Boom or Bust? Predicting the outcome of all 32 first-round draft picks
Expectations for rookies selected in the first round of the NFL Draft are extremely high. Oftentimes, as a first-rounder, you're expected to come in and start right away. Sometimes that works out, sometimes that doesn't.
The NFL Draft is a crapshoot. Every year there are first-round picks who will alter a franchise for the better, and every year there are first-round busts who make a franchise look silly for selecting them that high.
With the 2021 season right around the corner, 32 first-round rookies are gearing up to play in their first-ever NFL games. Will the NFL gods smile on them? Or will they go right the other way?
Predicting the outcome of all 32 first-round draft picks
Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB
Trevor Lawrence isn't your average rookie quarterback. He's got elite traits and looks ready to play right away. The Jacksonville Jaguars may not win a lot of games in 2021, but Lawrence will play extremely well and prove he's the future franchise quarterback.
New York Jets - Zach Wilson, QB
Unlike Lawrence, Zach Wilson will have a bit of a learning curve coming into the NFL.
It's fair to expect Wilson will show flashes of his brilliance here and there throughout the 2021 season, but he's going to struggle for a bit as he gets used to NFL play.
San Francisco 49ers - Trey Lance, QB
Trey Lance couldn't have asked to land in a better place in the draft than with the San Francisco 49ers. Even if Lance doesn't start right away, he'll have a full year to sit behind Jimmy G and learn the 49ers' offense.
Lance has a strong arm, high football intelligence and he doesn't turn the ball over. All those qualities combined with a Kyle Shanahan-run offense will make for years and years of success. With the 49ers, Lance is going to turn into a very productive quarterback for the next decade.
Atlanta Falcons - Kyle Pitts, TE
If it weren't for positional value, Kyle Pitts would have been the first or second pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Pitts is a generational tight-end prospect. He's a TE with the skills of a high-level wide receiver.
As always for a rookie, the situation they're drafted in matters, and Pitts was drafted into a favorable situation. Matt Ryan is still a very productive quarterback. Pitts feels like the surest bet of all the draft picks to succeed in the NFL.
Cincinnati Bengals - Ja'Marr Chase, WR
Ja'Marr Chase got the Joe Burrow reunion he was hoping for when he was drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals in the 2021 NFL Draft. Chase has great hands and he's elite after the catch.
Like Pitts, Chase was drafted into a favorable situation. It's easy to picture Chase having tremendous success with the Bengals right off the bat.
Miami Dolphins - Jaylen Waddle, WR
The situation Jaylen Waddle finds himself in is a bit different than that of Pitts and Chase. Waddle's talent is undeniable. He's got great speed, he can stretch the field, and he's elusive with the football.
The problem is, Tua Tagovailoa struggled in his rookie season and it's unclear if he'll be able to take advantage of Waddle's deep threat ability. Waddle will be a good NFL wide receiver but his year-one production may not equal that of Pitts and Chase.
Detriot Lions - Penei Sewell, OT
The Detriot Lions got themselves the best offensive tackle prospect in the draft in Penei Sewell. Sewell will step in and immediately start at one of the tackle spots for the Lions. Sewell is primed to have a 15-year career with multiple Pro Bowl appearances.
Carolina Panthers - Jaycee Horn, CB
Jaycee Horn is an extremely fun player to watch. He's physical, tough, and he can eliminate the best wide receiver on an opposing team. The only red flag with Horn in the NFL is just how much physicality can he get away with.
Horn may struggle a bit in year one with penalties. How he adapts to the NFL's less physical style of play will ultimately determine how successful he is in his career.
Denver Broncos - Patrick Surtain II, CB
Patrick Surtain II is as polished as a rookie corner can get. Playing under Nick Saban made him very technically sound. That said, Surtain likely won't start in his rookie season.
Even though Surtain will play less than some other rookies, his career outlook is very bright.
Philadelphia Eagles - DeVonta Smith, WR
Eagles draft pick DeVonta Smith has more bust potential than Chase and Waddle. A big reason for that is his small stature. Smith only weighs 170 pounds.
The good news is Smith is unbelievable at going up and catching a jump ball. Plus, he's a good route runner. Smith may become an elite receiver, but there is room for concern.
Chicago Bears - Justin Fields, QB
All draft season long we heard about the pressing concerns when it came to Justin Fields. Those concerns were probably a bit inflated, but clearly, some NFL teams took notice of his struggles.
Even so, Fields has a bright future in the NFL. He doesn't turn the ball over and he's an accurate passer. Those types of quarterbacks usually succeed in the NFL.
Dallas Cowboys - Micah Parsons, LB
The Dallas Cowboys took a bit of a risk selecting Micah Parson in the draft. Parsons had off-the-field concerns throughout the draft process.
Parsons will get to play right away, but there is some bust potential here. He isn't great in pass coverage and he may not be as polished coming out of college, considering he hasn't played since 2019.
Los Angeles Chargers - Rashawn Slater, OT
The Chargers got themselves a very versatile tackle in Rashawn Slater. Slater can be a tackle or a guard. He'll protect Justin Herbert for the next decade. He feels like a prospect who will live up to the draft hype.
New York Jets - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL
Alijah Vera-Tucker was an interesting choice for the New York Jets, considering they had to trade up to draft him. Vera-Tucker is likely a guard at the NFL level. He's not on the same level as Sewell and Slater as a prospect.
Vera-Tucker should still be a solid guard in the NFL, but he may not live up to the 14th overall draft selection.
New England Patriots: Mac Jones, QB
The New England Patriots made waves when they drafted Mac Jones. Jones won't play this season unless he beats out Cam Newton, but he fits the New England offense perfectly.
He may never be a superstar, but Jones will be an average to above-average starting NFL quarterback.
