2021 NFL MVP: Stats suggest Tom Brady was head and shoulders above Aaron Rodgers
The NFL regular season is officially over, and that means it is time to debate whether the MVP award should go to Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. There has been a growing trend of declaring Rodgers the favorite on social media, although he missed a game and also didn't play a full game in Week 18.
The Green Bay Packers did finish 13-4 and got the lone bye in the NFC. Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers also finished 13-4 entering the postseason.
The stats tell the story even further, clearly declaring Brady as the favorite if the numbers are what matters the most.
Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers 2021 https://t.co/RWHveSKw6G
Rodgers only has a few marks where he beats Brady, and the margins are all close. Otherwise, it's hard to ignore the lead Brady has in most traditionally important NFL categories.
So what is the case for both to win MVP?
Tom Brady over Aaron Rodgers for NFL MVP?
It is no secret that certain traditional stats factor into NFL award voting more than others. Those include passing yards, touchdowns, and wins.
The analytics community may not like that, but the fact one voter said he wouldn't vote for Rodgers because he doesn't like him shows where the voting process stands in the present.
Brady sits with 1,201 more passing yards than Rodgers and also has five more total touchdowns. Both of their teams finished with the same record, and Brady started all 17 games.
Getting to 5,316 yards, even in 17 games, is a mark that can't be glossed over.
Brady also edges Rodgers out on a list of Pro Football Focus analytical marks, in addition to the more traditional stats. Even in QBR, ESPN's statistic that measures quarterback performance, the mark is nearly even.
Passer rating is the only real mark where Rodgers has a significant lead, with a margin of 9.8 over Brady.
So Tom Brady
- had a significantly better statistical season than Aaron Rodgers
- played 1 more game than Aaron Rodgers
- led a better offense than Aaron Rodgers
- dealt with incompetent coaching
- finished with the same record as Aaron Rodgers’ team
& Aaron Rodgers is the MVP?
Rodgers still has a strong case to win as his efficiency on the field has been impossible to dismiss. He has 188 fewer attempts than Brady, but only five fewer touchdowns.
The Packers did not need to dial up as many passing attempts because Rodgers was so efficient and dominant when throwing the ball.
That factors into the yardage conversation as well, as Rodgers could have thrown for much more if the Packers were a lesser team in close games every week.
The debate comes down to how voters view value this NFL season. Are they going to solely go off of stats?
Or will they declare Rodgers to be more valuable because the team looked lost without him on the field?
There is no distinct definition of how to vote for an NFL award, and it has become a quarterback-dominated honor throughout the past decade. Usually, stats come into play as the most important factor in the voting.
Both quarterbacks seem worthy of the award this season. Brady is 44 years old and Rodgers is 38, yet both are playing like they are in their 20s with no signs of slowing down.
Whoever loses out will have a case that they should have won. But they will also lose to one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. The most important thing for each player this postseason is winning the NFC and reaching the Super Bowl.
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