As the Texans eye the 2023 NFL Draft, Davis Mills is down but not out
It's been a strange two seasons for Davis Mills in the NFL. Quarterbacking one of the most overlooked franchises in the NFL isn't easy, with every defeat further knocking a fragile confidence.
The Houston Texans finished the 2022 season with an almost inexplicable victory over the Indianapolis Colts. It was a win that cost them the first-overall pick in the 2023 draft. While the Chicago Bears were doubtless the real winners of that crazy AFC South showdown, Davis Mills may also benefit.
The Bears will likely trade the number-one pick for as much as they can get, as they will almost certainly go forward with Justin Fields under center. The Texans, however, are looking to the draft for a new quarterback. While Houston could send draft capital to Chicago for pole position, this feels unlikely.
As does trading for Lamar Jackson or Aaron Rodgers and going for Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't make total sense. These are targets for teams that are looking to win now and the Texans are rebuilding.
The Houston Texans have now met with all of the 4 top QB’s in the NFL Draft:
•Bryce Young
•C.J Stroud
•Anthony Richardson
•Will Levis
Very likely one of these 4 will be the Texans next QB and or selection with the number 2 overall pick in the draft https://t.co/Eo2YTyszGX
Whoever does get the first-overall pick is expected to take Bryce Young, which suggests CJ Stroud will become a Texan. Regardless of which QB they draft, this is bad news for Davis Mills. However, he may yet get another chance to prove himself.
Bringing in a rookie QB is highly unlikely to turn Houston into immediate Super Bowl contenders, for there are needs to address throughout their roster. With a new head coach and plenty of decent picks, they will be an interesting team to watch. But chucking a rookie quarterback into the fray could do more harm than good.
Blooding the rookies throughout their rebuilding roster will be a must, but being careful with their biggest investment is key. Mills was sacked 31 times in each of his two campaigns, and the franchise will test its offensive line before throwing a new man into the mix.
The Texans would be wise to tread carefully with their rookie's confidence. There's a fine line between learning from your mistakes and developing a complex. Many a QB has been ruined by a losing side and Houston will measure their new man's mettle carefully.
As such, don't be surprised if the Texans take their time introducing a new man under center and we may see Mills start the season. There is certainly precedence for patience with rookies, as seen by multiple quarterbacks currently in the league.
Rookie quarterbacks often sit behind veterans
Obviously, not every player will see the success of Patrick Mahomes, who sat behind Alex Smith for his first campaign. Nor will the new Texans QB necessarily turn into Aaron Rodgers, who was Brett Favre's understudy (not exactly willingly by either player) for years.
Kenny Pickett had to wait for his chance behind Mitch Trubisky for the Pittsburgh Steelers, as did Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder (Tennessee Titans and Atlanta Falcons, respectively). Jared Goff didn't make an appearance for the Los Angeles Rams until the franchise lost patience with Case Keenum midway through the 2016 season. Trey Lance also sat a season behind Jimmy Garoppolo.
The point here is that there is a good chance Houston will give Davis Mills opportunities this season. They may want to let their rookie find his feet in the NFL before naming him the starter, or ensure his head doesn't drop if things go wrong.
Looking at the last two seasons, Davis Mills is well worth keeping around for the Texans, especially on his rookie deal.
Davis Mills might not resurrect the Texans, but he can help them through a transitional phase
Houston have struggled for multiple seasons, with their last playoff appearance coming in the 2019 campaign. Deshaun Watson recorded an individually memorable 2020 campaign, but the Texans finished 4-12. With Watson sitting out a season before being traded to Cleveland, Houston had a gap to fill at quarterback.
Davis Mills was drafted by the franchise in the third round in 2021 behind several quarterbacks. This list includes Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Kyle Trask, and Kellen Mond.
Mills was taken 67th and not a whole lot was expected of him or the Texans. In his rookie season, he was something of a surprise package. Mills started the campaign behind Tyrod Taylor before taking the starting role (after an injury and some poor play by Taylor).
Mills threw for a respectable 2,664 yards and 16 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. He went for a disappointing 2-9 as a starter, but given how low expectations were for him and the Texans, Mills was given quite a lot of credit.
In the last campaign, Davis Mills threw for 3,118 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. There were concerns with his play and analysts were reluctant to give him a pass this time. Talks that maybe Mills could be the man under center long-term stopped, and as the losses piled up, people started to look to the 2023 draft.
That said, Mills had some decent highlights last season, especially in both games against the Colts. Quarterbacking the Texans was a thankless task in the 2022 campaign, and it could have gone a lot worse.
#WeAreTexansSome Big boy throws from Davis Mills week 1 vs Colts !
23-37 / 240 Yards/ 2TD 0ints / 98.9 PR
Left some plays out there but all in all had a solid game👊 #WeAreTexans https://t.co/govqbBU56c
Davis Mills could be very useful in getting the Texans through a transitional phase (as they look to go from early draft pickers to AFC South contenders). He's a cost-effective, willing, and serviceable option while the Texans prepare their new man for life in the NFL.
His performances certainly weren't awful and with his future on the line (along with a better roster), it's possible that he will improve markedly in the 2023 campaign.