Best Defenses to target and avoid in Fantasy Football Week 2 feat. Dallas Cowboys
Generally, you want a month of data to paint a picture of the new fantasy football landscape. However, it's never too early to start looking ahead and monitoring trends to help us make sound decisions for our fantasy lineups. We should do our due diligence weekly to find edges that could give us an advantage against our competition en route to fantasy football championships.
It's also important not to take a sledgehammer to our rosters after just one week of football. At this time last year, the Kansas City Chiefs were reeling from a season-opening loss to the upstart Detroit Lions — but it didn't stop them from winning the Super Bowl four months later. This article highlights some interesting data points using defensive DVOA from Week 1 and data points from 2023 to decipher the best pass defenses to target and avoid for upcoming matchups in fantasy football.
Best Defenses to target for Week 2 Fantasy Football
1] Arizona Cardinals (Defensive Pass DVOA 113.6)
When Jonathan Gannon took the job in Arizona the previous season, we all knew the challenges he would face competing in a loaded NFC West. Two of the NFL's brightest offensive minds were guaranteed to be on the schedule twice a year with Kyle Shanahan's San Francisco 49ers and Sean McVay's Los Angeles Rams in the division. So expectations needed some tempering in the desert as the Cardinals would need some time to come close to Gannon's top-10 defensive units in Philadelphia.
As expected, the Cardinals struggled in a transition year in 2023 as Gannon's defensive unit finished dead last in DVOA and gave up the second-highest completion percentage at 68.6%. The NFL's schedule makers didn't care about Arizona needing positive regression to start Gannon's second campaign as they flew the Cardinals cross-country to face perennial AFC contender Buffalo in New York. It's hard to be too critical of the Cardinals as it faced one of the most feared quarterbacks in the NFL - Josh Allen. Gannon's staff had five months to prepare for the perennial All-Pro, but it didn't matter. Allen torched Arizona through the air and on the ground for the best fantasy quarterback finish on the day with 33.2 points. He completed passes on 18 of his 25 dropbacks en route to two passing scores and scrambled for two more scores on the ground.
By the time the Cardinals boarded the plane back to Arizona, it had carried a staggering 113.6% defensive DVOA against the pass, the worst performance by any fantasy defense in Week 1.
Arizona's schedule won't let up for the next month as it has McVay, Shanahan, Ben Johnson, and former head coach Kliff Kingsbury all gunning for Gannon's porous passing unit. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford will visit the desert this weekend as the gunslinger turned in an incredibly efficient day against his former team in Detroit in Week 1. Stafford completed 34 throws on 51 dropbacks for 317 yards and a touchdown in a game where he lost star receiver Puka Nacua and two starting offensive linemen to injury. Stafford still completed 69.4% of his passes in a hostile environment, while the Detroit defense registered a 39.2% pressure rate on a patchwork offensive line. Fifteen completions went for first downs for Stafford - the most by any road quarterback in Week 1.
The Cardinals will remain the premier passing defense to target in fantasy football and DFS until Gannon lifts this unit to respectability. Fire up all pass catchers until proven otherwise — including your recent waiver wire claims in Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson, as they all will have favorable matchups against Starling Thomas V, Garrett Williams, and Sean Murphy-Bunting in the secondary.
2] Washington Commanders (Defensive Pass DVOA 38.9%)
There's no way to sugarcoat it; Washington was a disaster under Ron Rivera last year. The Commanders' defense finished dead last in the NFL with 518 points against - only the Cardinals were worse in defensive DVOA at 16% in 2023.
Washington eventually soured on Rivera and his staff, cleaned house, handing over the keys to former Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. Quinn's reputation as an uber-aggressive defensive mindset could reshape the culture in Washington. Still, the transition to a respectable unit appears to be the next step in its progression in 2024.
Washington's defense gave up seven 300-plus passing yards performances in 2023 and started this year giving up 29.7 fantasy points to Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay. Mayfield threw for four touchdowns while completing 80% of his passes on only 31 dropbacks. If it weren't for the Cardinals' performance against Allen, as mentioned above, the Commanders would've had the worst defensive DVOA against passers at 99.9%.
Washington will face some desperate quarterbacks looking for bounce-back games in Daniel Jones, Joe Burrow, and Deshaun Watson. Jones turned in the worst performance by a starting quarterback in Week 1 with a putrid 4.9 fantasy points against Minnesota at home. He completed 52.4% of his passes for 186 passing yards and two interceptions and could be playing for his job this early in the season. The next four games could be an excellent opportunity for Quinn to right the ship for the Commanders' secondary. Until then, fantasy managers and DFS players should monitor Washington closely as one of the best weekly matchups for pass catchers in fantasy football.
