A look ahead to the top half of the 2024 NFL Draft
We’ve arrived at Thanksgiving week in the 2023 NFL season and since I’m in a generous, giving mood, I decided to give something to look forward to for fanbases of teams not currently projected to be factors in the playoff picture.
This includes a couple of teams from the NFC South that could ultimately still host a playoff game due to the division they’re in and two .500 teams from the AFC. When you look at the list of teams, they all still lack certain elements and the best way to acquire those is with high draft picks.
I will start by quickly listing the current draft order (if the season ended today) then share my general bird's-eye view of the upcoming class before we work our way through each team.
The cut-off for the teams discussed here is pick 16, which makes sense considering the next teams up would be the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills. Cincinnati has a couple of uncomfortable decisions to make in free agency but was on pace to be one of the most dangerous groups in the AFC, while Buffalo is very much in the thick of things being just half a game back from the seventh seed.
General thoughts on the 2024 NFL Draft class
I’m glad to be ahead of schedule at this point of the calendar year compared to the past in terms of my draft evaluations. I know the type of effort it takes every year to get to a point where I feel like I can talk about 85-90% of drafted players in an educated fashion.
This past April, I made it exactly through the first five rounds until a name was announced that I hadn’t studied on tape. Right now, I have extended notes on close to 150 prospects expected to be part of this upcoming class.
I haven’t done in-depth studies on them to where I’d feel comfortable ranking them in order, particularly considering many of them still have key conference championships and potentially even playoff games to evaluate. However, I have a good grasp on the top-end talent and depth at every position group, players I feel will transition well to the next level, and mostly how the NFL will look at them, pending medical reports.
Therefore, in terms of those top-16 selections I’ve referenced, here are the players I’m pretty certain will be part of that group:
Quarterbacks (2) – Caleb Williams (USC) and Drake Maye (North Carolina)
Wide receivers (3) – Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State), Malik Nabers (LSU) and Keon Coleman (Florida State)
Tight-end (1) – Brock Bowers (Georgia)
Offensive tackles (3) – Olu Fashanu (Penn State), Joe Alt (Notre Dame) and J.C. Latham (Alabama)
Edge defenders (2) – Dallas Turner (Alabama) and Chop Robinson (Penn State)
Interior D-line (1) – Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)
Cornerback (1) – Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)
Other players in consideration right now: EDGE Jared Verse (Florida State), DB Cooper DeJean (Iowa), WR Rome Odunze (Washington), CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson), OT Amarius Mims (Georgia), CB Kalen King (Penn State) and multiple quarterbacks.
We’ve got a long process in front of us, I have a hard time imagining a situation where the first two players off the board aren’t those two QBs unless the Cardinals stick at number two overall and don’t find a trade partner. At this point, the pendulum has swung too far regarding the public perception of Caleb Williams with regard to the rest of the class.
I have seen him operate effectively in structure as part of an Air Raid offense when his protection hasn’t been atrocious, plus then he adds a play-making component to the table that is second to none who I’ve ever studied.
Yet, I can equally see many teams fall in love with Drake Maye, who plays the position more by the book but has incredible arm talent and athletic skills (very reminiscent of Justin Herbert to me, although, we actually have gotten to see him read the full field and make more NFL-type of throws at UNC, compared to Herbert at Oregon).
To me, it’s a true 1A and 1B situation. Where it becomes interesting is if a team falls in love with one of the following four names I’d say – Michael Penix Jr. (Washington), Bo Nix (Oregon), J.J. McCarthy (Michigan), or Jayden Daniels (LSU).
Depending on who ultimately declares, this could be one of the deepest groups of signal-callers we’ve ever seen, but at that position, you don’t wait around on “your guy” typically.
After the top two QBs, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Olu Fashanu are true blue-chip players, who I believe will be treated as such by the league. Both wide receiver and offensive tackle appear very exciting and we could see two or three other names at those respective spots come off the board over the front half of the first round.
Harrison and Fashanu separate themselves due to their combination of insane natural talent and technical prowess at this stage of their careers, in particular the Ohio State pass-catcher when it comes to the latter part.
The sheer amount of WR names as usual exceeds OTs and there is a certain element of scarcity by position that could to teams feeling like they can wait a little bit on pass-catchers. However, I believe this group includes talents that are worthy of overlooking that aspect.
That includes Georgia TE Brock Bowers, who is easily in a tier of his own and should hear his name called early, despite positional value elements that may go against him.
Edge defender is a very interesting group because I don’t believe there are as many high-end prospects in this discussion. There are plenty of day two and especially day three guys to consider, but after the top-six names I’d say, there’s a pretty significant drop-off.
I did not include UCLA edge defender Laiatu Latu as part of the list above, due to a lack of knowledge on his medical situation, considering he was once forced to retire from the sport temporarily based on a neck injury. However, in terms of the best right now, I think he’s the alpha of the group, even though Dallas Turner and Chop Robinson have more freakish athletic traits, which the NFL covets.
Jared Verse has lost some shine, but I think in a vacuum, if you didn’t compare him to the 2022 version of himself – which I expected to enter this past draft – he still is certainly part of this conversation. I’ll also throw in Illinois DT “Johnny” Newton here, who provides the type of quick-twitch ability you see from the elite interior pass-rushers around the league, along with being a consistent disruptor in the run game.
At cornerback, Kool-Aid McKinstry seems to be the one name locked in for the top 10, considering how good his tape is, while having the size measurables any defensive coordinator dreams of. Kalen King unfortunately has regressed a little bit from the guy I loved watching in the summer, who would just attack downhill as the ball comes out or he was asked to support the run.
Cooper DeJean was announced to miss the rest of Iowa’s season last week, but he’ll be an intriguing name, with the size to play safety and legit punt return skills, but also quality film covering receivers inside and out.
The name to really keep an eye on is Nate Wiggins, who is a super-twitched-up, aggressive player. He showed off his long speed on an unbelievable chase-down tackle this past Saturday against North Carolina, where he turned what should’ve been a touchdown into a fumble and touchback for his Tigers. I could see another 12 corners come off the board within the top 100 picks ultimately.
I don’t have a linebacker or safety as part of this discussion currently. Two Clemson linebackers (Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and Barrett Carter) are in contention for later first-round picks, plus I think a guy that could have a meteoric rise at that spot is Texas A&M’s Edgerrin Cooper (when he blows up the combine and people go back to his tape, since not many people are yet really paying attention to an underperforming Aggies program).
On the back end, Miami’s Kamren Kinchens and Minnesota’s Tyler Nubin bring the combination of range, football IQ, and ball skills that the NFL is looking for at the position to address early. However, I’d say somewhere in the 20s feels more appropriate in general and we haven’t seen teams really target those guys earlier than that in recent years.
Let’s now get to the specific landing spots and where all these teams may be looking to go!