NFL teams most likely to go from worst to first - the Baltimore Ravens
After spending months evaluating college prospects and talking about what each team did in the draft and their overall roster, it’s time to discuss their potential in the upcoming season. We will look at all eight teams who finished last inside their division in 2021, and rank them based on the likelihood of ascending to the top of those groups.
This exercise was a lot of fun, because it's enjoyable creating excitement for one franchise. It’s also good to think, to poke holes in rosters/coaching staff and lay out a path for why they may underachieve.
People spend so much time hyping up the top teams that they neglect those closer to the bottom of the league. Particularly in terms of the positives they have going for them.
Now let’s talk about why the Baltimore Ravens can win the AFC North in 2022.
Evaluating the AFC North competition
The Cincinnati Bengals are set to be a major threat to the Ravens for years to come. Especially if the organization is willing to go out of their way to refuse guaranteed contracts beyond the first year and keep their best players in-house. We’ve already seen them change in terms of going out and spending big money in free agency.
As impressive as their run to the Super Bowl was, they did win the division with a slightly underwhelming 10-7 record. As for the Pittsburgh Steelers, has a team ever snuck into the playoffs quite like the 9-7-1 Steelers did last year? Lastly, we have the Cleveland Browns, who have a lot going on right now that doesn’t even concern the football field.
Okay, with the Bengals clinching the AFC North, the Steelers, in order to make the playoffs need:
- Wins vs CLE and BAL
- LAC loss vs DEN, then LAC win vs LV in Week 18
OR
- IND loss to JAX
#1- The Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati did address the area that held them back the most, which arguably cost them their first Lombardi trophy, their offensive line. However, there are some things that will be tough to re-create, such as forcing a turnover in 16 of 21 games. They were tied for the sixth-best AGL (adjusted games lost – a metric used by Football Outsiders to estimate the impact of injuries on teams).
Then there are areas from last year that are concerning, such as converting a lower percentage of third downs than their opponents (-2.0%). Then there was head coach Zac Taylor’s stubbornness on early down run percentage (53%) and formation tells (running the ball out of 12 personnel at an absurd rate). This constantly put them behind the chains.
The offensive line certainly got better, but they did also quietly lose arguably their top performer in Quinton Spain from last year. La’el Collins has been dealing with several injuries recently and the two free agents they signed on the interior were both replacement-level starters.
Defensively, they lost defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi, who was tied for the team-lead in tackles for loss (12) and routinely created disruption up front. They also lost their top defensive player in safety Jessie Bates, who currently has no intention of signing the franchise tender. Their defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo was much more effective in the postseason, being able to craft a gameplan specifically for their next opponents. Compared to the regular season, where they were fairly mediocre, as their takeaways per contest nearly doubled in the playoffs (1.23 to 2.25).
The AFC's leader in receiving yards and receiving TDs this season: Ja'Marr Chase. https://t.co/37ndwGz8p6
#2- The Pittsburgh Steelers
As for the other two teams in that division, the Steelers needed nearly every single break possible over the last two weeks of the season to somehow sneak into the playoffs. They pretty miraculously won against the Browns despite Ben Roethlisberger throwing for 123 yards on 46 attempts. They were then able to get by the wounded Ravens in overtime of Week 18, when they had just six points with less than three minutes to go in the fourth quarter.
They have major question marks at quarterback with the combination of Mitch Trubisky and rookie Kenny Picket. The former is looking to kick-start his career after getting benched for Nick Foles and backing up Josh Allen. Pickett was a major reach at 20th overall in the draft.
Big changes are coming to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
For the first time in 18 seasons a new Quarterback will start under center.
And for the first time since 2001 the Steelers will no longer play at Heinz Field. https://t.co/RbkUbMO2CM
They do have some nice weapons around these guys, but their offensive line held them to 29th in yards per rush gained (3.9). They surrendered the sixth-most pressures (142), despite Ben Roethlisberger averaging an absurdly low 2.20 seconds per pass.
Their defense does have three elite players on it, but they finished dead-last in yards per rush (5.0) and last by far for explosive runs allowed (24 versus 16 for the next-closest). Stephon Tuitt just retired and their corner room is filled with replacement-level guys.
Here are the 2021 sacks from #90 T.J. Watt (@_TJWatt) #HereWeGo #Steelers #NFL https://t.co/yBdJtCAH8X
#3- The Cleveland Browns
The Browns still have one of the most talented rosters in the league. Unfortunately, their quarterback situation is even more uncertain, with Deshaun Watson’s pending lawsuits and looming suspension. Further complicated by Baker Mayfield's trade to Carolina last week, it looks like Jacoby Brissett will be starting in Week 1.
They also had one of the more questionable drafts, where their fourth-round kicker (the only one selected through three days) may have the biggest impact in year one. They didn’t re-sign a Pro Bowl-level center in J.C. Tretter and didn’t add any difference-makers outside of Watson. This does depend on how much better Amari Cooper can be than the previous combination of Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry.
In terms of starting lineups, it's questionable why they don’t have a designated A-gap defender. More importantly, this was an 8-9 group that by all reports was distracted by the power struggles between Baker, OBJ and the organization. It is dobtful that the current situation with Deshaun is going to be less of a factor in their ability to stay focused on the task at hand.
Why the Baltimore Ravens can win the AFC North
That leads us to the Ravens, who show several signs of being in position for a major bounce-back.
The Ravens were 7-4 as long as Lamar Jackson was healthy. This is despite having started the season without their top three running backs, a Pro Bowl cornerback in Marcus Peters and a starting linebacker. They lost an All-Pro left tackle after the first week and several key losses piled up throughout the year. They eventually went out there with practice squad corners and veteran free agent running backs, who nobody else wanted to sign in the last two years.
If the Bengals had “good injury luck”, Football Outsiders estimates by far the highest adjusted games lost last season for the Ravens (191.2 vs. 158.5 for the second-highest). They are bringing back pretty much every single meaningful starter or have replaced them with someone arguably better, other than wide receiver Marquise Brown.
“One of my main goals is just gaining everyone’s respect on the team.
"At this level, respect is a big thing.”
@kyledhamilton_ discussed his rookie year goals during an interview with @RichEisenShow. https://t.co/91h8fhD5jf
Offensively, the Ravens could transition to more pin-and-pull run schemes, with Tyler Linderbaum having premiere mobility at center. We’ll probably see them very tough to match up against based on the personnel they have in the game. They drafted two more tight-ends. So now they can come out in 13 sets and have those guys in tight, but then spread them out, since they’re all quality big slot options.
Defensively, with Mike Macdonald returning to the Ravens as the former Michigan DC, we should see more split-safety principles. This along with the pressure looks we’re accustomed to seeing from them on passing downs. They have a new safety tandem of free agent Marcus Williams and former Notre Dame standout Kyle Hamilton, along with their green-dot guy in Chuck Clark.
So with increased depth at corner as well now, the Ravens will be far less vulnerable to big plays, while the offense could be very unique to gameplan for. This is what makes the Ravens the slight favorite to win the North.
Chance of winning the division: 35-40%
For the full list, make sure to visit the original piece and feel free to check out a bunch of my other write-ups and videos!