Biggest remaining needs for each AFC team heading the 2023 NFL season
It's time to talk about the AFC. We went through the NFC in depth last week, going through the four divisions and pointing out one area each team could/should still be looking to address. Today we will run through the 16 franchises on the opposite side of the table and explain how I was led to my choice for each of them.
Once again, this can be a proven starter, specific role player or general depth at a position, depending on what the state of the roster looks like and how ready they are to compete. However, since you’re not going to find a franchise quarterback or star pass-rusher at this point of the calendar year, I wanted to stay realistic here and point out an asset they could actually still acquire via trade or among the few veteran names available on the open market.
If you haven’t done so yet, make sure to also check out my divisional draft and roster review series, where I broke down every single pick made by all 32 teams, laid out what role they would fulfill for their new squad and discussed the classes as well as their approach to roster construction as a whole.
So, let’s get into it:
Baltimore Ravens, AFC North – Hybrid safety
Looking at the Ravens' defense last season, they improved from 28th in EPA per play across the first eight weeks all the way to number five (after they traded for All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith and started moving around their personnel a little bit).
Kyle Hamilton was by far at his best when he was a designated nickel as a rookie. Looking at PFF’s metrics through the first seven games compared to the final ten – from which point onwards he spent the majority of snaps in the slot – his average grade improved from 65.6 to 72.4, ending the season on a couple of elite ones (although somehow his final grade was at 87.6). His length to crowd the underneath passing windows and defeat blockers from that spot was a major plus.
Considering that, I was very surprised to see Baltimore basically gift one of the most underrated safeties in the league in Chuck Clark to the Jets for a 2024 seventh-round pick. The reasoning behind it was that the veteran was in the final year of his contract.
Marcus Williams was a tremendous addition this past season, outside of missing seven games with a hand injury, as a rangy ball-hawk. However, now you’re looking at Brandon Stephens having to step up from a solid rotational piece to starting at nickel potentially, while last year’s fourth-rounder Damarion Williams really struggled when asked to fill in there.
If they did want to keep Hamilton down low, Geno Stone with less than 700 snaps through his first three years (even though his workload and quality of play have gradually increased) and Ar’Darius Washington (with a measly 32 snaps across his two seasons in Baltimore) would be the designated options at safety.
So I think another piece with the versatility to be moved around in the secondary and the mental fortitude to operate in a split-safety-based system would be a welcome addition.
Cincinnati Bengals, AFC North – In-line tight end
This is a position that has certainly benefitted in Cincinnati from being part of an offense that features the best trio of receivers league-wide and one of the top-tier quarterbacks.
C.J. Uzomah and Hayden Hurst have averaged over 450 receiving yards these past two seasons as the clear number four options in that passing attack, but I’d say those were more useful players than what they have at their disposal heading into 2023.
The Bengals did sign Irv Smith Jr. for this year at $1.75 million, after the Vikings let his rookie contract run out (having traded for T.J. Hockenson mid-way through last season once Irv got hurt and they really wanted to upgrade anyway).
Drew Sample – who Cincy somewhat surprisingly drafted in the second round back in 2019 – will be back for the final year of his rookie deal, after missing all but two games this past season. Yet, he’s been almost a pure blocker for this group, with a career mark of just 0.75 yards per route run.
Mitchell Wilcox fulfilled basically that same role in his place, as more of an extra offensive tackle when they went to two-TE sets, before they embraced the identity of much more of a spread-out 11-personnel team. He’s now gone, while Devin Asiasi is a fringe roster candidate by NFL standards.
The idea of getting their collection of Chase, Higgins and Boyd out there at the same time is still based on being multiple in the ways they can attack defenses, indicated by the fifth-best rushing success rate league-wide (45.1%) from week five onwards, when we saw that shift in personnel usage. Since they don’t have a tight end on the roster who’s been a valuable blocker AND receiver, that’s a position they should still be looking for opportunities to upgrade at.
Cleveland Browns, AFC North – Backup cornerback
These Browns have quietly had a really strong offseason, making several key under-the-radar signings and putting together one of the better draft classes, considering the capital available.
Along with adding more weapons to what was a fairly shallow receiving corp, acquiring Elijah Moore from the Jets for a day-two pick swap and drafting Tennessee’s Cedric Tillman 74th overall, they brought in some beef. A couple of legit shade nose-tackles should help boost one of the softer run defenses in the league and they addressed that edge spot across from Myles Garrett through multiple avenues.
Therefore, as I look through their starting 22 and even their depth in the trenches and now also WR, there isn’t much to worry about. A position group that could become an issue in case of injury is the cornerback room. They had already invested a couple of first-round picks and found themselves a potential gem early in the third round in last year’s draft with Martin Emerson, to form an excellent starting trio.
I believe they made a good value pick in the top 150 this past April in Cameron Mitchell from Northwestern, who could ultimately back up all three spots or just slide in as the fourth man, along with doing some shuffling around. However, that’s quite a bit to ask of the rookie to immediately perform and really beyond that, there’s not much they can rely upon, between Mike Ford, A.J. Green III, Thomas Graham Jr. and Chris Westry.
Despite being part of teams that weren’t rich on corners, Mike Ford has combined for basically the same amount of snaps over the last four years across three different cities as he had as a rookie (slightly above 300) and the others have combined for just 659 snaps over the past two seasons. Considering they mostly performed up to those expectations, I’d define all of them more so as fringe roster candidates.
Pittsburgh Steelers, AFC North – Inside linebacker
The Steelers may be the least interesting team in the AFC North for general NFL fans and they’re currently the betting favorite to finish fourth. But looking at how they addressed their areas of need this offseason, they should be a lot more solid.
With at least two new starters on the O-line most likely and quality depth behind it, top-50 pick Keeanu Benton (Wisconsin) being another worker-bee to firm up the interior D-line and a nice combination of youth and experience at cornerback, all three of those position groups clearly look better on paper.
Putting together what I believe was one of the top three draft classes across the league was a major factor in that. The one unit on the team I’m still pretty worried about is the second level of their defense.
They swapped out the tandem of Myles Jack and Devin Bush, whose heads were spinning quite a bit last year as I watched them try to ID keys and put themselves in the according position on tape, for maybe a little more solid, but also not overly inspiring duo of Cole Holcomb and Elandon Roberts.
The former of those has graded between 56 and 67 by PFF’s metrics in each of his four seasons in Washington. He’s missed less than seven percent of his tackling attempts over the latter two of those, whilst playing 99% of snaps across the 23 games he’s been available for, but he’s not been a plus as a coverage- or pressure-player on passing downs.
Meanwhile, Elandon Roberts is this thumping inside backer, who has helped the Dolphins get to third-and-long, after being brought over from New England by his former DC and then HC Brian Flores, but once they got to those situations, this guy was consistently subbed off the field.
So while I would like them to bring in a more rangy option to that group, I think we probably see them move down Keanu Neal as a dime backer in passing situations.