What's happened to the Superstars? Chapter One Peyton Manning

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Peyton Manning

It’s been a rough pre-season for Peyton Manning. The Denver Broncos’ quarterback is 39-years-old, has had three spinal surgeries in a 15 month period, still doesn’t have any feeling in his fingertips and he’s trying to learn an entirely new offence. The uncertainty of his situation has, perhaps understandably, drawn out the doubters. NFL.com’s Chris Wesseling has called this season the end of Peyton Manning as we know him. Dave Dameshek has been trying to bury him for about five years now. And there are many more who are joining the ‘Manning-is-done’ camp.

I watched the tape of last Sunday’s season opener between Denver and the Baltimore Ravens because I couldn’t quite believe that Peyton Manning was as bad as all the talking heads are suggesting. I thought I would be able to come away blaming new head coach Gary Kubiak’s system rather than Peyton Manning’s arm. Everybody knows you have to let Peyton operate from shotgun and not under centre, right? Of course, he’s going to throw up a stinker if you put him under centre for half of the game and make him move around. That’s a young man’s game, and Peyton Manning is no young man! Silly Gary Kubiak…

That’s what I expected to be saying. But that’s not what I saw. What I saw was a below average NFL quarterback who doesn’t have an NFL-calibre arm anymore. It absolutely wasn’t the system; Peyton threw out of shotgun 30 times, and from under centre only 10 times. As I expected for an immobile quarterback who’s made his living 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage, Manning was downright awful from under centre, completing only 4 of 10 passes for 18 yards and 1 sack. That’s a 40% completion rate, and all ten of the throws looked ugly.

But he wasn’t much better out of shotgun, surprisingly. Manning completed 20 of 30 passes from that formation, throwing for 157 yards with 0 TDs, 1 INT (returned for a TD) and 3 sacks; a 66% completion rate. Five of the incompletions were excusable by my count, but the completion percentage isn’t the problem here.

The problem is that while Peyton clearly still has a Peyton Manning mind, he doesn’t have a Peyton Manning arm. As ESPN’s Jemele Hill said, “Mentally he’s there. Physically he’s washed.” The flutter ball is becoming an unwelcome trademark for the all-time great. His longest throw of the day against Baltimore was an easy 18-yard toss to Sanders against soft zone coverage. Since week 11 of 2014 (including the playoffs), he has thrown more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (4) on passes thrown 10 or more yards downfield. His yards per attempt in that time is 6.7, 25th in the NFL. On Sunday, it was 4.38, 34th out of 35th quarterbacks who played on the opening weekend.

What this means for opposing defences is that, unlike in years past, they no longer have to respect the deep ball. That allows defensive co-ordinators to bring safeties up in run support and seriously limit the Broncos options for moving the ball. This showed up in a big way on Sunday. The Ravens defence played the run first, stopping Denver for a measly 2.8 yards per carry; only New Orleans had a worse average this past weekend.

Something else the defence can do which was almost unthinkable while Manning was in his prime is blitz him. Per ESPN, ‘since Week 11 of last season, Manning has completed 49 percent of his passes against the blitz, 29th among 35 quarterbacks with 25 or more passes over that span. The six with a worse completion percentage: Ryan Lindley, Derek Carr, Josh McCown, Blake Bortles, Charlie Whitehurst and Brian Hoyer.’

With no effective run game, no threat with the deep ball and a liability against the blitz, the Broncos are in real trouble. Their only chance of creating some good positive yardage this season is with quick throws and exceptional yards-after-catch (YAC) play. Fortunately, receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanual Sanders both excel at that and are entirely capable of bailing out their ageing leader. Unfortunately, everybody knows that. The Ravens corners played tight against the dynamic pair on Sunday, giving them absolutely no chance to do anything with the ball in their hands. Neither receiver is listed among the top 50 receivers in YAC in week one.

As long as defences follow the blueprint that the Ravens have given the league, playing run first, staying tight to the line and daring Manning to throw deep, I don’t know how the Manning-Kubiak offence can be effective. Manning is perhaps the greatest offensive mind of his generation; he might be able to play smart enough to cover up his limitations. If the quarterback comes out big tonight against a fearsome Kansas City pass rush, he could make a lot of people (including me) eat their words.

But there are so many limitations to cover up now that it’s going to be very difficult. If Manning slips up at Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday Night Football in prime time, which is what I expect at this point, there’s going to be no slowing down the media’s hand as it attempts to pull down the curtain on Manning’s glittering career. After all, even Brett Favre retired eventually.

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