Fantasy Football Defenses: Watchlist
Carolina Panthers: The Panthers probably need to be featured as a defense to attack through the air. With the game in hand, the Saints pulled its proverbial foot off the gas and cruised to victory last week. Derek Carr finished with three touchdowns and 21.3 fantasy points while completing 82.6% of his attempts. The Panthers were only able to pressure Carr five times on 24 dropbacks.
New York Giants: The Giants were only able to generate five pressures on 25 Sam Darnold dropbacks while only blitzing 16% of the defensive snaps. Darnold checked it down eight times (!!!) in the game, which boosted Darnold's completion percentage to 79.2%. Anytime you lose to a quarterback like Darnold, you should be considered a defense to attack in the future.
Fantasy Pass Defenses to avoid in Week 2
1] Dallas Cowboys (Defensive Pass DVOA -53.6%)
Speaking of Dan Quinn, I bet he wishes he could've sneaked all-world linebacker Micah Parsons on the plane back to Washington, D.C. when he took the Commanders job. Quinn's defensive unit was one of the most feared last year in fantasy football, finishing fifth in defensive DVOA (-8.7%) in 2023 and sixth in pass defense (-3.3).
Although it was just one game, Dallas showed it had yet to skip a beat with veteran defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer replacing Quinn in Big D. The Cowboys turned in the best performance by a pass defense in DVOA (-65.4) against Deshaun Watson and the Browns. The Cowboys held Watson to 10.7 fantasy points and a 53.3% completion percentage last Sunday. In 51 dropbacks from Watson, Dallas registered six sacks, 21 pressures, and 17 quarterback hits — all league highs in Week 1. With the defensive front getting after it, the stingy Cowboys shut down all the receiving threats in Cleveland. Twelve of Watson's 45 pass attempts registered as check-downs, so it was no surprise tight end David Njoku led the Browns in receiving with four catches and 44 scoreless yards. Despite playing 95.7% of the offensive snaps, Pro Bowl receiver Amari Cooper turned nine targets into two catches and 16 yards.
You might want to think twice when thrusting waiver wire addition Rashid Shaheed in your lineups this week. Shaheed led the Saints in receiving in Week 1 thanks to a 59-yard bomb from quarterback Derek Carr in a 47-10 blowout against Carolina. The Saints will go from one of the worst passing defenses in Carolina to an elite matchup in Dallas — avoid them at all costs.
2] Cleveland Browns [Defensive Pass DVOA -2.3%]
With all the attention on the ineptitude of Deshaun Watson, the Cleveland Browns defense quietly turned in a decent performance in a blowout against Dallas in Week 1. They finished second in defensive DVOA (-20.7%) and third in pass defense (-24.3%) the previous season. Reigning defensive MVP Myles Garrett continued to be a force in the trenches as the Browns finished with 16 pressures and three sacks on Dak Prescott's 51 dropbacks. A 45.7% pressure rate (1st in the NFL in Week 1) while only blitzing on 17.1% of the defensive snaps is exceptional in today's NFL.
Unfortunately for Cleveland, Prescott burned them on one of the times the Browns did blitz in the first quarter with a touchdown pass to Brandin Cooks. The Browns' defense only allowed 10.7 fantasy points to Prescott on the day and held him to a 59.4% completion percentage. That's impressive, considering five of Prescott's 19 completions came on checkdowns. With the Cowboys game now behind them, the Browns have an excellent schedule for the next four games.
Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence finished with 11.3 fantasy points against Miami and only had 12 completions in a loss. Lawrence got sacked three times while feeling eight pressures on 24 dropbacks. The Dolphins were 19th in defensive DVOA last year, so Cleveland will be much more challenging this weekend. With the Giants, Raiders, and Commanders coming up on the schedule, make sure Cleveland's defense isn't available on the waiver wire if a fantasy manager overreacted after just one week of action.
Fantasy Football Defenses: Watchlist
Seattle Seahawks: New head coach Mike Macdonald had an impressive debut in front of the 12s. In Week 1, the Seahawks finished second in defensive DVOA against the pass (-56.2%). Rookie quarterback Bo Nix made his NFL debut and struggled on the road, which may help explain this opening-week ranking. The Seahawks can do it again on the road in New England, but the big litmus test will be in Week 3 against Miami at home.
Minnesota Vikings: Anytime you get five sacks and 17 pressures, you should be on the watchlist. The Vikings were second behind the Cowboys in quarterback hits, with 12 on Daniel Jones last Sunday. The Giants are not an elite offense by any stretch of the imagination, but still, Minnesota produced impressive numbers for a third-ranked DVOA (-50.2%) pass defense in Week 1. Let's pump the brakes and watch this unit take on a much better San Francisco offense this weekend.