can land his jab, then he can land his right hand. Due to his speed, explosiveness, and power, this one-two is extremely effective, as he often lands his blows before his opponent has the time to make reads and react accordingly.
Check out Tom Aspinall's knockout of Curtis Blaydes:
Anyone who decides to fire back against him, is often pulled into an exchange where the Englishman, due to his speed, cracks them with a check hook, which is alternated with his right hand. This is the fate that befell Curtis Blaydes at UFC 304, and Sergei Pavlovich at UFC 295.
Opponents who are unwilling to exchange with him while find him applying heavy pressure by stepping across them as they circle, cutting off their angles of escape while battering them with low kicks. These kicks destabilize his foe's stance, essentially kicking them out of it to force a reset.
Once his foe tries to reset their stance, Aspinall pounces, specifically when their footing is weakest. While simple, the interim champion's approach is unstoppable, netting him a 100% finishing rate. He is not, however, perfect. Aspinall does not move his head off the center-line, and keeps his chin high.
Check out Tom Aspinall's knockout of Sergei Pavlovich:
So, he is susceptible to counterpunches. Unfortunately for Jones, this is not an opening he can capitalize on to any meaningful degree. The undisputed heavyweight king has very little power, having never truly knocked anyone out. That isn't to say he hasn't ever stopped his foes.
However, Jones is severely lacking in punching power, and it is largely due to his poor punching mechanics. As a striker, Jones is kick-heavy, with his punches merely used as a setup for his kicks. Besides a one-two that's lacking in power and speed, Jones offers little in the way of his boxing.
Instead, he is a dynamic kicker who pokes his opponents with push kicks to the body and the lead knee, while occasionally alternating between oblique kicks and side kicks. Jones' kicks are predominantly used as distance management tools, given his immense reach and height advantage over most foes.
Check out Jon Jones' knockout of Daniel Cormier:
Thus, most of Jones' opponents need to close the distance on him. Unfortunately, that puts their lead knee within range of his kicks, so 'Bones' snaps their lead knee back with side kicks, oblique kicks or push kicks, stopping them in their tracks. A secondary effect is that this gradually slows his opponent's movement.
So, his opponents are prevented from getting close enough to land, all while the cumulative damage from his kicks impairs their mobility and ability to put any weight behind their punches. Whoever manages to get into boxing range is in little danger from Jones' punches.
In his prime, 'Bones' was a more dynamic striker. He would land the one-two to implant its threat in his foe's mind, before faking the right cross and spinning into a back elbow after stepping across his opponent. He would also fake the one-two to draw a lunge from his foe, only to intercept them with a step-in elbow.
Unfortunately, Jones is now a plodding pot-shotter, and his striking struggles mightily against fighters who match him in size. His most difficult fights were against Alexander Gustafsson and Dominick Reyes, both of whom were 6 feet 5 inches tall.
Check out Jon Jones' oblique kick:
They were long enough that their punches still landed from a range longer than Jones expected. Moreover, Jones' defense of sticking his lead hand out and leaning away as he retreats doesn't work against fighters long enough to still land on him without overextending.
He has no head movement, and against Aspinall, who is larger and faster than him, this line of defense will leave him open to power punches that will land, and there's a likelihood of 'Bones' sustaining serious damage given Aspinall's finishing rate and power.
Tom Aspinall vs. Jon Jones: Wrestling & Grappling
The truth of the matter is that wrestling and grappling are unlikely to play a role in a Tom Aspinall vs. Jon Jones fight. Neither man will be able to take down the other. The Englishman's wrestling consists of blast double-leg takedowns after faking the one-two to draw out a committed counterpunch from his opponent.
Once his foe squares their hips, Aspinall ducks under and shoots. This will not work on Jones, who does not square his hips and commit to any punches. Similarly, Jones' wrestling, which has deteriorated, will not be a factor. 'Bones' rarely uses his Greco-Roman wrestling anymore.
Check out Tom Aspinall taking down and submitting Alexander Volkov:
His performance against Ciryl Gane is not a reflection of his wrestling, given the Frenchman's severe grappling limitations, as the latter was outwrestled by a grappler as green as Francis Ngannou, who was essentially one-legged, no less. Jones' double-legs will prove ineffective against Aspinall.
Jones' wrestling success relies on his long arms, which enables him to hook his hands behind his opponent's legs even when they widen their base. This enabled him to take down the likes of Daniel Cormier, a former Olympic wrestler. However, 'DC' was much shorter than him.
Against inferior wrestlers in Alexander Gustafsson and Dominick Reyes, 'Bones' struggled due to their size. Both men are an inch taller than him, so their legs are long enough that when they widened their base, Jones could not lock his hands behind them.
Check out Jon Jones taking down and submitting Ciryl Gane:
Only in the rematch with Gustafsson, after the latter had torn his groin, was Jones able to take him down. Once, or if, Aspinall and Jones ever fight, the wrestling and grappling will cancel each other out. Fans will be treated to a kickboxing bout that Jones will likely lose.