Big names to fade in fantasy football in 2024 feat. Davante Adams
This time of the year is all about fantasy football draft opinions. Players to draft, players to build around, players you can’t leave your draft without—so much talk of sleepers and busts that your head spins. Fantasy drafts don’t need to be difficult. We all have eyes. We can see the good players. It’s not rocket science to think drafting Patrick Mahomes or Tyreek Hill is a good idea.
But what about the players who we shouldn’t draft? That takes a little more in-depth thought. Let me explain the players I’m not drafting at their current average draft positions (ADP). Note, at some point everyone is a value. If these players fell three rounds past ADP, I’d definitely consider them.
Top players to fade in fantasy football this year
1] Zay Flowers (WR, BAL)
I don’t leave any drafts with this second-year Ravens receiver. To me, he’s miscast as a top option in a low-volume passing game. He barely runs downfield anymore, which was why we loved him coming out of Boston College. His average depth of target (aDot) was 8.9. That ranks 71st out of all players with at least 50 targets. Not good.
With Mark Andrews back and fully healthy, he’ll assume the role of alpha dog in the Ravens' pass game. The word is the Ravens want to include their other TE, Isaiah Likely, in more offensive sets. This “12 Personnel” package clogs the middle of the field even more, where Flowers likes to operate.
I’d much rather take shots at Tank Dell, Amari Cooper, and George Pickens, who all get drafted after Flowers in their current ADP.
2] Davante Adams (WR, LV)
I was out on Adams last year, and it paid off. While he finished as WR 11 in total points, he actually hurt you most weeks. His season-long numbers were massively skewed by two blowup weeks of 42.2 in Week 3 and 37.6 in Week 17. Now you could say, hey, I’ll take a guy who can score over 30 points on my team. Good, you can have him.
Last year, Adams needed 20-plus targets in those games I just referenced to put up those points. Those are incredible outliers, and that sort of point explosion can’t be counted on. I look more at his five weeks under 10 PPR points and ten weeks under 15 PPR points. So, a guy you’re drafting in round two is giving you over 15 PPR points just seven times. No thanks. Compare that to Mike Evans, who gets drafted two rounds later and scored over 15 points ten times last year.
Adams has been a great player, but his quarterback situation is awful. Gardner Minshew shouldn’t be starting games in the NFL. Add in the slow pace of play, and Las Vegas will want to be a run-heavy team under head coach Antonio Pierce.
Per Establish The Run’s Pat Thorman, new Raiders play caller Luke Getsy had his Bears offenses ranked in the bottom two of situation-neutral pass rate over the past two seasons. Easy translation: they don’t want to throw the ball. I wouldn’t be surprised if Adams requests a trade by midseason. Avoid this headache.
3] Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
This has nothing to do with Kelce, the player, but more so the cost. There’s no chance I’m spending a second-round pick (ADP 24 on ESPN) on a Tight End this year. The position is just too deep. I’m going to draft Running Backs and Wide Receivers in the area where Kelce comes off the board.
Per ESPN’s ADP, you would be passing up options like Chris Olave, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Pittman, and De’Von Achane to select Kelce at the two-three turn. That’s just not happening on my watch.
While Kelce is still elite, he’s no longer the only TE who can put up high-end numbers. Last season, 12 TEs averaged double-digit fantasy points on the season. The last of which was only four points per game off Kelce’s mark. That was Dalton Schultz.
He’s currently a 12th-round pick on ESPN platforms. So you can see the depth at the TE position and exactly why I’m out on Kelce in the late second round. Snag Evan Engram or Jake Ferguson eight rounds into your draft instead.