Biggest steals from the 2023 NFL Draft
Now that the 2023 NFL Draft is in the books, I decided to outline some of my favorite value selections throughout the weekend.
I will judge the names selected based on my personal rankings in correlation with consensus boards and looking at who was still available or how these picks fit into the overall picture of the draft.
Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon – 17th overall to the Patriots
To signal how shocked I was that Gonzo lasted as long as he did – once Seattle drafted Illinois cornerback Devon Witherspoon fifth overall, I thought the Lions might draft the other corner I had inside my top-ten overall prospects. The Oregon DB has a prototype size and length, 4.38 speed, is very fluid and is a reliable tackler – plus, he hasn’t even turned 21 years old.
Such guys typically don’t make it outside the first half of Round 1. The only reason I can imagine he made it so far is that people see him as more of an athlete and hasn’t shown “that dawg” you like to see from that position, which is a bit silly.
Considering the Patriots were able to pick up an extra fourth-rounder by moving back three spots with the Steelers and that the Commanders picked another corner I had way further down the board in Mississippi State’s Emmanuel Forbes, this was a great value pick for them.
O’Cyrus Torrence, IOL, Florida – 59th overall to the Bills
Whenever you’re able to get the best player at a position in the draft at the end of the second round, you’re doing something right. After the Bills had already secured themselves my TE1 Dalton Kincaid 25th overall (having moved up two spots), they got the massive Gator guard a full round later – when I thought they could have easily gone that way late in the first.
Torrence looks like he was built in the lab for that position, with massive hands to take control of and a lot of power in his lower half to move bodies in the run game, along with the sturdy anchor to absorb force, and once he fits those hands inside the frame of rushers, they’re typically not going away anymore.
The two players he reminded me of were Brandon Brooks and Mike Iupati – and he was drafted right in between where those guys went. He’s a perfect addition for a Bills interior O-line that needed an ass-kicker.
Daiyan Henley, LB, Washington State – 85th overall to the Chargers
Even though Henley wasn’t quite my number one linebacker, I did have him as my top-tier pick at the position – along with Iowa’s Jack Campbell and Arkansas’ Drew Sanders. All three have pretty different player profiles and I understand him being the last one taken among those, but considering Henley went 67(!) spots later than Campbell, that’s pretty wild.
To me, there wasn’t a backer in this class with the type of easy movement skills like this young man from Wazzu, where his ability to gain depth, change directions and drive on routes still looks more like a safety, which is what he originally started as, along with playing some wide receiver, after being recruited as a quarterback.
Furthermore, not only does he have the suddenness to evade blockers but is also willing to charge into has missed only five of 111 tackling attempts this past season.
I think what shows us that he went later than expected is that after him going as the third true off-ball linebacker (depending on if you count Sacramento State’s Marte Mapu as a big nickel/safety instead), we saw three more come off the board across the next six picks – teams were sort of just waiting on the position.
Adetomiwa Adebawore, IDL, Northwestern – 110th overall to the Colts
I still haven’t heard any real medical concerns for Ade. So I’m just going to have to assume the NFL either didn’t like him in meetings or they’re just kind of hypocritical. Remember that guy, Travon Walker, who blew up the combine and ended up ascending all the way to being the first overall pick in last year’s draft out of Georgia? Well, here we have somebody who has slightly bested him in every single category – despite packing an extra ten pounds!
I get that Adebawore’s athleticism is a lot more impressive than his production – once again kind of reminiscent of Walker, but I think even purely based on tape, there’s no way he should have made it out of day two. I had him going late in the first round in my last few mock drafts. He’s more than just an athlete – he packs a ton of shock in his hands, despite only being 6’2” he does have 34-inch arms to lock out in the run game.
He can play strong-side D-end or three-technique in an even front and during Senior Bowl week, he showed a great combination of winning with power and cornering his rushes. Unless there’s some factor I’m not aware of, this is just teams not knowing exactly where to line him up.
Kyu Blu Kelly, CB, Stanford – 157th overall to the Ravens
We’ve now moved on to the fifth round, where a couple of my favorite DBs finally got snatched up and the first of them, who I believe made enough money for himself to right around the third-/fourth-round range, is from Stanford.
KBK has some of the soundest press technique you will find in this class, with tremendous anticipation, timing and placement of his hands to deny easy releases off the line and stay sticky throughout the route in man. On top of that, he has some of the best awareness in zones that I’ve seen among these corners, understanding when to fall off or pick up crossers working his way.
The reason I believed the league wouldn’t be quite as high on him – he only has modest recovery speed and he didn’t pick off any passes since early in 2021. Nevertheless, this is way later than he should have gone. Kelly was the 78th overall prospect on my personal big board.
Antonio Johnson, SAF/NB, Texas A&M – 160th overall to the Jaguars
The other fifth-round DB I don't think should have fallen this far was my number three safety prospect. I understand that I’m higher on Johnson than consensus, but he was still projected to be a fringe second-to-third-rounder.
I’m maybe a little less shocked than with some of these other names since I saw an avenue for the NFL deciding to pass on him a few times – he was exclusively played in the slot, didn’t have a ton of ball-production and his explosive testing at the combine was pretty underwhelming.
You combine that with his best tape being from 2021 when the Aggies were a much more competitive program, and the general devaluation of this safety class, I could see a way of him falling towards the end of day two, but this is kind of nuts to me.
