Bijan Robinson 2023 fantasy outlook: How much impact will Falcons RB have in rookie season?
Ironically, rookie Bijan Robinson will earn the most money among running backs this year before playing an NFL game.
He will rake in more cash than Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Nick Chubb. While most of his 2023 earnings will be from his signing bonus, being number one presents a tall order for the first-round pick.
Considering the running back market’s state, he will be pressured to deliver from the get-go. If he does well in his rookie season, general managers might put a premium on getting running backs with comparable skill sets.
In return, the average values for players in the position could increase. Delivering fantastic outputs also bodes well for his fantasy football stock.
No one knows how Bijan Robinson’s rookie season will unfold. However, he has been flashing moments of brilliance during the Atlanta Falcons training camp. Aside from breaking tackles, he also creates separation during one-on-one matchups against linebackers and defensive backs.
If he can flash the same attributes during the regular season, Falcons fans and Robinson’s fantasy football owners are in for a treat.
Bijan Robinson’s fantasy football value as a running back
Maintaining his stellar performance at training camp might lead head coach Arthur Smith to declare him their three-down back. He has the speed to burst through gaps that his blockers will create.
More importantly, he can force defenders to miss, as proven by the 104 forced missed tackles in his final year at Texas. Robinson can use his speed to outmatch opponents and his power to break through narrow slots.
Bijan Robinson will join a team that ranked third in rushing yards per game (159.9) last season. They already have Tyler Allgeier, who had 1,035 yards and three touchdowns last year. The Falcons also have versatile running back Cordarrelle Patterson, which they will line up as a wide receiver on certain plays.
Expect high production from Robinson if he takes over from Allgeier. Running a run-pass option-heavy offense will simplify the game for second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder. It’s the Falcons’ best chance to succeed, considering they didn’t have a 1,000-yard receiver last season.
In effect, Robinson will get several opportunities to rack up rushing yards and touchdowns. A 300-carry season is attainable for him, given that the Falcons ranked first in early run-down rate, per Fantasy Pros. Getting that many chances should translate into a 1,300-yard season for Robinson.
Robinson’s value as a pass catcher
While the Falcons will primarily use him as a running back, Robinson’s versatility also allows him to impact Atlanta’s passing game.
With Smith having players like Bijan Robinson and Cordarrelle Patterson in their lineup, they can draw limitless formations to fool opponents constantly.
They may line up in traditional running plays but flip the script by throwing a pass downfield. The Falcons can also take advantage of Robinson’s speed in short to intermediate routes against linebackers or defensive linemen.
Last year, Robinson ranked third in yards per catch (18.5) among collegiate running backs. That’s an asset the Falcons will exploit, giving Robinson more chances to rack yards through the air.
However, seeing him unseat Drake London or Kyle Pitts as the Falcons’ best receiver is difficult. Robinson’s presence, though, may bring favorable coverages for London and Pitts. Getting more open looks should lead to an increase in their numbers from last year.
Meanwhile, Bijan Robinson averaged 268 receiving yards and 2.6 touchdowns in three seasons at Texas. Now with the Falcons, he could have around 400 receiving yards and four touchdowns in his rookie year.
Bijan Robinson’s overall fantasy football stock
Robinson is a threat, regardless of where Smith puts him on offense. He can barrel through or skim past defenders, thanks to his combination of size and speed. He also has excellent hands to corral the passes thrown at him.
Based on projections alone, Bijan Robinson is worthy of a first-round fantasy football pick. The upside is so compelling that fantasy owners might be scratching their heads if they missed out on him.
Likewise, Pro Football Focus' preseason rankings have the Falcons' offensive line in the top ten. Lining up behind those men gives Robinson a headstart.
Robinson will likely be taken after McCaffrey and Chubb, two of the more consistent running backs in the NFL. Still, his production could spell the difference between winning and losing weekly head-to-head fantasy football matchups.