Arizona Cardinals - Zaven Collins, LB
Zaven Collins is a massive linebacker who also happens to have legitimate speed. Assuming the Cardinals utilize him properly, he'll be a future game-changer in the Cardinals' defense.
It should be noted that he may have some developing to do considering the competition level he faced in college wasn't high-level.
Las Vegas Raiders - Alex Leatherwood, OL
Alex Leatherwood was a bit of a surprise draft pick by the Las Vegas Raiders. That being said, Leatherwood was an excellent college player. He's also an exceptionally strong man.
The problem is he's not as athletic as the average tackle. Leatherwood may get exposed by quicker edge rushers. Because of this, his bust potential is pretty high.
Miami Dolphins - Jaelen Phillips, EDGE
The road to a successful career for Jaelen Phillips is simple: Stay healthy. Phillips's concussion concerns are the only reason he was selected this late in the first round of the draft.
Phillips is going to be a powerful edge rusher for many years in Miami.
Washington Football Team - Jamin Davis, LB
The Washington Football Team got quicker and more athletic at linebacker with the selection of Jamin Davis. Davis is somewhat raw, so if he struggles in year one, don't be surprised.
What makes his career promising is just how many physical tools he has. Davis is very likely to turn into a productive NFL linebacker as he gets more and more experience.
New York Giants - Kadarius Toney, WR
Kadarius Toney has elite qualities but also serious concerns. Toney is fast and he's an instant highlight with the ball in his hand. On the flip side, he's not an experienced route runner. Could that come with time? Sure, but it's no certainty.
Toney needs to improve on the technical side of things, otherwise he'll be a bust of a draft pick.
Indianapolis Colts - Kwity Paye, EDGE
Like most edge rushers in the 2021 draft class, Kwity Paye is an athletic freak who lacks proven production.
The Indianapolis Colts are a good spot for Paye to develop, though. His first few years may be filled with ups and downs, but his size and athletic talent alone will help him make plays. If he's able to develop properly, he could become the top edge rusher from this class.
Tennessee Titans - Caleb Farley, CB
Caleb Farley is excellent when he's on the football field. He would have been a top-ten draft pick if not for the concerns over his back. Unfortunately, those are very real and serious concerns, thus making his bust potential extremely high.
There is a possibility of Farley never truly managing able to stay healthy.
Minnesota Vikings - Christian Darrisaw, OT
Christian Darrisaw was an excellent draft pick by the Minnesota Vikings. He's powerful, he has good technique, and he's ready to play NOW.
Darrisaw is going to be a stud in this league.
Pittsburg Steelers - Najee Harris, RB
Najee Harris may never become the best running back in the NFL, but he's going to be a starting-caliber player for a while. The reasoning is simple: Harris can run and catch the ball at high levels. A running back who can do both is a perfect weapon in the NFL at the moment.
Jacksonville Jaguars - Travis Etienne, RB
Travis Etienne receives a similar evaluation to Harris. Etienne can catch and run the ball at a high level, giving him a strong chance to stick around in the league. The slight difference is the situation Etienne finds himself in. Jacksonville already has a lead back in James Robinson, whereas in Pittsburgh, the lead back will be Najee Harris.
Because of this, Etienne may not put up huge numbers his first couple of seasons.
Cleveland Browns - Greg Newsome II, CB
Greg Newsome II was one of the biggest draft risers due to his play in the 2020 season. He's not a freak athlete like the other corners in the draft, but he's technically sound and he's consistently in the right postion to make a play on the ball.
Newsome isn't likely to be a number one lockdown corner, but he does look like he'll be a strong number two corner in the NFL for many, many years.
Baltimore Ravens - Rashod Bateman, WR
Rashod Bateman got criticized a lot due to his lack of speed, but all Bateman has done throughout his career is get open with an elite release and exceptional route running. He was an outstanding draft pick for the Baltimore Ravens
Bateman won't get a ton of targets because of the run-first system he'll play in, but he'll be a good NFL receiver.
New Orleans Saints - Payton Turner, EDGE
Unfortunately for Payton Turner, his bust potential is rather high. He's a raw player and he didn't have a ton of production in college.
That said, it wouldn't be shocking to see him turn into a rotational edge piece, but it may take a while.
Green Bay Packers - Eric Stokes, CB
Eric Stokes was an excellent corner in the strong SEC conference his entire college career. His success against such high competition inspires confidence that he was the right draft choice for the Packers.
Stokes is a bit like Jaycee Horn in the sense that he may have to adjust his style to fit the physicality rules in the NFL. His rookie season may be filled with flags, but Stokes will ultimately adjust and become a good press-man corner in the NFL.
Buffalo Bills - Gregory Rousseau, EDGE
Many have mentioned Gregory Rousseau as a potential draft pick bust and it makes sense. Rousseau is as raw as they come and he isn't strong when it comes to technique. Plus, his athletic testing didnt pan out as one would have hoped.
Still, he's got incredible size and he did have 16 sacks in his 2019 season. Rousseau feels like a bust, but there's a possibility he pans out.
Baltimore Ravens - Jayson Oweh, EDGE
Jayson Oweh will be a bit of a project draft pick for the Baltimore Ravens. He didn't have a sack in his 2020 season and he needs a lot of coaching up.
Oweh is extremely athletic and he's got a ton of speed, but getting by on athletic ability doesn't always work in the NFL. Oweh will need to develop quickly if he wants to turn into a quality pass rusher for the Ravens.
Tampa Buccaneers - Joe Tryon, EDGE
Joe Tryon will end up having a successful NFL career. He's a strong player and he's explosive off the line of scrimmage. Because the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have so much proven talent, Tryon may not get to shine right away but by the end of his rookie contract, he'll have proven himself worthy of a first-round draft selection.