Johnson displays tremendous route anticipation, spatial awareness and understanding of how to play to his leverage, he consistently was able to defeat blockers in the slot and is a very physical tackler. The Jaguars might have found their starting nickel here, who can move inside as a dimer backer on longer downs.
A.T. Perry, WR, Wake Forest – 195th overall to the Saints & Xavier Hutchinson, WR, Iowa State – 205th overall to the Texans
I packaged together two sixth-round receivers here because they have somewhat similar player profiles and fit a certain theme here I wanted to discuss. This was a historically small WR class. Notably, 11 of the 17 guys selected across the first four rounds weighed in at 185 or less – in significant fashion to some degree.
It perhaps makes sense, because grading the tape, the majority of the top prospects were undersized. With that being said, we did see names like TCU’s Quentin Johnston, Ole Miss’ Jonathan Mingo and SMU’s Rashee Rice – more plus-sized guys – get pushed up in the process because of that.
That’s what it so curious to me, as to how two of my top-ten wide receivers fell all the way to the sixth round. Perry does have a little bit of a drop issue and may not be a real burner, but he ran a 4.47, is a meticulous route-runner in the way he sets up defenders with his body language, and is an insane above-the-rim catcher.
Meanwhile, Hutchinson ran slightly slower (4.53) but also has a slightly more filled-out frame, he’s great at creating initial angles for the ball to arrive and he catches everything thrown his way, even with defenders draped on his back.
Dante Stills, IDL, West Virginia – 213th overall to the Cardinals
Let’s get to one of my draft crushes. I had Dante Stills as a top-ten interior defensive lineman and mentioned him as one of “my guys”. I just don’t understand how he was so underrated throughout the process and how he ended up going this late.
This is another one where I’m not as shocked to see it because this is right where he was projected to go. But somebody explain this to me – this guy had elite pressure numbers among interior guys (30 across 334 pass-rush snaps, with a 14.2% win rate), his 40, broad jump and three-cone were in the 79th percentile or better, was an extremely consistent standout for WVU all five seasons and then he went to the Shrine Bowl and kicked butt all week long.
The only real concern I see is not knowing where he’s best deployed, with sort of a tweener body, but he has played all over the line in college, can play stack-and-shed or win the game, and then win from different alignments in passing situations.
Zach Evans, RB, Ole Miss – 215th overall to the Rams
Even crazier in terms of the discrepancy I see between where the player actually ended up being drafted and where I personally had them, Evans is right up there in terms of guys without a legit red flag medically that I’m aware of.
Evans did miss some time these last two seasons with turf toe and a hip injury, but no structural damage, and while you always hear the story about him being suspended for the state championship in high school and a weird recruiting process because of it, the TCU coaches praised him for his “academic excellence and his positive impact at TCU and the local community” and there was never an issue at Ole Miss.
I feel like this may be old heads writing him off prematurely. Let’s not forget that this was the number one recruit in the entire state of Texas and I would argue he’s as talented as any back in this draft not named Bijan Robinson.
He doesn’t have as many highlights because he’s a mature decision-maker between tackles, but he has great start-stop quickness, packs a ton of power once he gains momentum, has insane contact balance and the speed to finish long runs for six. He was my RB4 in this entire class and he ended up being number 15 off the board.
Anthony Johnson Jr., SAF, Iowa State – 242nd overall to the Packers
We finish up this portion of steals with one more number inside my top-ten rankings for his position. The two positions the Packers really needed to target based on the state of the roster were tight-end and safety.
They addressed the first of those with a couple of day-two picks in Oregon State’s Luke Musgrave and South Dakota State’s Tucker Kraft. The latter they didn’t target until the final 20 picks of the weekend. Well, what if I told you they still have one, who I believe has starting potential? I know with the lack of draft capital invested, it’s a steep climb for a guy like this to see meaningful playing time early on, but Johnson was one of my favorite gems this year.
A former corner, this guy picked up the details of the safety position remarkably quickly, while still having room to grow. He shows great football IQ in match-zone coverage – which the Packers love to run – his 32-inch arms help him crowd the catch-point effectively, he races upfield in a hurry against the run and doesn’t shy away from major collisions at all. He’s just closer to an average athlete.
Other steals:
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah – 25th overall to the Bills
Brian Branch, SAF, Alabama – 45th overall to the Lions
John Michael Schmitz, IOL, Minnesota – 57th overall to the Giants
Sydney Brown, SAF, Illinois – 66th overall to the Eagles
Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia – 105th overall to the Eagles
Nick Herbig, EDGE/LB, Wisconsin – 132nd overall to the Steelers
Jammie Robinson, SAF, Florida State – 145th overall to the Panthers
Henry To’o To’o, LB, Alabama – 167th overall to the Texans
Chris Smith II, SAF, Georgia – 170th overall to the Raiders
Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland – 186th overall to the Titans
Luke Wypler, IOL, Ohio State – 190th overall to the Browns
Zack Kuntz, TE, Old Dominion – 220th overall to the Jets
Jason Taylor II, SAF, Oklahoma State – 234th overall to the Rams
Cory Trice Jr., CB, Purdue – 241st overall to the Steelers
Desjuan Johnson, EDGE/IDL, Toledo – 259th overall to the Rams
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