2023 NFL Draft: Why is market for WRs shallow? Possible reasons for decline in demand explored
Wide receiver prospects are not getting enough love in the 2023 NFL Draft. Mock drafts revealed that there were no surefire wideouts in the first round. Some experts projected TCU’s Quentin Johnston may go in the opening round. Meanwhile, other predictions include USC's Jordan Addison, Boston College’s Zay Flowers and Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba being selected in the Top 32.
One thing’s for sure: this class isn’t generating as much excitement as in previous years. But why is it that the pass-happy NFL isn’t too enamored with downfield targets? A combination of factors contributes to a shallow 2023 wide receiver pool.
Some teams have more significant needs than wide receiver
Most NFL teams have a bona fide top receiver on their roster. That talent level at the position is high, with younger players like Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson dominating the opposition.
It’s hard to run out of quality wide receivers, to mention a few: Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, and CeeDee Lamb are the stars of an extensive list.
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None of the players mentioned above suit up for the same team. Therefore, it’s easier to count the franchises needing an upgrade in their receiving corps. However, they must address more pressing roster concerns. It’s not that they won’t draft a wide receiver. Remember, the 2023 NFL Draft goes for seven rounds, and there’s plenty of talent available.
There’s also that dilemma of getting the best players left on the board versus getting the players that fit their system. Hence, they can pass up on a wide receiver if somebody else has a skill set appropriate to their needs. Likewise, some teams have glaring questions that must be answered first.
For example, the Indianapolis Colts could use more help at wide receiver, even after signing Isaiah McKenzie. They finished 23rd in passing last season, averaging 201.9 yards per game. But with the fourth pick in the 2023 draft, they might go for a quarterback after the release of Matt Ryan.
It's a position they arguably haven’t solved since Andrew Luck retired. They tried Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Ryan, but none provided assurances.
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Meanwhile, the Houston Texans require a wide receiver after trading Brandin Cooks to the Dallas Cowboys. They signed Robert Woods to a two-year deal and are still waiting for John Metchie III’s debut after being diagnosed with leukemia. But while the Texans need more talent at wide receiver, getting a quarterback is their most immediate need.
Davis Mills showed flashes of brilliance but ultimately isn’t their long-term solution. The Texans will likely draft a quarterback with the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. They will be keen on getting either Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud or Alabama’s Bryce Young. Luckily, they also own the 12th pick of the 2023 draft, courtesy of the trade that sent Deshaun Watson to the Cleveland Browns.
Texans general manager Nick Caserio could use that pick to draft a wide receiver. But the numbers dictate that they must get an edge rusher. Statmuse revealed that the Texans finished second-worst in sacks with 39, tied with the Tennessee Titans and Detroit Lions. None of those teams made the playoffs, leading to the second reason for the declining need for wideouts this year.
NFL teams are investing in defense
Since the NFL rulebook favors offenses already brimming with talent, teams must find players who can negate that advantage. They are easy to find because they all play in one unit. The Georgia Bulldogs won the 2021 national championship with one of the best defenses in college football. They allowed only 153 points in 15 games, including three shutouts.
Therefore, it’s no surprise that five of their players were selected in the first round of the 2022 draft. Travon Walker became the first overall pick, and Jordan Davis went 12 picks after. Quay Walker, Devonte Wyatt, and Lewis Cine all went in round one. Furthermore, Nakobe Dean, Channing Tindall, and Derion Kendrick make it eight players from the Bulldogs’ defense.
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Kirby Smart’s wards weren’t the only team that gained attention in last year’s draft. The other top five picks were Aidan Hutchinson, Derek Stingley Jr., Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, and Kayvon Thibodeaux, all defensive players. Sixteen defensive players were selected in the opening round of the 2022 draft, a slight increase from 14 in 2020 and 2021.
In 2017, 19 defensive players went in the first round. Two years later, 17 defensive specialists heard their names called in the opening round. As a result, Pro Football Reference showed a decrease in average points per game over the last three seasons. It went from 24.8 points in 2020, 23 in 2021, and 21.9 in 2022.
Having a great defense negates what talented receivers can do, even if they have impressive numbers in college.
2023 NFL Draft: a gap year for wide receiver talent
At some point, the talent levels of wide receivers in college will be watered down. Top-notch prospects only come occasionally, and 2023 is a down season. This year’s bunch perhaps isn’t as exciting compared to the previous seasons. Likewise, the uptick in wide receivers selected in recent years lessened the need for additional wideouts in 2023.
In 2018, eight wide receivers were taken in the first 61 picks, including two in the first round. Four years later, 13 wide receivers were selected in the first 54 picks, including six in round one. Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, Jahan Dotson, and Treylon Burks were all top 20 picks.
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That’s nearly one-fourth of NFL teams that do not need a pass-catcher. Add in the ten teams that drafted wide receivers in the first two rounds of the 2021 draft, and even fewer teams need a wide receiver.
Declaring early for the NFL Draft also accelerates the ascension of talent. The league states that eligible prospects must be out of high school for at least three years or have used up their playing years. Four of the six wide receivers selected in round one of 2022 did not use their full college eligibility. This option advances the rite of passage, depleting the level of eligible prospects in college.
Conversely, the NCAA granted an additional year for all athletes playing in the 2019-20 autumn and winter seasons. As a result, some wide receivers opted to play in college for another year. It also means that first-year players who did not play during the COVID-shortened 2020 season must stay in college until 2024 before becoming eligible.
The Kansas City Chiefs won without a top-rated wide receiver
Teams on the rise copy what legitimate contenders are doing. Hence, they might take a page out of the Kansas City Chiefs’ approach. Football experts wrote them off after trading Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins. Consequently, Hill became the highest-paid wideout, earning an average of $30 million annually.
But the Chiefs proved they don’t need to spend much at wide receiver to build a winning team. They won Super Bowl LVII with wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, and Skyy Moore.
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In effect, teams can win championships if they have a fantastic system, despite not having big-name talent. The Chiefs and the New England Patriots have used that formula to gather multiple titles in the past.
Of course, having an exceptional quarterback elevates the capabilities of everyone around him. Patrick Mahomes is doing in Kansas City today what Tom Brady did in New England previously. For that reason, NFL teams would want to have the right quarterback. This philosophy allows Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, Hendon Hooker, and Tanner McKee to get more attention from NFL scouts.