Are NFL pocket-passers on the decline? Exploring skill set as league dynamics shift
The NFL is an ever-evolving league. In the past, fullbacks dominated and passing was approached with extreme caution. Meanwhile, in the modern game, the quarterback is now the most important offensive piece.
For decades, the ideal approach to playing quarterback was that of a pocket-passing game manager. As rule changes have made it less of a health risk for the QB to leave the pocket, this playstyle has been in decline in favor of the versatile dual-threat QB.
While the pocket-passer style will never go extinct, its best days are behind us and it seems to be going out of fashion. More and more teams want a QB that can hurt a defense with their legs as much as their arms, able to make something happen when a play breaks down.
Dual threat QBs will always lack the extra polish pocket passers have to their throws.....these QB’s will never be the silky passer that Patrick Mahomes is but that does not mean their offenses can't be just as explosive. https://t.co/dfUUyeiAY9
The passing pocket is the area in the backfield created where the offensive line forms a wall of protection around the quarterback to execute a play. This allows him time to scan the field, set himself up to pass and find an open receiver across all three levels (short, medium and long).
NFL pocket-passers thrive at executing the script, but struggle when asked to play off-script (if a play breaks down). Pocket-passers are not playmakers. A pocket-passer won't be as effective if forced to leave the pocket to throw on the move or rush for yardage. Many of the QBs who play this style are statues in the pocket.
Although the play-style is on the decline, there are pocket-passers in the NFL today.
Pocket-passers in the NFL today
Mac Jones, New England Patriots
A statue in the pocket, Mac Jones needs an offensive structure around him to produce in the NFL. A solid offensive line, a reliable run game and playmakers around him. Jones' excellent accuracy can only take an offense so far. His position seems stable at the New England Patriots, but he could be one underwhelming season from being under threat.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert is definitely mismanaged. Unlike other QB’s of this style, Herbert is capable of a breakaway run. His size (6’6) makes him an interesting red zone threat. Herbert is being used as a pocket-passer to preserve his health and prolong his NFL career, which is understandable.
Davis Mills, Houston Texans
Davis Mills is too much of a health risk to be used as a runner in any form. His lack of speed and ability to take a hit limits Mills to operating in the pocket. With the Texans looking for a QB in the 2023 NFL draft, Davis Mills looks set to be replaced, but he may get a shot this season.
Zach Wilson, New York Jets
Zach Wilson shows signs of being a capable runner but should be advised against taking off on anything that is not a designed run. Wilson is a health risk when outside the pocket in the NFL and overrates his speed to get away from potential tackles.
A poor rookie season followed by a disastrous 2022 campaign has the New York Jets trading for Aaron Rodgers (although it is taking a long time) and Wilson looks set to be a backup.
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Having never shown the willingness to be a runner outside the pocket in his NFL career, Derek Carr has not had a rushing touchdown in over two seasons. The 32 year old QB wants to do his damage from behind the line, not ahead of it.
He has a fresh start with the New Orleans Saints and needs to prove himself to the NFL.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Ever since the ankle injury, Dak Prescott’s rushing ability has been in question. Prescott has lost a yard of pace and this is leading to concerns that he may be on the decline and the wrong man for the Dallas Cowboys.
Prescott may never have the speed he had pre-injury but using his size and weight he could be a short yardage/goal line threat on designed runs.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals' offensive line is making it impossible for Burrow to play in the manner he would like. Burrow does a good job of moving for short yardage and winning downs when he can. However, Burrow’s runs are usually unscripted, racing away from pressure.
Burrow lacks the speed and hit-taking ability to be anything more than a surprise rusher in the endzone or on QB sneaks for first downs. His injury history dictates that the Bengals need to protect him better or risk his career.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Jared Goff has seen something of a rennaisance in recent times. An up-and-down start to his NFL career was followed by a troubling few seasons, during which he was traded to the Detroit Lions. If he hadn't bounced back last season, there is a good chance the Lions would be looking for a new man under center this offseason.
Goff is no runner and he does his best work in the pocket with a little time on his hands. As such, Goff is often referred to as a game manager.
Types of Pocket-passers
Pocket-passers can be broken down into the following two categories:
#1. The game manager
The first type of QB and most common throughout the history of the NFL is the game manager. This type of quarterback executes a game plan/play script and exploits mismatches where the coaching staff points them out.
Game managers require great support to work. An offensive play caller to break down the defense for the QB, the presence of playmakers at multiple positions and a great offensive line to keep the QB untouched to complete the pocket-passers.
Example: Jared Goff, under Sean McVay of the Los Angeles Rams, was an excellent game manager during the 2018-19 NFL season.
McVay's genius scheme ability and Goff's ability to execute the scheme made for a perfect combination. He was a quarterback who reliably got the ball to playmakers like Todd Gurley, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Brandin Cooks. The Los Angeles Rams went 13-3 and made the Super Bowl that season.
#2. The polished pocket-passer
The polished pocket-passer is the evolutionary form of a game manager. The best example of this rare type of QB is future Hall of Famer Tom Brady.
Polished pocket-passers are usually older, more knowledgeable QB’s that lack mobility. They often possess a great physical stature, a good enough arm to make all the necessary throws and the knowledge of how to break down a defense and move the chains consistently.
These are QBs who thrive due to their elite accuracy and game IQ (unlike the game manager who needs a good to great playcaller to be successful). Polished pocket-passers can set up and call their own plays according to how they see the defense.
They don’t need elite weapons, all they need is good chemistry with their receivers to avoid costly interceptions. Tom Brady has made a career of being able to turn average receivers into very good ones, simply because he knows what is going on in the game.
Polished pocket-passers can also excel pre-snap by deciding where to throw before the play even starts. This quick release style relieves pressure on the offensive line to block for too long as the QB gets the ball out of their hands with quickness.
Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger (later years especially) and Peyton Manning are other good examples.
The quarterback position has changed over the last few decades. In the past, prototypical Peyton Manning/Matt Ryan pocket-passers were the most popular types of quarterbacks in the NFL. That's not the case in the modern league.
Players who would've been running backs or receivers in previous years are now playing QB. Players as athletic as tight ends are now playing in the pocket. As the league changes, many of the QB’s listed above will have to make the transition from average game managers to polished pocket-passers. If they don't, their teams will move away from them.